What will World War III have to do with Malaysia?

Raggie Jessy

Russian flags seem to fly high in Crimea these days; heavily armoured tanks were seen crashing through Crimean barricades, leaving military and air bases looking like war torn zones out of a sci-fi movie, when in fact, disheartened Ukrainian army personnel were really being ushered out, seen in civilian attire and carrying only cartons of personal belongings. Evocative of a retrenchment exercise, it was a coup, regardless how Vladimir Putin wishes to christen it.

The Russian offensive followed months of protests that sent Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych packing, while Ukraine’s constitution was rescinded to accommodate a variant that predates to Yanukovych’s instatement as President. Putin was quick to fix Ukraine’s wagon in retribution when unmarked troopers besieged Crimea in heavily armoured personnel carriers, seizing a territory that probably helped assuage Putin’s anxiety over access to the Port of Sevastopol and Moscow’s Crimean military bases, delineated in a 1997 treaty that expires in 2042.

Many an analyst has attributed access to the port and Moscow’s military bases as grounds to Putin’s Crimean offensive, although, the truth may extend well beyond Ukrainian or Russian shores. In any case, Crimea boasts affluence in petroleum resources both on and offshore, strategically dictating Moscow’s commitment to The Budapest Memorandums, which affirm commitment by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the United States of America and the Russian Federation, towards Ukraine’s sovereignty. Accordingly, these nations have committed to refrain from using their weapons against Ukraine for reasons other than self-defence and in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

Now, on to some important questions:

1.     How and why is Putin’s conquest of Crimea an Obama concern?

The Budapest Memorandums assure Ukraine assistance by nations committed to the Charter should it come under threat by nuclear powers, whereby Ukraine becomes a victim in an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression, in which nuclear weapons are used. Upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine liquidated its nuclear arsenal and turned it in to the Russian Federation, effectively rendering the once powerful Soviet arm a toothless sovereign.

Putin’s offensives in Crimea are perceived by the Obama administration as being in direct violation of various charters Moscow committed to. In his defence, Putin has pig-headedly denied direct Russian military infiltration into Crimean soil, despite contrary claims by the US. While some Malaysians are quick to draw parallels with Israel’s assaults on Gaza, many fail to comprehend the historical pertinence to Obama’s apparent concern over Crimea. Well, that’s the gist of it anyway; the real problem is far too deep rooted to be addressed in this simple article.

Withal, Putin’s administration has been vocal in accusing the US and the European Union of funding a Ukrainian Revolution that led to Viktor Yanukovych’s ouster. That isn’t farfetched either; America has been illicitly brokering regime changes in several regions globally, with Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional Government not spared. But more of that later; Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, presented evidence of a letter to which Yanukovych was signatory, pleading for Russian military offensives in restoring Ukrainian law and order. Thence the gridlock; Putin was in fact ‘invited’ to resolve a Ukrainian crisis by Yanukovych, who was by then a dud. Now, this follows a Revolution that resulted in a new Presidency, which, to the Americans, was probably a due process of democracy and the right of a people to circumscribe their representation.

2.     How is Putin’s conquest linked to China?

To begin with, China is way off Russian charts for anyone to fathom a trail to Putin’s Crimea conquest. Rest assured, China’s emergence as a cogent economic force has hurt America in more ways than one could possibly perceive, with the Obama administration wary of China’s rise to global supremacy. It’s just a matter of time before the US draws its curtains as an economic back-number, with China’s currency rigging global finance. Now, that’s a premeditated presumption that has the world stifled, with many silently hoping for China to go bust. It’s an unspoken truth, but one both China and Putin comprehend clearly. With Moscow’s economy in the dumps and US-Russia relations akin to a bubble on the verge of bursting, a global scaled war may just do for Putin what World War II did for the United States of America.

Sino-Russian relations have improved tremendously following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In fact, Russia and China signed a treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. President Hu of the People’s Republic was cognizant of an American conquest of the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea. He was known to have said that the “Malacca Dilemma” remains key to China’s energy security, and hinted of powers desperately trying to enlarge their dominion of influence in the waterways. Perhaps now one could anticipate the need for the People’s Republic to rub shoulders with Putin.

In 2002, the US pronounced Southeast Asia a second front in the war on terrorism; the unilateral move was signature in its pursuit to control the straits by means of a significant naval presence. But the idea was ridiculed like a shot by Malaysia and Indonesia, who dismissed Washington’s proposed Regional Maritime Security Initiative. Now, the idea was established at a time when Abdullah Badawi was poised to succeed Mahathir as Malaysian Prime Minister. As the Americans construed it, Abdullah’s presence would import a weak era in Malaysian premiership.

Early in 2010, Singapore raised an alert to its ships of purported terrorist threats, simultaneously playing up the issue of control within a route vital to sea trade, and one of the world’s busiest. The stakes were up for Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and China to ward off possible intrusions by terrorists in the straits.

Terrorism remains the US trump card in flexing its muscle on nations against its broader China agenda; the Malacca Straits had now become a point of interest in their purported quest to maintain a form of regional security by actualizing an American naval presence within the channel. Singapore stands as a pivot to American interests within the region, with heavy US representation at its Sembawang and Paya Lebar bases. In consummating their Straits conquest, the US needs Penang to resume its historical heritage as a feeder entrepot to Singapore.

3.     Did Putin bring MH17 down?

Surely, I do not know. But he has a hell of a lot of reasons to do so. In effecting a global war, Putin would have to drag China and Pakistan, two of Moscow’s presumed allies, into the fray. This, of course, would trigger chaos as Pakistan would surely flex its muscle on India, an American ally. That said, world war III would be demarcated by two distinct nuclear powered axes; a Russian pivot with a Sino-Pakistan alliance, and an America-UK-India pact.

This isn’t mere speculation; Sergey Chemezov, head of Russian state-run technologies corporation Rostec, announced recently the revocation of an embargo against the supply of weapons and hardware to Pakistan. As we speak, Moscow is almost concluding negotiations pertaining to the supply of several M-25 helicopter gunships to Islamabad. The sudden warmth in relations has severely altered regional power quotients, with newly anointed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a fix. Besides, it seems paramount for Putin to rope Pakistan into his inner circles in anticipating a post-American Taliban insurgency within Afghanistan.

Though an ally, getting China directly involved would require an effort to extend the war into the cradle of an American foreign interest; South East Asia. With the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea demarcating the Malaysian Peninsula, America’s primary concern for some years now, it became apparent that Malaysia needed to be roped into the fray to coerce Obama into compliance through Singapore and possibly, Kuala Lumpur. Now, that would convince President Xi Jinping to offset risks of upsetting Sino-American trade relations in favour of a Sino-Russian offensive against America. It is for this reason, that Putin may have brought MH17 to an end. This remains a stark possibility.

4.     What of the ‘17’ prophecy?

Frankly, I needn’t go into much detail on that or other like prophecies and conspiracy theories. Suffice to say, MH17’s end seemed more deliberate than it did, a fluke. These theories and possibly even, editorials or videos doing their rounds in social media, are crafted as diversions to avert attention from what may be brewing in the pot. Contrary to opinions churned out by some bloggers and media activists, MH17’s tragic end was not a Zionist attempt at diverting attention from the Gaza strip, nor is it a coded message of any sort. It seems more likely to be an attempt by Putin to propel the world into a war, towards the end of America’s economic supremacy and the rise of a Sino-Russian superpower. With Obama’s popularity flagging, a war of such proportions may just be what he needs, which incidentally, would offset the next Presidential elections, given an inevitable state of emergency.

It is left to be seen if Obama declares war on Russia.