Analysts: Dr M’s Umno exit temporary relief for Najib, but could cost party votes in GE14

(Malay Mail Online) – Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s exit from Umno may bring temporary relief for party president Datuk Seri Najib Razak, but it could also spell trouble for the party in the 14th general election due in 2018, political observers have said.

Analyst Ibrahim Suffian said that Dr Mahathir could potentially cause more damage to Umno as he is now free to mobilise and unite groups who are opposed to Prime Minister Najib’s rule to campaign against Barisan Nasional in GE14.

“In the short term, impact on Umno and PM Najib is limited and solves the problem they are facing in trying to discipline him without further damaging the image of the party,” the executive director of independent pollster Merdeka Center told Malay Mail Online when contacted yesterday.

“In the medium term, he could galvanize public opinion further against PM Najib and the government. In which case it increases the difficulty of the administration to win back support lost due to the slowing down economy and the various controversies that it is embroiled in,” he added.

Ibrahim said that Dr Mahathir could cause problems for Najib later on if he is able to mobilize the dissenting elements in Malaysian politics, as signaled by the former Umno president’s move in taking his case to the voters instead of Umno members.

“If he is successful he could split the Malay Muslim vote which forms the backbone of support for the ruling party in Malaysia; which if carried on till the election could help the opposition or be used as an excuse for others in Umno to view Najib as a liability.

“He does have significant goodwill with Malay voters, it’s going to be challenging for Umno if he remains against the party come GE14,” he later added when commenting on the long-term effects of Dr Mahathir leaving Umno.

Dr Lim Teck Ghee, director of Centre for Policy Initiatives, said it may appear now as if Najib has a firmer grip in the party.

“Superficially it looks like Najib has strengthened his position within the party leadership. But it may prove to be a pyrrhic victory for him if a majority of the Supreme Council members presently with him decide to desert the sinking ship! He must be fully aware of the axiom ― in politics there are no permanent friends or enemies,” he told Malay Mail Online when contacted yesterday.

Lim argued that Dr Mahathir’s decision to quit Umno could well be the “game-changer” in Malaysia for those who are tired of the party’s alleged championing of racial and religious politics.

“Dr Mahathir’s move following the suspension of Muhyiddin as deputy president will throw the party into greater disarray as well as considerably reduce its appeal to members of the Malay and rural communities,” he said, referring to Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

While Lim said that Umno will not split into two as in the past, he predicted that many party members will withhold support from the present leadership and may even oppose it discreetly ― even if they do not follow suit in quitting the party.

“Dr. Mahathir could find a new role for himself if the plans for an enlargement of the present opposition to include a new group of dissidents ― many will be from Umno ― become reality.

“Unless his health lets him down, I see him as taking an even more active role in his ― and the opposition’s ― attempt to oust PM Najib from power,” Lim also said as he disagreed that Dr Mahathir’s influence would wane and attacks would weaken once he ceases to be an Umno member.

Prof James Chin, director of University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute, said that Najib has cemented his hold on Umno “for now” with critics Dr Mahathir and Muhyiddin either leaving the party or being in a weaker party position, but noted that “things can change quickly”.

Noting that Dr Mahathir had previously quit the party during Tun Abdullah Badawi’s rule as prime minister, Chin said Umno will not split up into different camps, adding that people do not leave Umno as they consider the party to be their “rice bowl”,

“Only members like his son will follow him and resign. Of course he hopes many Umno leaders will follow and resign. If a large group resigns then Najib is in trouble. But I do not see that happening,” he told Malay Mail Online in an email interview yesterday.

“Resigning means he has no more space in Umno to move. Also means Najib has effectively forced his hand. Dr Mahathir is now tasting his own medicine. He force people like Razaleigh to resign in 1987. They could not topple Dr Mahathir but they tried,” he said, having noted that Dr Mahathir will not fade away as long as the media gives him space.

Ibrahim predicts that the federal opposition will offer to work with Dr Mahathir in hopes of using his political capital with the Malay electorate and make up for their own shortcomings.

Chin predicted that the federal opposition will offer support to Dr Mahathir, but may be hampered by PAS’s alleged stance favouring Najib.

“Problem is PAS is supporting Najib. So even with DAP and PKR, without PAS means a lot of noise in urban areas only,” he said.

Yesterday, Dr Mahathir said he wants to leave Umno as its role is now allegedly only to protect Najib, confirming however that he will not be creating a new party.

He called for a “core group of like-minded individuals” to come forward and join him in calling for Najib’s resignation.