The Mahathir Legacy (part 4)

By MT Webmaster Last updated Mar 29, 2016

So the Save Malaysia campaign and the Citizens’ Declaration are now non-starters. And the planned event on 27th March 2016, which Zaid Ibrahim is organising, is going to be a double-whammy for Mahathir. Mahathir has to learn the meaning of the saying when you are already in a hole, stop digging. Mahathir, on the other hand, is digging the hole even deeper and he is not going to be able to get out of it.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

‘I don’t think the Citizens’ Declaration will bring Najib down’

(Free Malaysia Today) – The Citizens’ Declaration seeking Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s removal is bound to fail, Umno veteran Sanusi Junid has conceded, adding that Malaysians can only hope for God to open the premier’s heart so that he resigns on his own volition.

Because of this, the former Kedah Menteri Besar believes that it was his religious duty to push for Najib’s removal. He claimed that Najib has set the bar for being Prime Minister so low that there are “hundreds” who qualified to take his place.

When asked who among suspended Umno Deputy President Muhyiddin Yassin, acting Deputy President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Umno Vice-President Hishammuddin Hussein was qualified to take Najib’s place, Sanusi again said that only God could decide.

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Sanusi Junid is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s closest ally who stood by the then Prime Minister even back in 1987 when almost everyone in Umno had turned against him. Sanusi, in fact, announced during the Umno Assembly that he was the only one who still visited Dr Mahathir at home — and he turned to look at the Prime Minister who nodded in agreement as he said that.

Sanusi was also the only one (other than Tun Dr Siti Hasmah Ali) who resigned from Umno in 2008 when Mahathir resigned in protest due to his differences with the then Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Mahathir resigned from Umno to force Abdullah to step down and announced that he would rejoin Umno only once Abdullah goes.

Hence when Sanusi talks you can assume that he is merely repeating the views of Mahathir. And if Sanusi says that the Citizens’ Declaration is not going to result in Najib’s ouster then you can place your money on the fact that this is Mahathir talking.

So why then in the first place did they sign that Citizens’ Declaration during the launch of the Save Malaysia campaign on 4th March 2016? Well, that is precisely what Mahathir is asking himself and he realises now that that was a gross miscalculation and error of strategy, which he now wishes he had not done.

Anyway, we will talk more about that later. First we want to talk about why Mahathir resigned from Umno four days before that on 29th February 2016.

When Najib removed Muhyiddin Yassin as Deputy Prime Minister and replaced him with Ahmad Zahid Hamidi exactly seven month before that, Mahathir knew it was game over. He initially wanted to oust Najib as Prime Minister and replace him with Muhyiddin a.k.a. Malaysia’s Goh Chok Tong. Now that was no longer going to happen.

Mahathir was taking a leaf out of Lee Kuan Yew’s playbook and Malaysia’s ‘General Lee Hsien Loong,’ would, of course, be Mukhriz Mahathir. But then General Lee is ages ahead of Mukhriz so how in heaven’s name Mahathir ever imagined that his son could match the current Singapore Prime Minister is mind-boggling.

Anyway, with Muhyiddin gone and with Zahid as the new Deputy Prime Minister, this more or less shattered the plan. So Mahathir had to go back to the drawing board and come out with a new plan. Mahathir’s kuda was now dead so ousting Najib would only give way to Zahid to take over. And there was no guarantee that Zahid would make Mukhriz his Deputy Prime Minister.

Nevertheless, Mahathir still proceeded with the planned vote of no confidence in Parliament in October 2015 while openly admitting that it would be impossible to succeed. He also proceeded with the planned vote of no confidence in the Umno Assembly in December 2015 while also openly admitting that it would be impossible to succeed.

So, if Mahathir knew that the October and December attempts were all doomed to fail from the start, and if he openly admitted so, then why bother with it? Why do something you know is going to fail and then announce that it is going to fail before you even attempt it?

If you had read the previous article yesterday (Mahathir: stripped naked and laid bare) then you will know that the long and short of it all is that Mahathir is trying to build a political dynasty and whatever he is doing is all aimed at making his son, Mukhriz, a Prime Minister by 2020.

And for that to happen Mukhriz has to first become the Deputy Prime Minister. And that was supposed to have happened in 2015 so that it would give Mukhriz five years to prepare himself to become the Prime Minister.

So what were July 2015, October 2015 and December 2015 all about then? If Mahathir knew that all these attempts to oust Najib were going to fail (and Malaysia Today already said one year ago they were going to fail), and if Mahathir openly admitted they were going to fail (and he said so even before he started), so what was this song and dance all about?

Well, it was just like what he did in 2006-2008. He knew he would not be able to oust Abdullah (and he openly said so). But he still pushed. And then he resigned from Umno and made sure that Umno and Barisan Nasional performed badly in the 2008 general election (which they did).

And then, when Umno and Barisan Nasional panicked and visualised getting wiped out in the 2013 general election if Abdullah stayed on, the party ‘advised’ Abdullah to resign and the Special Branch told Abdullah that if he did not resign then not only would his party get wiped out but he would also end up in jail as well for various criminal offenses.

Umno panicked. Barisan Nasional panicked. And this made Abdullah panic as well. So he resigned to save Umno and Barisan Nasional and also to save himself from going to jail (where maybe his son and son-in-law may end up as well if Abdullah remained stubborn).

So that was how it succeeded. In 2006-2008 Mahathir played up the fear factor and it worked. He managed to get rid of the Prime Minister and then returned to Umno with his new ‘proxy’ as prime Minister — or at least that was what he thought until he found out that Najib was avoiding him like the plague and refused to layan him for six months.

And that is the same game that Mahathir is playing now, ten years later, the fear factor.

When Mukhriz was removed as the Kedah Menteri Besar in late January 2016, the game became very dicey and the ante was upped. That was something that Mahathir had not anticipated and that made it even more difficult for Mukhriz to take over as the Deputy Prime Minister.

So the only thing left for Mahathir was to, yet again, raise that fear factor like he did ten years ago. As Sanusi said above, “Malaysians can only hope for God to open the premier’s heart so that he resigns on his own volition.”

So that is the new game plan — hoping for Najib’s heart to ‘open’ and that he would ‘resign on his own volition’ (since ousting him, which was planned for July 2015, was now out of the question). When asked who then would take over, Sanusi said ‘only God could decide’.

Does this not sound like a neither-here-nor-there game plan? They are leaving it to God to move Najib’s heart and are also leaving it to God to decide who is going to take over. In that case why did Mahathir bother to file that suit against Najib today? Why not instead just go to the mosque and pray for God to hurry up and move Najib’s heart to make him resign?

When Mukhriz was pushed out in January this year, the situation became critical and desperate times demand desperate measures. Unlike in 2006-2008 when Umno and the Special Branch were opposed to Abdullah, this time around Najib is on solid footing. So if they want Najib ousted then they must do it from the outside.

And to achieve that Mahathir must first resign from Umno to ‘prove’ that he is opposed to Umno. If not Pakatan Harapan would not work with him. And that was what he did on 29th February 2016. And because of that Pakatan Harapan welcomed him as the new de facto Opposition Leader with open arms (even Anwar Ibrahim did: READ HERE).

However, four days later, on 4th March 2016, Mahathir blundered big time when he joined the Save Malaysia campaign (which the opposition says is Mahathir’s idea) and signed the Citizens’ Declaration.

That 4th March event was supposed to be the final blow that would raise the fear factor to new heights. With Mahathir now heading the new opposition coalition called Save Malaysia and with the signing of the Citizens’ Declaration, Umno and Barisan Nasional were supposed to be on their last days before they die for good.

In short, the next general election in two years’ time in 2018 is more or less a foregone conclusion. Umno and Barisan Nasional are finished and Pakatan Harapan with Mahathir at the lead is going to take over the government.

There is, of course, still a chance to save Umno and Barisan Nasional. But that can only happen if Mahathir abandons the Save Malaysia campaign and the Citizens’ Declaration and rejoins Umno. And at the next Umno Supreme Council meeting Shahidan Kassim is going to inform the Supreme Council that all is lost unless Mahathir can be persuaded to abandon his cause and rejoin Umno.

Shahidan will get the Supreme Council to agree to a negotiation with Mahathir and to agree to Mahathir’s demands so that he will abandon the Save Malaysia campaign and the Citizens’ Declaration and rejoin Umno.

The Supreme Council would then be told that Mahathir is prepared to compromise and meet Umno halfway. Mahathir will not demand Najib’s resignation. He will allow Najib to continue as Prime Minister. He will even withdraw the civil suit that he filed today (which he is not going to win anyway). However, in return, Mukhriz must be appointed the new Deputy Prime Minister.

For the sake of Umno and for the good of the party, Zahid will be asked to make way for Mukhriz. It is a small sacrifice for Zahid to make and does Zahid not place the party above his personal interest?

Furthermore, in the 2018 party election, Mukhriz must be allowed to win the Umno Deputy President’s post uncontested. Mahfuz Omar of PAS has already agreed to resign his Pokok Sena parliament seat so that Mukhriz can contest that seat in a by-election (which must be done before 5th May 2016). It is not known, though, how many millions Mahfuz would receive for that but it should be quite substantial.

All this was actually a very good plan if not for one major screw-up. And that screw-up was the launching of the Save Malaysia campaign and the signing of the Citizens’ Declaration on 4th March 2016.

That move was supposed to be the final nail in the fear factor coffin that would enable Shahidan to raise this matter in the Umno Supreme Council and open the doors for negotiations with Mahathir. Then, to appease Mahathir, Umno will agree to his terms and Mukhriz would be made the new Deputy Prime Minister and would be allowed to win the Umno Deputy Presidency in 2018 uncontested.

However, instead of making Umno fear him even more, it made Umno very angry. This time Mahathir had gone a step too far. The 4th March 2016 drama was a fiasco that backfired badly. Instead of sending Umno into a panic, it just outraged the party and now they want the heads of all the plotters on a spike.

So there will be no deal with Mahathir. He can try to do his worst for all they care. And that was the reason for today’s civil suit against Najib. As Sanusi said, the Citizens’ Declaration is not going to make Najib resign. Only God can make Najib resign, said Sanusi.

And it looks like God is on Najib’s side after all. Instead of opening Najib’s heart to make him resign, God has closed Mahathir’s heart and made him do that silly thing on 4th March 2016. And that silly thing has worked in Najib’s favour.

Mukhriz’s removal as Menteri Besar was actually a very good move. Since then Mahathir has been making mistake after mistake. Probably Mukhriz’s ouster really flustered Mahathir because he did not expect that. And when Mahathir went into overkill, instead of killing Najib he ended up killing himself.

By or before June this will all be over. Muhyiddin and Mukhriz will be out of the party. The Save Malaysia campaign and the Citizens’ Declaration would be dead and buried. Mahathir would be reduced to a non-entity. And I would probably take my wife, Marina, to Paris for our 43rd wedding anniversary since I would no longer have any work to do.

The Mahathir Legacy (part 4)

The Mahathir Legacy (part 3)

The Mahathir Legacy (part 2)

The Mahathir Legacy (part 1)