U.S. shale oil industry will bankrupt Saudi Arabia and claim victory against OPEC
(OilJobsND) – It won’t be long now, until the U.S. Shale Oil Industry will bankrupt Saudi Arabia, and claim victory against OPEC. The war isn’t over yet, but America has already won, it’s just a waiting game now.
On Friday, December 18th 2015, President Barack Obama officially signed off on ending the 40 year ban on the export of crude oil. President Obama basically signed the death certificate of OPEC. By passing this new law, the US Shale Oil Industry will crush OPEC in the long-term.
For years now Saudi Arabia has been a major powerhouse in the oil and gas industry. When you think Saudi Arabia, you think of oil. Most people assume OPEC is the one calling the shots and setting the oil prices, it’s not, it’s Saudi Arabia and it’s been them this whole time. Why do you think the Bush Administration was in bed with them?
For the last few decades Saudi Arabia has printed money faster than they can pump oil, and they pump a tremendous amount of oil. When the markets swung up and down, it was due to the Saudi’s actions. Saudi Arabia has been the muscle in the oil industry for the longest time, until US operators cracked the shale oil code.
At the current time, oil accounts for 80% of the Saudi government’s budget revenues, 90% of its export earnings, and 45% of its overall GDP. So far, it’s estimated the oil crash has cost OPEC countries $500 billion a year. Saudi’s crude oil exports rose to 7.364 million barrels per day, from 7.111 million in September.
It won’t be long before Saudi Arabia shoots themselves in the foot and goes broke due to their refusal to decrease oil production. They may have started the oil war, but the US Shale Oil Industry is going to finish it. Saudi has gone from a budget surplus of 12% of GDP in 2012 to a projected deficit of 21.6% or roughly US$150 Billion in 2015. They can only keep their heads above water for so long at this pace. Saudi needs crude at US $106 a barrel to balance its budget, way higher than a once needed $69 a barrel back in 2010.
What the US operators need to do to bury OPEC 6 feet under the ground is ramp up production to further flood the market and drive the price of oil down. This could be done very quickly. And it just may happen now that we’ve all of a sudden discovered that there is a huge market for the oil we have here. Before the ban was lifted, everybody said it would do us no good because there was simply no market for the light sweet crude. Well, game changing news was announced just the other day about a huge deal being reached to start exporting oil right away. Texas is going to begin exporting mass amounts of oil within the next couple weeks. This is the news we’ve all been wondering about. Will they buy if we open up exports? Yes is the answer, and it took a matter of days for the first deal to be done. In our next post we will discuss the details of the coming exports.
If the call came in to open up the spigot now, Bakken oil production could be boosted up to 2 million barrels a day within a matter of hours, all they have to do is send out the lease operators (pumpers) and opening up the wells bringing production up over an extra million barrels a day. The production numbers we are looking at in North Dakota are holding steady with a low amount of rigs. If one were to bring 150 more rigs out, it could get mighty interesting. When we talk about upping the rig counts in North Dakota, one should not be surprised to see some new, major oilfield companies coming to the state and staking their claim in the Bakken.
Since the price of oil started sliding down, most of the new wells are either being capped, or choked way back. Why would an oil company pump the wells out for a huge loss to store the oil somewhere else? Where’s the cheapest place to store oil you might wonder? Right where it is in the ground. The oil isn’t going anywhere, it can sit and wait longer than the Saudi’s can. The game is Chess, and OPEC has just been put in check mate.
When you read the mainstream media, they talk about what number is needed for break-even numbers when drilling for oil. The main stream media has been wrong all along. The numbers they report are numbers that consist of unproven oil grounds. The thing is, in North Dakota and Texas, the operators have already pinpointed the sweet spots of the oil plays. They know where to drill to squeeze out the greatest amount of oil at the best price. The true break even numbers haven’t even been reported yet. Let’s just say the operators are still making money even with oil in the $30 range, and there’s still wiggle room. I’ve said it all along, and I’ll say it again, there’s more oil in North Dakota than we know what to do with. All said and done the Bakken will go over 100,000 wells, actually well over that number. Right now, we’ve barely got the patch percolating at the upper 13k current well count. As the oilfield companies perfect their drilling strategies, the number of recoverable barrels of oil just keeps going up.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC will eventually fall at the hand of their own weapon, oil. The US has more oil than it knows what to do with at this time. This is just one area we are talking about. The Bakken is just one oil play in the lower 48. Let’s bring Texas into the picture where it’s home to many oil plays that are prime grounds. Speaking of Texas, the Barnett just broke massive news about newly estimated reserves of twice the original numbers. According to a recent U.S. Geological Survey Assessment (USGS), the Barnett shale has estimated mean volumes of 53 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of shale natural gas, 172 million barrels of shale oil and 176 million barrels of natural gas liquids. And that folks, is just one of the several oil plays in Texas. Let’s not forget the Eagle Ford in south Texas or the Permian Basin and what’s happening there.
We will not be controlled by OPEC anymore. We (US) will be the dominant force in the oil and gas industry, it’s only a matter of time. Our economy is much more diverse as opposed to Saudi Arabia. Their economy relies on oil. We do not. Who do you think will last longer? Sit tight, and watch the events unfold. America is the new powerhouse in the oil and gas industry, thanks to the shale oil revolution.
The sooner the price wars are over the better. When Saudi and OPEC wave their white flags, the markets will steady, and the prices will rise. We will go back to an all out wild west oil boom across America. It’s not a matter of if at this point, it’s a matter of when.
Soon after the deal was reached to lift the ban, company stock in a few major operators have steadily been climbing. As of late, the dollar is falling. When the dollar falls, oil price goes up. Some said the oil patch would stay stagnant throughout 2016, but with this late news about oil exports beginning right away it looks to be the opposite. We will pray for all involved in the oil and gas industry that the future plays out in their favor. The timing of all this in the last few days is amazing. As we have seen in the past, things can happen very fast in the oil and gas industry. Let’s get the people back to work as soon as we can.
