Dr Mahathir knows the only way to oust Najib is to oust Umno


mt2014-corridors-of-power

So what needs to be addressed before they make their move on Najib would be who takes over after that and will this man still be an Umno man or an opposition man or the proxy of the opposition?

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said yesterday that there is nothing wrong with passing a vote of no confidence in Parliament against Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. It is legal and constitutional, said Dr Mahathir.

On that score Dr Mahathir is right even though something like that has never happened before. Normally Prime Ministers are pressured into resigning even though they not always succumb to pressure and still stubbornly hold on like Dr Mahathir himself did and now Najib.

What Dr Mahathir did not explain, though, is that a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister tantamount to a vote of no confidence against the government. It is not just the Prime Minister that falls. The entire government falls.

Another factor that has to be considered is that if Najib is voted out then he can go before His Majesty the Agong to request that Parliament be dissolved to make way for new federal elections. And that may mean the end of Umno and Barisan Nasional rule.

Najib was initially supposed to have been asked to resign on 29th July 2015 during the Cabinet meeting. The leverage to get him to resign can be explained in the graphic below.

alleged-money-trail

Basically, Najib was alleged to have stolen about RM2.6 billion, which came from overseas and was transferred into his personal bank account, with another RM42 million from the pensions fund, KWAP. The graphic that was prepared by The Malaysian Insider and is supposed to have come from the MACC ‘explains’ the money trail.

However, just before the 29th July Cabinet meeting, Najib made his move and clamped down on those that had hoped to put the noose around his neck. Of course, many cry foul but maybe they forgot that in politics there are no rules. I mean, even charges of homosexuality and sodomy have been used to get rid of political enemies — like what Adolf Hitler did to his enemy.

Forcing Najib to resign through pressure from the Cabinet appears to no longer be an option. The threat of arrest and indictment on charges of corruption, too, appears to no longer be on the table. So it has to be through a vote of no confidence in Parliament.

The opposition does not have the numbers. Even if all 100% of the opposition Members of Parliament support the vote of no confidence you still need another 25 from the government benches. And even then it will be gnam-ngam. To be safe you should get 30 from the government to give you some margin.

But that would only be if 100% of the opposition Members of Parliament support you. Whether they will or will not support you 100% would depend on who is going to take over as the new Prime Minister in the event Najib is successfully kicked out.

PKR and DAP want Anwar Ibrahim as the new Prime Minister. But that would be impossible because he now sits in jail. Anyway, PAS does not want him as Prime Minister. The next alternative would be Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah or Ku Li, which PAS, DAP and PKR all seem to support.

However, there is one small problem here. While PAS, DAP and PKR support Ku Li as the new Prime Minister, it is not clear yet whether Dr Mahathir will. Dr Mahathir has his own idea on who should take over from Najib. And there is definitely no love between Dr Mahathir and Ku Li who hate each other’s guts.

The second problem is; if Ku Li takes over then that would mean the door would finally be closed on Anwar for good. It would not be Ku Li as Prime Minister for a brief period while waiting for Anwar to take over later. After Ku Li it is not going to be Anwar.

Mustafa Ali announced yesterday that just before the 2013 general election it was agreed that if Pakatan Rakyat takes over they would support Ku Li as the new Prime Minister. PKR and DAP, however, did not agree to that. They wanted Anwar.

Mustafa Ali, in fact, blames Pakatan Rakyat’s defeat in 2013 on this. Pakatan Rakyat lost because they wanted Anwar as Prime Minister whereas if they had announced Ku Li instead then Pakatan Rakyat would have won.

In short, while everyone may be united on one issue, which is Najib should be ousted, they are very divided on the even more important issue, which is who should take over. So we are going to see the Kajang Move all over again.

And this is the main obstacle to a successful vote of confidence in Parliament. Who will take over if Najib is kicked out? There is no universal choice regarding the successor.

No doubt PAS, PKR and DAP might be able to come to an agreement that Ku Li should take over. But the only reason they would agree on Ku Li is because there are no other candidates they can agree on. So it becomes a matter of no choice.

But PAS, PKR and DAP would not be able to agree on Ku Li if it is just to replace one Umno Prime Minister with another Umno Prime Minister. It has to be replacing an Umno Prime Minister with an opposition proxy. And that means Ku Li would be an opposition man rather than an Umno man.

With Umno out, in essence they would not be ousting just the Prime Minister but the ruling party as well. And this will be a problem in attracting the 25 or 30 government Members of Parliament. The question they are asking is: is Dr Mahathir trying to kill off Najib or is he actually trying to kill off Umno like he once did almost 30 years ago?

So what needs to be addressed before they make their move on Najib would be who takes over after that and will this man still be an Umno man or an opposition man or the proxy of the opposition?

Meanwhile, while they sort out the very delicate terms of the new marriage that they are proposing, Najib can always come back and kill the conspiracy by explaining the allegation in that graphic above.

The graphic is very specific. And if Najib can show that it is not true and what has been alleged is false, that would get him off the hook and his enemies would have to go back to the drawing board to come out with Plan E.

But then in any good game of poker you do not throw all your cards onto the table. So let us see what card Najib has hidden up his sleeve and whether he actually has a winning hand after all.

 



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