Malays set to be kingmakers as Malay-majority seats mushroom, says Politweet

(Malay Mail Online) – The next two general elections will see Malay voters, mostly leaning towards Barisan Nasional (BN), determining the polls outcome as more seats turn into Malay-majority areas, pollster Politweet predicted.

Politweet also highlighted that the ruling coalition had made gains with Malay voters in the 13th general election, even in Kelantan and Penang that were won by Pakatan Rakyat (PR) then, with 51 per cent of Malay voters residing in peninsular Malaysia seats won by BN in the polls.

“It is clear that there is an increasing gap between the Malay electorate and other ethnic groups in terms of population. Assuming that voter registration rates remains the same across ethnic groups, Malay voters will be the deciding force in future elections.

“The shift is already taking place. Parties or politicians that rely on the non-Malay vote will face difficulties unless they change their strategy,” Politweet said in in its recent report on the pull of PKR, PAS and the DAP, which had contested Election 2013 as PR, with Malay voters.

According to Politweet, 138 out of 184 seats in peninsular Malaysia had an increase in the percentage of Malay voters between the 2013 and 2008 elections, transforming previously ethnic Chinese-majority seats—Serdang, Rasah, Kluang and Taiping—to mixed seats.

Meanwhile, seats like Lumut have transformed into a Malay-majority seat from a mixed one, while Raub is also close to becoming a Malay-majority seat with 49.8 per cent of Malay voters.

Based on the national census, Malays made up 44.32 per cent of the population in 1970, but rose to 55.07 per cent in 2010. Politweet estimated that Malays comprised 52.63 per cent of the total voters in the 2013 elections.

In comparison, the ethnic Chinese population shrank from 34.34 per cent in 1970 to 24.34 in 2010. The Chinese comprised 29.68 per cent of the electorate in 2013, according to Politweet.

The ethnic Indian population similarly grew smaller from 8.99 per cent in 1970 to 7.35 per cent in 2010.

Politweet also noted that BN increased its Malay support in five states: Kedah, Kelantan, Penang, Perak, and Kuala Lumpur in the Federal Territories, although it lost support in Terengganu, Johor and Malacca.

Putrajaya in the Federal Territories also saw 100 per cent of its Malay voters leaning towards BN in the 2013 polls, after its total voters doubled from 6,608 to 15,791, with 46 per cent of them transferred in from other states.

Politweet noted that 59 per cent of Malay voters in peninsular Malaysia leaned towards BN in Election 2013, a slight increase from 57 per cent in the 12th general election.

Support from Malay youth for BN, however, dropped from 57 per cent in the 12th general election to 54 per cent in the last election.

Politweet also suggested that PKR, PAS and the DAP might get a chance of winning more Malay-majority urban and semi-urban seats if only the PR coalition had stayed intact, as more young people register as voters.

“Despite young Malay voters in rural seats swinging to PR on a peninsular Malaysia-level, the shift was not enough to increase the share of these young voters leaning towards PR,” said the report.

PR won 89 seats in the 222-member Dewan Rakyat against BN’s 133 in the 13th general election. It also won 51 per cent of the popular vote while BN received just under 47 per cent.

PR, however, broke up recently over PAS’ renewed efforts to enforce hudud in Kelantan.