The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 24)

By MT Webmaster Last updated May 13, 2015

After wrongly predicting the Rompin and Permatang Pauh by-election majority votes I do not dare forecast the number of seats or number of votes that Pakatan Rakyat will win in GE 2015. But I think most people will agree that if Umno is split into Team A and Team B, if the non-Umno parties desert Barisan Nasional, and if Dr Mahathir backs Azmin for Prime Minister, Pakatan Rakyat is going to form the next government.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

When you have lived long enough you will most likely see history repeating itself. For example, the world saw the first and second French Revolutions, the first and second World Wars, and so on. And now we are going to see the second Team A versus Team B tussle in Umno after the first one in 1987.

For those Umno diehards reading this do not get too alarmed. This is not the first time that Umno broke up and it is not going to be the last. If you stay alive long enough you are going to see Umno break up again in future. That is how life is, a constant cycle of birth, death and rebirth.

Umno was formed in 1946 not to fight for independence from Britain, as the spin-doctors are fond of telling us. It was to oppose the creation of the Malayan Union, which the British abandoned in 1948 in favour of the Federation of Malaya or Persekutuan Tanah Melayu in Bahasa Malaysia.

Just a mere five years later in 1951, Umno split when its founder, Onn Jaafar, left the party due to a disagreement about opening the party to non-Malays and at the same time the Islamists left due to a disagreement about the Islamic agenda (or rather the lack of Islamic agenda) of Umno.

Both Onn Jaafar and the Islamists set up new parties and while Onn Jaafar’s party did not gain traction and eventually faded into the sunset the Islamists did better and today that party is known as PAS.

Twenty years later Umno almost split again and was saved only because Tunku Abdul Rahman voluntarily stepped down to make way for the Young Turks. If Tunku had been stubborn and had tried to hold on to power there would have been a serious tussle for power and we would have seen Umno split into two, yet again.

Then, 18 years on, Umno split, yet again. However we have already spoken about this in the earlier episode(s) in this series so I do not need to repeat what I have already written. What I have not touched on yet is how Team B came into being and how Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was sort of tricked into leading Team B.

In 1987, Tun Musa Hitam resigned as the Deputy Prime Minister due to his differences with Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. One of those differences was that Dr Mahathir refused to sack Tengku Razaleigh and instead only demoted him from Finance Minister to Trade and Industry Minister. (There were other more saucy reasons but I will not mention those in case minors are also reading this article).

Musa then invited his archenemy, Tengku Razaleigh, as his guest-of-honour in his Johor division and during his speech Musa announced that Tengku Razaleigh was going to challenge Dr Mahathir for the Umno Presidency.

Everyone was taken by surprise, Tengku Razaleigh included. Tengku Razaleigh, however, just kept quiet and said nothing.

Tengku Razaleigh, as is normal Umno courtesy, then invited Musa as the guest-of-honour in his Gua Musang division in Kelantan. For a second time Musa announced that Tengku Razaleigh was going to challenge Dr Mahathir for the Umno Presidency and, yet again, Tengku Razaleigh just kept quiet and said nothing.

Then Abdul Manan Othman, the then Member of Parliament for Kuala Terengganu, invited Tengku Razaleigh as the guest-of-honour in his division and for the third time Manan announced that Tengku Razaleigh was going to challenge Dr Mahathir for the Umno Presidency.

This time Tengku Razaleigh did not just keep quiet and say nothing. He confirmed he would be challenging Dr Mahathir for the Umno Presidency and that Musa would be challenging Ghafar Baba for the Deputy Presidency.

Thus Team B was born, in Kuala Terengganu, to challenge Team A for the Umno leadership.

We all know the rest of the story so no need to go into all that — including the part where Umno was declared illegal and Umno Baru and Semangat 46 were formed, etc.

After that, of course, 12 years later, Umno split, yet again, and Parti Keadilan Nasional was formed, now called Parti Keadilan Rakyat or PKR.

So you see, Umno’s history is a constant cycle of births, deaths and rebirths. Some, such as the Independence of Malaya Party, Parti Negara, and Semangat 46, died off. Others such as PAS and PKR survived and grew in strength.

Today, we are seeing yet one more episode in that cycle. Just like in 1987, there appears to be a Team B emerging in opposition to Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s Team A.

Will this new Umno Team B of 2015 die off like the one in 1987? Will the new Umno Team A of 2015 eventually transform into an Umno Lagi Baru and the Team B leave (or get kicked out from) Umno to form Semangat 1MDB?

Of course, Team B Baru (2015) can avoid the mistakes of 1987 and not confine its fight to an internal Umno power struggle. To prevent Umno spitting, yet again, Team B Baru can always challenge Team A Baru in Parliament and try to pass a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister.

To do that, however, Team B Baru will need to work with the opposition and the non-Umno parties in Barisan Nasional. Then, if Team B Baru can get at least 112 Members of Parliament to pass a vote of no confidence it would be impossible for Najib to remain the Prime Minister.

But then Najib does not have to leave with his tail between his legs like Tunku Abdul Rahman, Tun Hussein Onn, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, and Dr Mahathir himself did. Najib can ask His Majesty the Agong to dissolve Parliament to make way for a new general election.

Most likely if a new general election is called this year Umno would be wiped out. Barisan Nasional will collapse as some members of that coalition will leave and join the opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat.

Malaysia will have a new Prime Minister, but not from Umno. The new Prime Minister will have to be from the opposition and since Anwar Ibrahim is in jail then most likely it will have to be Azmin Ali.

Dr Mahathir may be many things but stupid is not one of them. And Dr Mahathir knows that if a vote of no confidence is successfully passed against Najib then the Prime Minister would have no choice but to dissolve Parliament to make way for a fresh general election.

And if that happens it will most likely not be someone from Umno who will be the new Prime Minister.

Is this why Dr Mahathir has been having private meetings and secret discussions with Azmin? Does Dr Mahathir realise that if a new general election is held he might have to back Azmin as the new Prime Minister?

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 23)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 22)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 21)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 20)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 19)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 18)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 17)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 16)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 15)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 14)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 13)

The Umno, PKR and PAS internal strife (part 12)