Malaysian politics at a major crossroads

Kapil Sethi, Malay Mail Online

In the midst of the sedition blitz against all and sundry is an underlying sense of bewilderment at the actions of the government and what sparked this current crackdown, seemingly out of nowhere.

The list of what is seditious also seems to be getting more and more arbitrary, with calling the police monkeys to cursing Umno to criticising the National Civics Bureau (BTN) of brainwashing and being racist all being worthy of investigation as attempts to overthrow the government unlawfully.

On the other hand, the opposition points at the seeming impunity with which threats to burn the bible and abolish vernacular schools are ignored, while statements insulting royalty, questioning the jurisdiction of Sharia courts and simply reporting the news on the Penang state PPS are instantly taken cognisance of and the people concerned hauled up for questioning.

A number of commentators have thus accused the government of selective prosecution and practising double standards. But is that really the case? Ever since Barisan Nasional (BN) lost the popular vote in the last general election and the whole Apa lagi Cina Mahu? controversy erupted, there has been a slow albeit consistent shift in the government’s approach to its citizenry, with a keen eye on GE 14.

The first to be affected were the non-Malay component parties in the coalition. They have slowly but surely been marginalised to the point that even when MCA leaders protested against the call to abolish vernacular education, they were told by Umno leaders to mind their own business.

Every time MCA, MIC or Gerakan have tried to speak about minority rights in the last one year, they have been told to regain support from their communities before they talk to Umno, to the extent of a frustrated Waytha Moorthy’s resignation from the government.

Add to that the recent warning to all parties to honour the so called “social contract”, where no criticism of Islam, the special position of the Malays, the rulers and the national language are allowed. Whatever observers may think of the quality of laws being used, the government of the day is fully entitled to use the full force of the law against those deemed transgressors of the contract.

The deputy prime minister’s famous assertion that he is Malay first and Malaysian second seems to have become the acknowledged position of Umno.

Instead of a jockeying for dominance between the moderates led by the prime minister and the conservatives within Umno, there seems to be a very clear and consistent strategy since the last GE to focus on the Malay community as its vote bank for the future. Clearly the once triumphantly inescapable 1 Malaysia slogan has all but vanished in the face of the ascendancy of Ketuanaan Melayu or Malay supremacy.

If the other communities have no time or respect for Umno, it believes it does not need them either to win elections. Not if it can consolidate the Malay vote in its favour by being seen to be the champion of the race and by creating fissures in the unity of the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance by putting pressure on the Islamist PAS to state its stand on Malay-Muslim rights .

The opportunity to do so was handed to it on a platter by the much ridiculed, imbecilic Kajang Move. Whatever complicated outcomes Rafizi Ramli might have dreamt up for PR, it certainly helped Umno in bringing to light the fundamental schism between the conservative PAS and the more liberal DAP and PKR.

The split over the candidature of Wan Azizah and the seeming defiance by DAP and PKR of the wishes of the Selangor Sultan in the Menteri Besar (MB) crisis will only help in creating the perception that the hands of PAS are tied by its partners and only Umno is the real defender of the Malay race, religion and royalty.

In this context, the sedition blitz is merely the execution of an oft stated unequivocal position of Umno as a defender of Islam and Malay rights. From the perspective of this strategy, there is no double standard and no selective prosecution, only a consistent application of the law against those that challenge the new found move of Umno to the far right, and it’s making it clear that this is an Umno, not a BN government.

Far from wanting to silence its critics, which is next to impossible in this day and age, the strategy is about galvanising its base and widening its appeal within the wider Malay community.

Even there a more aggressive and singular interpretation of what Islam means is taking the place of the PM’s oft touted moderate stance. Witness the government Department of Islamic Development Malaysia (JAKIM)’s call to ban the Global Movement of Moderates Foundation’s (GMM) proposed roundtable on Islamic fundamentalism because it involves a liberal Islamic speaker from overseas.

This, when the founder-patron of GMM is none other than the prime minister! Protecting Malaysian Islam from liberals and Shias clearly takes precedence over debating moderation today.

Intrinsically, there is nothing wrong with Umno adopting such a position and approach as it follows an established marketing strategy used by corporations in adopting a position which resonates with its audience and delivering to it consistently.

The test of its effectiveness will be at the ballot box. The real issue is whether the alternative can articulate an equally relevant position and deliver to it consistently.

Now that Umno is BN and has clearly stated its position, can PR respond? Asalkan Bukan Umno (ABU) is not a strategy any longer. After the Selangor debacle, it can no longer get away by preaching liberal multiculturalism in the form of Malaysian Malaysia to one set of voters and an Islamic agenda and Malayness to another. It needs to redefine and rearticulate what the coalition believes in.

As of now Umno has a clear political strategy with appeal, a united cadre (barring an increasingly lonely Saifuddin Abdullah), a growing economy, BR1M and the power of incumbency on its side. PR does not even come across as one coalition any more.

If an election is called today, despite concerns over corruption, crime and inflation, there will only be one clear winner. And it may not even need any other component parties to win.

Can PR get PAS to genuinely adopt its race-neutral, needs-based agenda? Can it unite to stand for an inclusive, caring, forward looking political ethos that values liberty of thought and action and moves government from the issues of race and religion to bread and butter issues of good governance?

Does it have the courage to take a long term view and expel component parties that do not believe in the same? Can it allow Guan Eng and Hadi Awang to take diametrically opposed positions on issues any longer? Can it even get PKR in the shape of Azmin Ali to get the Bibles back in Selangor or stand up for the rights of the non-Malays in the Oktoberfest issue?

If it can, Malaysia can compare the appeal of two very distinct worldviews in the next general election and see in which direction the silent majority of its citizens want the country to head. Conservative vs. Liberal, Secular vs. Theocratic, Modern vs. Traditional, Needs-based vs Race-based.

If it cannot, expect fragmentation of the PR vote to the point that winning the popular vote again may take another 50 years.