No violent crackdown as government perceives Bersih 4 harmless, analysts say

(Malay Mail Online) – Unlike previous Bersih rallies that saw police crackdowns, Bersih 4 was allowed to proceed smoothly as the demonstration was not perceived to appeal to the Malays, Barisan Nasional’s (BN) key vote bank, analysts said.

Despite protesters’ demands at the huge Bersih 4 rally yesterday – which saw tens of thousands thronging the city centre here – for Datuk Seri Najib Razak to step down amid a bad economy, political analysts felt that the mass gatherings in Kuala Lumpur, Kuching and Kota Kinabalu would not likely force the prime minister out of office in the immediate future.

“Putrajaya would only react more actively if it perceives that its base of support has eroded and moving to the opposition,” Ibrahim Suffian, director of independent pollster Merdeka Center, told Malay Mail Online.

“[Yesterday’s] events and turnout complexion shows that despite the issues, its base of support remains intact,” he added.

Unlike previous rallies that saw massive participation from the Malays, especially rural communities, media outlets and observers noted that Bersih 4 appeared to be dominated by the middle-class and non-Malays, especially ethnic Chinese.

Bersih 4 was also the only rally by polls reform group Bersih 2.0 that PAS sat out, as the Islamist opposition party had previously brought in Malay supporters from rural areas all over the country at past demonstrations for free and fair elections.

The racial breakdown of the Bersih 4 protest reflected the results of a poll ran by Merdeka Center before the rally that showed Malaysians split on Bersih 4, with its supporters mostly comprising the non-Malays who live in cities and who use the Internet.

At 81 per cent, an overwhelming section of the ethnic Chinese polled supported Bersih 4, compared to 70 per cent of Malays who opposed the rally.

“On the surface of it, the rally shows that civil society in Malaysia can really mobilise the public in large numbers. It reflects a growing maturity of the public and the willingness to take part in more direct action.

“Politically however, the rally reflects the gridlock of Malaysian politics. The urban public is energised and willing to come out. However, the rural electorate remains on the sidelines,” said Ibrahim.

Political analyst Dr Shamsul Adabi Mamat said Malaysia has undergone a slow democratisation process, resulting in a more politically-mature society.

“If there is no elements of violence in the assembly, surely the government will also consider a mature response. The administrators understand the public, and the public also understands democracy,” said the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor.

Bersih 2.0 has been careful not to let its participants breach the cordoned off Dataran Merdeka, pointing out that it is a “moral high ground” that must be kept to maintain its commitment for a peaceful gathering.

With Kuala Lumpur police chief Datuk Tajuddin Md Isa revealing that no arrests have been made so far, Bersih 2.0 subsequently thanked the police force for not raining water cannon and tear gas on protesters, as what had happened in the electoral watchdog’s three previous protests.

Ibrahim felt it was proof that Putrajaya is getting more savvy in handling protests, realising that crackdowns and harsh treatment are counterproductive, as it worsens the government’s impression in the media and provides fodder for the opposition.

However, Shamsul Adabi suggested that Bersih 4’s lack of aggression this time around might have given it a perception of little impact among the ruling coalition.

“If there is no violent gathering, it will not affect a toppling of the country’s leadership,” he said, insisting that Najib can only be replaced through democratic means — either through general elections, a vote of no confidence, or party polls.

“How far [the people’s voice] can influence [the three channels] will take some time, because it is a process of power transfer. Meanwhile, rallies are a more subjective form of movement,” the analyst added.

The overnight Bersih 4 rally will continue until the end of the day, with the police estimating the numbers of protesters in Kuala Lumpur yesterday at 25,000, and 4,500 more in Kuching and Kota Kinabalu in Sarawak and Sabah respectively.