Umno is a wounded and cornered animal

By MT Webmaster Last updated Dec 30, 2014

The next general election is the final test, the third test after the first two in 2008 and 2013. Umno is now a wounded and cornered animal. But then wounded and cornered animals that are desperate to survive can be very vicious and lethal. So be very careful how you stroke such animals. Stroke it the wrong way and its final act before death would be to bite off your head.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was of the view that the then Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, were the cause of the 2008 general election disaster — a disaster for Barisan Nasional, that is, although the opposition viewed the 2008 general election as a success.

So Dr Mahathir wanted Pak Lah ousted and replaced.

By convention, when the Prime Minister resigns, dies, or is kicked out, his deputy usually takes over. And in this case Pak Lah’s deputy was Najib Tun Razak. Hence if and when Pak Lah goes, Najib should be the one to take over.

And I said by convention, because it is not by constitution that the number two takes over when the number one slot is vacant. The number two could easily be by-passed for, say, one of the three Umno Vice-Presidents. After all, the Constitution is silent as far as the post of number two is concerned.

But how, in the first place, did Najib become the number two? Was Najib Pak Lah’s choice? No, Pak Lah’s choice for number two was Muhyiddin Yassin. It was Dr Mahathir who wanted Najib as the number two. And that was why Pak Lah hesitated for a couple of months before appointing the number two.

Pak Lah took over as Prime Minister on 31st October 2003, the day that Dr Mahathir officially left office. But for more than two months until 7th January 2004 Malaysia did not have a Deputy Prime Minister. Pak Lah could not decide whom to appoint as his number two — his own choice or Dr Mahathir’s choice.

Then the senior civil servants invited Dr Mahathir to a farewell dinner they were planning to throw in his honour. Dr Mahathir responded that he has already left office so why the need for a farewell dinner? If they want to honour him with a farewell dinner then it should have been done before he leaves and not after he has left.

Finally Dr Mahathir agreed to the farewell dinner but only if Prime Minister Pak Lah was invited as well. So the senior civil servants approached Pak Lah and got him to agree to attend so that Dr Mahathir would also agree to the dinner.

Just before the dinner started, the press asked Dr Mahathir for his comments (as they usually do whenever they can ambush the old man). And Dr Mahathir’s comment was that he would like to thank Pak Lah for agreeing to appoint Najib as the Deputy Prime Minister.

Pak Lah, who as usual was half asleep, suddenly woke up like he never woke up before in his life. He was completely taken by surprise. The cat was now out of the bag, so to speak, although there was never a cat in the bag in the first place. Pak Lah was flustered and did not know what to do.

Dr Mahathir had executed probably the most brilliant political coup in his life. He put words into Pak Lah’s mouth and there was no way the Prime Minister could dispute this or call the old man a liar. Pak Lah kept silent for 24 hours and the next day be conceded defeat and announced that Najib was the new Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Now, just as Dr Mahathir felt he made a gross mistake in appointing Pak Lah as the Prime Minister in 2003, he also feels he made a mistake in appointing Najib the Deputy Prime Minister in 2004, that made it possible for him to take over as Prime Minister in 2009.

So, just as Dr Mahathir wanted Pak Lah out in 2006 (but which did not happen until three years later), the old man now also wants Najib out as well (which, if we go by convention, may also take three years to happen).

The reason that Dr Mahathir wanted Pak Lah out was because for 15 months before Pak Lah actually took over as Prime Minister, they were locked in negotiations and came to an agreement as to what Pak Lah can and cannot do once he takes over.

Unfortunately, after Pak Lah took over, he reneged on his agreement and broke all the promises he had made. The two main bones of contention were the Crooked Bridge and the double-tracking project, although there were more issues that displeased the old man.

However, Dr Mahathir wants Najib out for different reasons. And the main reason, amongst many, was the poor performance of Barisan Nasional in the 2013 general election, which was worse than the 2008 general election during the time of Pak Lah.

Dr Mahathir is of the view that the next general election is going to be tough for both Umno and Barisan Nasional. There is clear and present danger that Umno and Barisan Nasional may actually have to pack their bags and hand power to Pakatan Rakyat, with the probability that Anwar Ibrahim would become the new Prime Minister.

Can Anwar become the Prime Minister if he goes to jail for sodomy 2? There is no guarantee that the court will send Anwar to jail. The court may actually uphold his acquittal. That is an unknown factor at this point of time and Dr Mahathir cannot be too sure of it because of late the courts appear to be ruling in favour of those opposed to the government.

To be fair, the opposition supporters or those opposed to the government have won more court cases than they have lost, although the opposition constantly laments about the cases they lost without mentioning the even more cases that they won.

Hence Anwar may actually walk free and take over as Prime Minister come 2018 or so if Pakatan Rakyat does better in that election, as it did better in 2013 compared to 2008. And all Pakatan Rakyat needs is a further swing of 2-3%, not a large percentage, and for half the Sabah and Sarawak seats to fall to the opposition.

Some may say this could be difficult. But difficult is not impossible. Difficult is just hard work to be able to achieve it. And with Umno and Barisan Nasional shooting themselves in their own feet, they are actually kicking the ball into their own goal. It makes one wonder whether these Umno and Barisan Nasional people are actually Pakatan Rakyat Trojan Horses.

So, Dr Mahathir’s solution is simple. Replace Najib and Umno and Barisan Nasional are saved. Get the Malays to unite and Umno’s and Barisan Nasional’s future is secure. Once Najib is replaced Malaysian voters of all races would forgive the government and the Malays would all unite and rally behind the government.

But actually it is not as simple as that. 2008 and 2013 were the opening of the proverbial Pandora’s box. And, as we all know, once the Pandora’s box is opened it can never be closed again. As they say, you can never get the genie back into the bottle once you release it.

The voters have tasted blood. And they have come to like that taste. So they want more blood. And they do not just want Najib’s blood, as Dr Mahathir imagines. They want Umno’s blood and the blood of everyone who they view as the people behind all the wrongs that Malaysia has suffered.

To satisfy the bloodlust of the voters, it is not enough that Najib, plus maybe even his wife as well, are sacrificed at the altar. Also to be sacrificed must be Dr Mahathir himself plus Tun Daim Zainuddin and the scores of other ‘criminals’.

This is just like the Iranian Revolution of 1979. It is not enough that the Shah and his family are punished. 20,000 other running dogs and cronies of the Shah must also be executed. And it was an orgy of bloodshed that followed the Shah’s ouster before the appetite of the people could be satisfied.

There is very little that Dr Mahathir or Umno can do to unite the Malays. Dr Mahathir envies the Chinese. The Chinese are no longer divided by DAP, MCA and Gerakan like how it was in the past. MCA and Gerakan are no longer relevant and the Chinese are united under Pakatan Rakyat, in particular under DAP. Dr Mahathir wishes that this was also true for the Malays and it burns him up that the Malays refuse to unite like the Chinese are.

But then the Malays have never been united. They had never been united since long before Merdeka and will never be united until probably the end of time. And this is why Dr Mahathir keeps lamenting about Malay unity, or in this case the lack of Malay unity.

Can ousting Najib bring back non-Malay support for Umno? Would replacing Najib make the Malays unite? I fear not because, while the Chinese may have common ground to unite, the Malays are standing on different platforms. We have the Islamist Malays, the Nationalist Malays and the Liberal Malays. Hence the Malays will forever be separated by these boundaries and will never be able to meet in the middle.

What is the common Malay agenda? The Chinese have a common agenda — they want Umno buried in an unmarked grave. So what is the common agenda of the Malays? There is none. There is no common agenda for the Malays. The Malays have three different agendas and these three agendas are what separate the Malays into three groupings.

The only way for the Malays to unite would be for Umno, PAS and PKR to merge, or at least to form a new Malay coalition party. But that can never happen. It would be easier to get DAP to agree to Hudud than to get Umno, PAS and PKR to merge. So that idea is a non-starter.

The next possibility would be to win back at least 30% or 40% of the Chinese vote (and maybe 50% of the Indian vote). That, too, is impossible even if Najib, Dr Mahathir, Daim and 100 other Umno warlords are arrested and sent to jail.

That is the dilemma facing Umno, Barisan Nasional and Dr Mahathir. There is very little they can do to stop the tide. I can imagine how helpless King Canute must have felt when he failed to stop the tide and uttered, “Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings.”

So what are Dr Mahathir and Umno going to do? Well, if I know the answer to that question then I should be the one to take over from Najib. Alas, I do not have any answers just like they did not have any answers for the Shah, Marcos, Suharto and many more who once faced the same predicament that Dr Mahathir and Umno are now facing.

While I am not able to predict what will happen in the next general election, I am able to predict one thing. If Umno survives the next general election then it is going to remain in power for some time to come. And if Pakatan Rakyat does not take over in the next general election then it is going to remain the opposition for some time to come as well. That is the only thing I can predict.

Raja Petra Kamarudin RPK