Is BN’s fortune rising?
All things remaining constant, a lower turnout should have seen the majority shrink proportionally in the Pengkalan Kubor by-election.
Ishmael Lim, FMT
No political party should take a by-election lightly. It should be viewed as a barometer in between general elections because there is little that would tell the prevailing mood and perceptions of voters. It should be a weather forecast of sorts to see if it will be sunny or rainy in the days ahead.
The by-election in Pengkalan Kubor last Thursday saw a lower turnout of voters compared to the turnout during GE13 last year.
The state seat fell vacant with the death of Umno’s Noor Zahidi Omar on August 20. Noor Zahidi beat PKR’s Saharun Ibrahim by 1,736 votes in GE13. Last Thursday, Umno’s Mat Razi Mat Ali beat PAS’ Wan Rosdi Wan Ibrahim by 2,635 votes.
Pengkalan Kubor lies in the district of Tumpat, near the Golok River and the Thai border.
What does a lower voter turnout mean?
A lower turnout in the context of a working day could mean that outstation voters did not feel it justified taking leave just to vote. When factoring in Hari Raya Haji on Oct 5, many would reserve the leave for the holiday.
The inconvenience should apply equally to BN and PAS supporters.
The lower turnout does not sufficiently explain the poor showing of PAS, as BN has increased its majority quite significantly under the same conditions.
All things remaining constant, a lower turnout should have seen the majority shrink proportionally.
With Kelantan being the stronghold state of PAS, shouldn’t PAS have fared better than PKR? It appears that the logic of physics doesn’t explain why the apple falls upwards in Pengkalan Kubor for PAS.
Does this mean that BN is now in the driver’s seat in Kelantan? Is Najib’s new found confidence justified, or is this merely an aberration in a larger pattern?
Are we seeing BN’s fortune rise because of PR’s misfortune?
