Large Demonstrations Highlight Ongoing Political Volatility in Malaysia

(CFO Innovation Asia) – Large demonstrations in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend highlight ongoing political volatility in Malaysia, but weak governance is already factored into the sovereign rating, says Fitch Ratings.

Economic factors – including progress in fiscal consolidation, the resilience of growth, and renewed pressures on the external finances – remain more important for now in the agency’s assessment of the credit trajectory.

The recent political uncertainty in Malaysia falls in line with the country’s relatively weak governance ranking. World Bank governance indicators place it in the 62nd percentile, well below the median for ‘A’ rated countries which is around the 75th percentile. Malaysia scores particularly poorly on the “voice and accountability” and “political stability” indicators within the governance rankings.

Fitch has long factored in some political volatility – in line with the recent demonstrations – into the sovereign’s rating. Notably, though, Malaysia’s robust long-term average real GDP growth and deep domestic capital markets must be set against weak governance standards in the assessment of credit fundamentals.

As such, weakening external accounts are a more pressing credit risk for Malaysia. Pressures on the balance of payments have intensified with foreign reserves falling a further 10% to USD95bn by mid-August compared with end-June. The ringgit has also been among the weakest emerging-market currencies year-to-date, depreciating by about 11% versus the US dollar.

The immediate catalysts include China’s surprise depreciation of the yuan on 11 August, as well as continued weakness in oil prices which have fallen by more than one-third since end-June.

But there are broader structural reasons for the external account pressures as well. Higher capital investment in the economy under the government’s Economic Transformation Programme since 2010 have contributed to a declining current account surplus.

Fitch’s credit view continues to balance pressures on external liquidity against the prospects for further structural reforms to narrow the gap in fundamentals versus rating peers. In this context, government policy is key. The progress government has made on reforms to improve the fiscal accounts over the past 18 months is significant.

The most notable reforms include the introduction of a 6% goods and services tax in April 2015, and reforms to the fuel-subsidy programme. Nonetheless, further fiscal measures are likely be needed to achieve the government’s longer-term plan of a balanced budget by 2020.

It would be credit negative for Malaysia should the political volatility result in the government back-tracking on these reforms. In the longer term, Fitch will continue to assess the credit impact – both positive and negative – of these economic policies.