Conclusions we can draw from Permatang Pauh results
Sin Chew Daily
The results of Permatang Pauh by-election have told us a few things:
1. The support rates for both BN and Pakatan Rakyat have remained largely unchanged.
Based on the results of the last general elections, those voting for BN (or Pakatan) for the state assembly would normally vote for BN (of Pakatan) also for the parliamentary seat.
As such, we can draw a comparison between the support for BN and Pakatan in the three state constituencies under Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency in this by-election, and that in GE13.
The support rates for BN and Pakatan Rakyat during GE13 were as follows: Permatang Pasir (33.05 per cent for BN, 66.95 per cent for Pakatan), Penanti (42.88 per cent for BN, 57.12 per cent for Pakatan) and Seberang Jaya (44.81 per cent for BN, 54.23 per cent for Pakatan).
In this by-election, the support rates for the same state constituencies under Permatang Pauh are: Permatang Pasir (about 35 per cent for BN, about 64 per cent for Pakatan), Penanti (about 42 per cent for BN, about 57 per cent for Pakatan) and Seberang Jaya (about 45 per cent for BN, about 54 per cent for Pakatan).
From here we can see that the support rates for both BN and Pakatan have remained largely the same since two years ago.
2. Pakatan Rakyat has been hitting on the GST issue real hard this time, but even that is not translated into significant rise in vote gain. Does that mean Malay voters are not against the GST? Perhaps some politicians would claim this way, but it is very unscientific.
The hudud law issue has not significantly drained the Chinese votes from Pakatan to BN, but that does not mean the Chinese community in Permatang Pauh is receptive to hudud. Indeed BN has made some marginal gains in places with higher Chinese concentration, but can that be interpreted as Chinese voters have swung towards BN? While some politicians might claim so but again, it is unscientific.
Among the three state constituencies under Permatang Pauh, PKR’s support in PAS stronghold Permatang Pasir is better than in the other two state constituencies. The turnout here is also higher than that in the other two consistencies, at 73.8 per cent.
3. As a conclusion, no matter how the politicians have claimed, this by-election is by no means a public referendum on any particular issue. The facts that this by-election show us are that PKR’s candidate has defeated Umno’s, and that compared to the last general elections, the support for both political camps has not changed much.
If we must interpret the outcome of this by-election, all that we can say is that those who used to support Pakatan continue to support Pakatan, while those who used to support BN still back BN today.
