Without PAS, pollster predicts hard win in GE14 for new opposition pact
(Malay Mail Online) – Forsaking PAS could cost the new opposition pact a chance of unseating Barisan Nasional (BN) in the next election as the Islamist party had more Malay support than PKR and DAP in Election 2013, pollster Politweet revealed.
Furthermore, ditching PAS may lead to three-corner fights in the 14th general election (GE14) that would make it more likely for BN to win seats where the ruling coalition does not even command the support of the majority.
“PKR and DAP have not had as much success winning rural seats compared to PAS and BN. Without PAS continuing to represent PR in those seats, a new coalition will have difficulties winning GE14,” Politweet said in its recent report on the performance of the former Pakatan Rakyat (PR) federal opposition pact with Malay voters.
“The possibility of three-corner fights between PAS, BN and Gerakan Harapan Baru increases the likelihood of BN winning seats with less than 50 per cent of the vote,” it warned, referring to PAS splinter group Gerakan Harapan Baru (GHB).
Politweet added that such three-corner fights would even be possible in east coast states Kelantan and Terengganu, which are traditional PAS strongholds, if enough of the Islamist party’s leaders and members leave for the new party that GHB plans to form in September.
GHB is a splinter group made of PAS’ progressive leaders who were recently ousted in the 64-year-old party’s polls. The fledgling group plans to register a new Islamist party on September 14, less than three years before the next election will be called by 2018.
In the same report, Politweet pointed out that PAS had contested and won seats in the 13th general election with the most number of Malay voters compared to PKR and the DAP, with a high level of support maintained in both Kelantan and Terengganu.
PAS’ win in peninsular Malaysia was almost all in Malay-majority seats, winning 20 of such seats and 1.35 million votes from the predominant Malay community.
In comparison, PKR won 17 Malay-majority seats and received 1.22 million votes from the Malays, in addition to winning 11 mixed seats.
DAP only managed to win over 600,000 Malay votes, despite winning all 22 Chinese-majority seats and 1.48 million votes from the Chinese community.
However, the three opposition parties paled in comparison to BN, which won 77 Malay-majority seats and received over 3.2 million votes from the community.
This comes as Politweet predicts that the 14th and 15th general elections will see the Malay community becoming a major deciding force as more seats transform into Malay-majority seats.
The pollster also claimed that PAS has the highest support from Malay youths, with 73 per cent of the demographic in the seats it won leaning towards the party, an increase of 8 percentage points in 2013 compared to 2008.
“PAS made significant gains and maintained high average support levels from Malay voters in their seats…PAS’ gains in semi-urban and urban areas could be an indicator of future success in these areas,” said Politweet.
PKR, PAS and the DAP, which banded together as PR in the 13th general election, won 89 seats in the 222-member Dewan Rakyat against BN’s 133. It also won 51 per cent of the popular vote while BN received just under 47 per cent.
The coalition, which recently broke up over PAS’ renewed efforts to enforce hudud in Kelantan, had lost the Kota Damansara and Sungai Acheh state seats to BN in 2013 after both PAS and PKR put their candidates up against each other in multi-cornered fights.
