How Dubai caused the Arab awakening
When you see someone like you succeeding next door while your society is not, it becomes political.
Thomas Friedman, Today Online
Ever since the Arab awakening in late 2010, America has lurched from one policy response to another. We tried decapitation without invasion in Libya; it failed. We tried abdication in Syria; it failed. We tried democratisation in Egypt, endorsing the election of the Muslim Brotherhood; it failed. We tried invasion, occupation, abdication and, now, reintervention in Iraq and, although the jury is still out, only a fool would be optimistic.
Maybe, the beginning of wisdom is admitting that we do not know what we are doing out here and, more importantly, that we do not have the will to invest in overwhelming force for the time it would take to reshape any of these places — and, even if we did, it is not clear that it would work.
So if the Middle East is a region we can neither fix nor ignore, what is left? I’m for “containment” and “amplification”. How so? Where there is disorder — Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya — collaborate with regional forces to contain it, which is basically what we are doing today. I just hope we do not get in more deeply.
Where there is imposed order — Egypt and Algeria — work quietly with the government to try to make that order more decent, just, inclusive and legitimate. Where there is order and decency — Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon,Kurdistan and the United Arab Emirates — do everything to amplify it, so it becomes more consensual and sustainable. And where there is order, decency and democracy — Tunisia — give it as much money as it asks for, (which we have not done).
But never forget: We can only amplify what they do. When change starts or depends on our staying power, it is not self-sustaining — the most important value in international relations. When it starts with them, it can be self-sustaining. The best example of that is the UAE and its crown jewel — Dubai. I had several conversations on this question: Did Dubai cause the Arab awakening?
Wait. How could it have? The UAE and Dubai are absolute monarchies that tolerate no opposition or real freedom of the press. It is because Dubai, beyond the glitz, glass and real-estate booms and busts, has become the Manhattan of the Arab world — a place where young Arabs from across the region can come to realise their potential in the arts, business, media, education and technology start-ups (with world-class firms), and in their culture, language, religious milieu, food preferences, music and clothing.
