What actually is Mahathir planning now that he has crossed the Rubicon?

Umar Mukhtar

Dr. Mahathir Mohamad may have a plan or may not, and may improvise along the way, but one thing is certain – there is no turning back. Bridges have been burnt; it’s kill or be killed.

The outcome of this grudge-match will be known to us in the aftermath of PRU14 and we will see then whether Mahathir had any influence on the outcome, by intent or by default.

Generally, it will be one of these three outcomes. First, Barisan Nasional retains the federal government with Prime Minister Najib Razak at the helm. Or, second, BN retains federal power with someone else at the helm. Or, third, BN losses federal power no matter who is at the helm.

It can be inferred from his own admissions that it is the second possible outcome that is Mahathir’s objective. If realised, then Najib better have his bags packed.

The third outcome will confirm Mahathir’s original fears especially if Najib remained at the helm or left too late for Mahathir to do a turnaround. It will give him a satisfaction of sorts but he will be like ‘Pak Kadok, menang bersorak kampong tergadai’. Whoever inherits UMNO then will preside over either its burial or its rebirth as a political movement of the 21st century.

The first outcome simply means Mahathir is dead and buried or, if not dead, he ought to be dead and buried. It means he got it all wrong and messed with our lives. As thick-skinned as he is, he won’t be able to live with himself.

To have an idea of where Mahathir is going with the ball now that the opposition has given it to him, let us look at his options.

Parliamentary Revolt

Now that he has the opposition Members of Parliament’s votes in his pocket, he will try again for a parliamentary vote of no confidence against Najib. He will focus to amass BN dissident MPs’ votes. One thing for sure, this is going to be an expensive long drawn out affair, with some goodies for the opposition, too, for not raising a fuss as to the choice of an UMNO prime minister. Mahathir has the money, though not the time.

The best way to deal with the opposition is to offer it a unity government of sorts, with concrete promises of reforms in government, and an acknowledgement of mistakes made. A mechanism that indicates group or collective responsibility would be great to keep the opposition honest at the coming polls.

Don’t forget that Najib, too, can do similar stuff to neutralise Mahathir. He, too, has the money, plus the magic of incumbency. Anything to keep himself out of jail.

If either of those scenarios offers a win-win proposition for the Rakyat, why not? That may be wishful thinking on our part but stranger things have happened in politics, and the stakes and temperatures are high enough and fitting for the occasion. It is up to the opposition to evaluate the deals and whom they trust more — Mahathir or Najib?

Criminal Prosecution

If the above compromises do not work for whatever reason, the full force of the law has to come into play in one form of another.

According to Najib’s detractors, the only thing that’s stopping Najib from being prosecuted now and found guilty and sent to jail, is that the Attorney-General, who was appointed by Najib to the office after a hasty retirement of the incumbent and is tasked by our Constitution to be the exclusive chief public prosecutor, simply had refused to charge him on the grounds of lack of evidence.

Though there is no provision in the law for the appointment of a special prosecutor by the head of state, Yang DiPertuan Agong, and the Conference of Rulers, Their Royal Highnesses have lots of stuff at their disposal to influence events if the rakyat showed signs of extreme restlessness at the state of national affairs, and their supportiveness of the Rulers interceding to save the nation.

What are these stuff? Suffice to say that they are not specifically legally-mandated, nor partial in nature but will act as equalisers in a lopsided situation. By the time the Rulers threaten to intercede, normally reason will prevail. Unless of course, the threat of abolishing the constitutional monarchy becomes an option, and that will broaden the conflict to beyond Mahathir and Najib.

It is this kind of social strive that Mahathir would be working for as a means to instigate action by whoever.

Mahathir As Facilitator

Mahathir has not enough direct followers or organisational influence to take up any position to lead a political movement. He knows that. He can only feign an active facilitator and adopt a statesman-like approach in trying to correct a national imbalance.

The truth is somewhere in between. He will still be a player and would want to decide on the nation’s destiny especially on those matters that are close to his heart, like his legacy and his family. Impartial he is not.

Action Plan

Based on the above options, Mahathir’s actions from now on can be easily predicted.

1. He would galvanise public opinion and mobilise it into civil actions that will stifle Najib’s administration, through making deals with opinion leaders and social activists. This is already a work in progress.

2. He would package these actions as concerted signals that will prompt those with the means to act. He has to insulate these activities from being vulnerable from sabotage by agent provocateurs and moles, the way he had done against others when he was in power.

3. He would conduct clandestine talks with sympathetic senior officers of the government apparatchik to get their cooperation to ensure government sluggishness, undependability and thus create the perception of the inevitability of Malaysia becoming a ‘failed state’ under Najib. These would be packaged as the inability of Najib to govern due to his stupidity, and the lack of support for and commitment of government servants to Najib’s programmes.

4. He will befriend both local and foreign media into highlighting these deficiencies as defined by values which he himself did not agree to previously. The public relations effort to discredit Najib will be run by mercenerial international professionals. The key characteristic is that there will be no sacred cows and that collateral damage to the nation’s long-term image is allowed.

5. He will move in diplomatic circles to urge that Malaysia be isolated as a pariah state with tips from the benefit of the experience of his good friend, President Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

6. Finally, there will be milestone events that will progressively touch on the economy, religion and race relations as these are close to Malaysian hearts. Even though the events are choreographed, the trick is to keep your fingers clean and blame it on boogiemen, which Najib is unable to control because he is weak supposedly

These are generic happenings that the anarchist can pick up from Anarchy 101. Tactics and techniques are teachable but what will swing the day is the personal input that Mahathir will keep close to his chest. We will interpret them as they happen. Tactics on how to deal with strange bedfellows without them coming back to haunt you one day will be the subject of another piece.

The question arises as to why Mahathir did not do these before. The difficulty was that he was still in UMNO, which inhibited him as ‘musuh dalam selimut’? Upon cutting his umbilical cords to UMNO, he immediately reattached it to the opposition to free himself to operate and with a ready-made following.

If the above efforts do not bear results at the level needed as catalystic and agitative action, enough damage would have been done to weaken BN to lose power at the polls. When that happens Mahathir will claim with a straight face that he has saved Malaysia from Najib, and he will be quite silent on the fact that he has cut his nose to spite his face. ‘Tak dapat nyamuk kelambu dibakar’. If you can’t get the mosquitoes, just burn the mosquito nets.

Najib’s Defence

Najib’s defence as can be seen presently is to attack. He has the money to buy the best strategists that the world can offer and he is probably already using them. But he is encumbered by his need for choruses of obliging yes-men and sycophants who by necessity are idiots and morons who run interference incessantly.

The fact that Najib did not put out the embers earlier was upon advice of these types who claim that they are conversant with the Malay psyche, and that this will blow away.

We will run through Najib’s challenges, his options and tactics in future pieces. Plus the antics of the president’s men in handling the emperor’s new clothes. But whatever it may be, Najib’s offensive can only be decided by the army of one.