1MDB and Dr Mahathir’s flawed battleground
It can also be argued that Dr Mahathir created the system that we now see as Umno (Umno Baru to some), thus only its creator will know where the faults lie. As long as the party and government machinery is under the prime minister’s control, it will be hard to unseat him. And Dr Mahathir knows this.
Tariq Ismail, The Malaysian Insider
History has shown that by taking the initiative and adopting a surprise lightning attack (blitzkreig), wars can shift to the beligerent’s side if it is swift, especially with an army that has limited resources.
However, history has also proven blitzkreigs that concentrate on a localised firepower pointed to a weakness and creating disharmony among one’s enemy will awaken a sleeping giant and the repercussions severe.
Take the cases of the Pearl Harbour attack and Operation Barbarossa – with Japan taking control of the Pacific after Pearl Harbour and Nazi Germany conquered half of Russia in record time with Operation Barbarossa.
Both theatres of war were initially successful, but time eventually became the downfall for the two axis powers due their biggest strategic flaw: hitting at the enemy’s heart.
It is my belief that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is employing an ineffective campaign against 1MDB and Umno, the two vital organs belonging to the prime minister, who is currently under seige, waking up the sleeping giant.
Dr Mahathir is a master at blitzkreig and he is concentrating too much on 1MDB, trying to cause disharmony within government. This caused all branches of government to consolidate and rally behind the prime minister.
If I were a betting man, I would throw my money behind the good old Tun, due to his track record of unseating the incumbent.
However, with evidence and at face value, I think Dr Mahathir has stretched himself too thin due to the following reasons:
1. By attacking the core of government (prime minister and Umno), Dr Mahathir has allowed the consolidation of forces within the differing factions of Government and the ruling parties.
2. Dr Mahathir knows he is fighting the government of the day and the resources and machinery at the government’s disposal is vast. To unseat any government a vast war chest is needed. Furthermore, the government controls propaganda and enforcement which is vital in any war.
3. With the war chest, Dr Mahathir then requires an army. He may have the urban and educated population on his side, but the rural areas will be torn between the Man they hold dearly and the ruling party that they uphold. At the end of the day as time wears on, the rural Malays will eventually rally behind the Party that has provided them with their needs.
4. Over the years, Dr Mahathir has attacked and killed off many of his opponents who will always treat him with disdain and suspicion. The likes of Tengku Razaleigh, Tun Musa Hitam, and Tun Abdullah Badawi could have been worthy allies, but they, due to their age and having tasted Dr Mahathir’s wrath, will wish to sit out the battle between the former and current prime minister.
5. Within Umno, Dr Mahathir may have some divisions under his command (out of loyalty), but Umno is filled with warlords that cannot stomach a long war of attrition and will always back the party and the president even during times of uncertainty. Their daily bread and butter relies on this very fact. Thus hardcore Dr Mahathir supporter divisions will probably account to about 30 out of 199 divisions.
6. Even if Dr Mahathir has the backing of the 85 Pakatan Rakyat (PR) MPs, he needs at least 30 more within Parliament to even think of a vote of no confidence. The backbenchers club is headed by Tan Sri Shahrir Samad, a long-time foe of Dr Mahathir since the days of the Umno Team A and B split in the eighties. He too will be suspicious of Dr Mahathir’s intentions to topple the prime minister and will thus ally himself to his president.
7. Dr Mahathir has publicly stated that he wants Umno to still rule Malaysia after the next general election. This fact has also made Dr Mahathir to be on his own with PR sitting on the sideline and enjoying the show. The PR coalition is too fractionalised to even help Dr Mahathir in the blitzkreig.
It can also be argued that Dr Mahathir created the system that we now see as Umno (Umno Baru to some), thus only its creator will know where the faults lie. As long as the party and government machinery is under the prime minister’s control, it will be hard to unseat him. And Dr Mahathir knows this.
