Will Anwar’s strategy work?
The success of Anwar’s plan, however, depends on the support from PAS, like it did for the Reformasi 1.0 movement back in 1998. However, PAS under Abdul Hadi Awang will not support Anwar. Hence Anwar wants Hadi ousted in June 2015. And that was why PasMa was created.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
When it became more or less confirmed that Anwar Ibrahim would not be able to escape jail, his political strategists such as Dr Rahim Ghouse, Johari Abdul, Saifuddin Nasution, Rafizi Ramli, etc., (the same people who planned the ‘Kajang Move’ and the ouster of Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim) told Anwar that it is better he leaves the country and continues the ‘struggle’ from outside Malaysia.
Initially Anwar had agreed to run away. If he were to be sent to jail for five years or 60 months, after a one-third remission he would only be free in 40 months or around May-June 2018 or thereabouts — which means after the next general election for sure.
Then, after his release, he would be barred from contesting the general elections for five years. So he would miss the 2023 general election as well and would only be able to contest the 2028 general election (unless the general election is called earlier and not five years in between).
That would make Anwar around 80 years old and a bit too old for most peoples’ liking — if he were still alive, that is.
Three countries have already agreed to grant Anwar political asylum so it made sense that he leaves the country just like what Khomeini, Trotsky, Lenin, Stalin, and many more great revolutionaries did. They all left the country to fight from outside and retuned to take power after the revolution was successful and the government had been toppled.
About two weeks before sentencing, Anwar changed his mind and decided to stay after all, which everyone thought was a silly idea. What can he achieve behind bars and with no prospects to ever contest the general election even if he lives to a ripe old age of 88?
Anwar then explained that his strategy is to mobilise the younger generation into a Reformasi 2.0 movement — like he did more than 16 years ago in 1998 with the Reformasi 1.0 movement — and use this ‘chaos’ to pressure the government into releasing him. (In 1998 these youth were still in kindergarten or primary school and did not participate in the Reformasi 1.0 movement).
Anwar said money is no problem and he has at his disposal millions to use for this exercise — which confirms what Malaysia Today revealed earlier that Anwar wants to spend RM100 million on organising street protests (and which he had asked the then Selangor Menteri Besar, Khalid Ibrahim, to finance through the state, but which Khalid refused, and which was why Anwar wanted him ousted).
It is rumoured that the new Selangor Menteri Besar, Azmin Ali, has not yet indicated whether he will help fund the Reformasi 2.0 movement so Anwar is holding back consent for Azmin to be appointed the new Opposition Leader. If Azmin refuses to fork out the RM100 million then the post of Opposition Leader would go to someone else.
To gain sympathy and to make sure that the Reformasi 2.0 movement garners support, Anwar will start complaining about his spinal/back problem. They will also raise concerns about Anwar’s safety and security and about the danger of him being harmed or poisoned while in prison. Is this going to be Arsenic 2.0?
Basically, Anwar will rehash the old script that he used in 1998-2001.
The success of Anwar’s plan, however, depends on the support from PAS, like it did for the Reformasi 1.0 movement back in 1998. However, PAS under Abdul Hadi Awang will not support Anwar. Hence Anwar wants Hadi ousted in June 2015. And that was why PasMa was created.
In short, without PAS, the Reformasi 2.0 movement will fail because Anwar will not be able to mobilise the crowd like he did in 1998 — which was a mainly PAS crowd.
So let us see what happens in June and whether Hadi is still going to be the party leader after that. If they can kick out Hadi then the Reformasi 2.0 movement may succeed after all. If not then Anwar will wish he had taken the advice of his political strategists and had left the country to continue his fight outside Malaysia like many other great revolutionaries have being doing for centuries, Prophet Muhammad included.
