No repeat of 1987 or 1998
Ian McIntyre, The Heat
When Prime Minister and Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak wielded his axe to remove his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin from the Cabinet, memories of 1987 and 1998 came flooding back.
Many Umno members recalled those incidents as if it happened just yesterday when former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad went up against his party colleagues, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, in the 1987 and 1998 leadership tussles.
Both times, the party was split into two factions, which affected the political landscape and administration of the country. Now, years later, is the one-time Mahathir protégé, Najib, facing the same dilemma?
No, declare several Penang Umno insiders when met.
Preferring not to be named so as not to be misconstrued by the party hierarchy, the insiders were nonetheless eager to share their thoughts.
They say the public needs to understand the political creature that is Umno. To survive in Malaysian politics for some 60 years, the party has to have members who are adept at listening to voices on the ground.
Firstly, they reckoned that present day Umno is much weaker compared to that of 1987 and 1998. The party lost the popular vote in the 2013 general election, and the economy is not as impressive as it is made out to be.
“These underlying factors will make the likes of Muhyiddin and his allies think twice before attempting to dethrone Najib. Politics, after all, is the art of perception… and it is fluid.
“It can change over time. The saying that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics rings truer than ever in the Malaysian context,” they say.
There were fears among some that moves might be made at this Friday’s (July 31) Umno Supreme Council meeting to remove Muhyiddin and Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, who is one of the three elected vice-presidents since they were dropped from the Cabinet. However, the meeting has been called off.
Never before in the party’s history has an elected deputy president found himself left out of the federal Cabinet, so Umno has clearly headed into uncharted waters, the insiders say.
Malaysians are already reeling from higher prices due to the imposition of the Goods and Services Tax. Now, the ringgit’s volatility and depreciation are pushing up the cost of living to even higher levels.
Najib’s dilemma, however, is further compounded by the fact that the opposition has fired the people’s imagination due to its exposes and calls for transparency. By most accounts, they have begun to dominate the psyche of urban voters more strongly than in the 2013 general election.
All these calls for Umno to tread carefully when mitigating the dispute over how to manage and resolve the elephant in the room – 1MDB.
The situation today differs starkly with 1987, when Mahathir and Tengku Razaleigh were evenly matched politically. Hence, the former won by a slim majority to continue as party president.
However, in 1998, Mahathir had underestimated the clout that Anwar enjoyed with the opposition parties and his ties with civil society groups. This contributed to the groundswell which ultimately gave birth to the reformation movement which exists till today.
Although Najib’s current situation is different, it does not mean that he will be spared as the investigations into 1MDB’s operations have not been completed.
The economy may go sour on him, especially if the ringgit further spirals towards record lows against major currencies.
