Anwar’s destiny and Pakatan’s future

Lim Sue Goan, My Sinchew

Remember when the vote counting was still going on at around 7pm on May 5 last year, and how Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim all of a sudden declared that Pakatan Rakyat had won the federal administration?

Unfortunately, his claim never materialised, and he lost the opportunity to “redeem himself” in last year’s general election resulting in his destiny still “hanging on the line” until this day.

The Federal Court started hearing Anwar’s appeal against his sodomy conviction today. If he loses the appeal, he will have to go to jail again, and Pakatan leaders have mentally prepared themselves for the worst-case scenario.

This reminds us of what happened in 1999, when Anwar was sentenced to six years in prison for abuse of power, and again in 2000, for six years in prison for sodomy. It appears that history is very likely to repeat itself this year although the eventuality could be different.

Before Anwar was arrested in September 1998, he traveled across the country to give his speeches and initiated the Reformasi movement culminating in a massive rally in front of Dataran Merdeka on September 20.

In a similar manner, Anwar is also traveling extensively in the country now although the passion seems to have been much suppressed now. If Anwar were to go to jail again, it is almost certain that Pakatan would wage some counteractions but it remains doubtful whether those campaigns will still be able to bring back the powerful passion of some 16 years earlier.

Thanks to the Reformasi spirit, the 1999 general election saw a heavy setback on the part of Umno, which only managed to clinch 72 seats although the ruling coalition still held on to the two-thirds majority thanks to bigger wins by MCA, MIC and Gerakan.

In 2004, Barisan Nasional (BN) scored a landslide victory, with PKR barely able to hold the single Permatang Pauh seat.

It can therefore be seen that the effects from a single leader is not likely to last too long. Moreover, Anwar’s image has been somewhat tarnished after the failed Kajang Move and the Selangor MB crisis.

As if that is not enough, we still have at least three more years to go before the next general elections, giving Umno ample time to slowly dissolve the impact from this case.

Indeed, Anwar and Pakatan were under tremendous pressure from the BN in 2008 and 2013. Without working harder to seek further breakthroughs, there is a limit to what Pakatan’s influence could reach, as Umno is still firmly in grip of kampung votes.

PAS has shown initial signs of alienation from the pact, allowing Umno to be less concerned now about the drift of Malay votes.

If Anwar were to be put behind bars for more than one year, a by-election will have to be called in Permatang Pauh, and his wife Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail is seen as a very likely candidate.

PKR is anticipated to win the seat without much difficulty, but the question is, with Anwar now behind bars, who is going to lead Pakatan Rakyat?

PKR president Dr Wan Azizah lacks the competency to do the job, and although the secretary-general Rafizi Ramli is a master whistleblower, he lacks leadership skills and experience.

Deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali is now maximizing his people-friendly style having just been crowned the new Selangor MB. If he is able to do something positive for the people of Selangor such that the negative impression from party infightings would be reversed, he will very likely win the mandate from within the pact to replace his mentor Anwar Ibrahim. That being said, Azmin must overcome the factional resistance from his party first.

PAS is not expected to win the trust of DAP and Chinese voters to lead the opposition front owing to the hudud law controversy.

The “post-Anwar” era is likely to descend very soon. But how will Pakatan handle this succession problem at a time when the PAS crisis had yet to be defused?

There isn’t much Pakatan can do by trying to woo the sympathy votes like in the past. Pakatan must clearly see the political reality today to come up with more powerful civic campaigns to outdo Umno.

Umno has deepened its racist politics soon after GE13, allowing the conservatives to issue seditious remarks while interrupting the Oktoberfest and Halloween celebrations. It will be disastrous to Malaysia if such receding policies are allowed to tear the nation apart.

As such, Pakatan must know how to amass the people’s power to block the advances of conservative and extremist thinkings. Meanwhile, they must also mobilise the public once again to build up their faith in democratic politics.