Will Zahid make it to Prime Minister?

By MT Webmaster Last updated Jan 10, 2016

It is too early for me to take any bets. But one thing I do know is that Zahid has to go for the post of Deputy President, and he must win it if he does not want to be Deputy Prime Minister for just three years and never make it to the post of Prime Minister beyond 2020.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Tun Abdul Razak Hussein was Malaysia’s first Deputy Prime Minister. He was Deputy Prime Minister for 13 years and then became Prime Minister in 1970. However, he died when just five-and-a-half years in office.

Tun Dr Ismail Abdul Rahman was Malaysia’s second Deputy Prime Minister. Sadly, though, he died just three years later, two-and-a-half years before Tun Razak died. So he never made Prime Minister.

Tun Dato’ Hussein Dato’ Onn was Malaysia’s third Deputy Prime Minister. He took over when Tun Dr Ismail died and then two-and-a-half years later became Prime Minister when Tun Razak died. You can say he ‘went up’ against the backdrop of two unfortunate deaths.

Tun Hussein became Prime Minister in January 1976 but did not appoint his Deputy until March. That was because he wanted Tun Muhammad Ghazali Shafie as his deputy but the three Umno Vice Presidents protested. Tun Hussein was asked to choose Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Tun Abdul Ghafar Baba, or Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as his deputy.

Tengku Razaleigh had the highest votes but he wanted to skip his turn so that he could focus on his unfinished business. Because of his educational background Tun Ghafar was considered not too suitable. So Dr Mahathir was appointed Malaysia’s fourth Deputy Prime Minister. Dr Mahathir was Deputy Prime Minister for five-and-a-half years.

When Tun Hussein resigned as Prime Minister in 1981, Dr Mahathir took over. Dr Mahathir had four Deputy Prime Ministers.

Dr Mahathir first appointed Tun Musa Hitam as Malaysia’s fifth Deputy Prime Minister who resigned five years later.

Then Tun Ghafar took over as Malaysia’s sixth Deputy Prime Minister and was ousted six years later.

Anwar Ibrahim then took over as Malaysia’s seventh Deputy Prime Minister and was ousted five years later.

Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi took over after that and was Malaysia’s eighth Deputy Prime Minister for five years.

When Tun Abdullah took over as Prime Minister he appointed Najib Tun Razak as Malaysia’s ninth Deputy Prime Minister who held that post for five years before he became Prime Minister.

When Najib became Prime Minister he appointed Muhyiddin Yassin as Malaysia’s tenth Deputy Prime Minister who stayed for just five-and-a-half years.

And now we have Ahmad Zahid Hamidi who is five months into office as Malaysia’s eleventh Deputy Prime Minister.

So there you have it — eleven Deputy Prime Ministers under six Prime Ministers. So it looks like the statistics for Deputy Prime Ministers becoming Prime Minister is not very impressive. And it looks like most survive as Deputy Prime Minister for only five years or so but if they can cross that five-year mark then they have a chance to become Prime Minister. If not they will be just one more of the many Deputy Prime Ministers who never made Prime Minister.

The question we need to ask, therefore, is will Zahid make it to Prime Minister? I suppose we would then need to ask whether Zahid can make it past 2020 or whether his career as Deputy Prime Minister would end before then.

Zahid may be the Deputy Prime Minister but his position is not that secure. And that is because he is not yet the Deputy President of Umno. Zahid must secure the post of Deputy President in the 2018 party election. But then if someone challenges him and wins, Najib would be under pressure to appoint the new Umno Deputy President as the Deputy Prime Minister to replace Zahid.

It will be the same as in the case of Tun Hussein where the party did not give him much choice as to who to appoint as his deputy. And Najib may not be at liberty to go against what the party wants. And the fact that the party voted for someone else and not for Zahid as its Deputy President would mean ‘the party has spoken’.

So Zahid has about two-and-a-half years to work on securing his position of Deputy Prime Minister by making sure that be becomes the party’s Deputy President. If not he would be Deputy Prime Minister for just three years and would not see 2020 as Najib’s number two. And if Zahid fails to become the Deputy President then the matter would be out of Najb’s hands and would be in the hands of the party.

Zahid would have to relinquish his post of Vice President in his bid for the post of Deputy President. And if he fails to become the Deputy President he would end up with nothing. And the new Deputy President plus the new three Vice Presidents would put a gun to Najib’s head and force him to replace the Deputy Prime Minister.

The next two years is going to be very interesting to watch. We are not sure yet whether anyone is going to take on Najib for the post of party President. That, of course, may happen like in 1987. But the post of Deputy President would definitely be under contest.

Will Muhyiddin defend his post? Would he be sacked from the party before that? Would Zahid be the Acting Deputy President by then? Will Muhyiddin not defend his post and, therefore, the post of Deputy President would be a vacant post for anyone to go for? Will the vacant post of Deputy President be open season and up for grabs with two, three, four, or more, contenders?

Raja Petra Kamarudin RPK