Mahathir will never let Anwar out

Of course, the opposition knows this but they are hoping they can use Mahathir to bring down Umno as Mahathir is using them to make his son the Prime Minster. Time will tell whether Mahathir is more successful at using the opposition or the opposition is more successful at using Mahathir. In the meantime, both sides are using the rakyat in their game of thrones.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

When Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali flew to London to meet Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad about 13 months ago on 22nd February 2015, it was as Anwar Ibrahim’s emissary.

Anwar’s message to Mahathir was PKR and Pakatan Harapan would join the ANC (Anti-Najib Campaign) in its effort to oust Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. However, part of that deal would be that Anwar would receive a pardon and would be released from jail as soon as Najib is ousted.

Mahathir, however, was not open to that deal. Ousting Najib is okay. Granting Anwar a pardon and getting him released from jail is not okay. Azmin then agreed that the deal would only involve the ouster of Najib and will not include Anwar’s pardon and release from jail.

On 23rd February 2015, Azmin flew back to Malaysia and on 26th February 2015 Azmin went to the Sungai Buloh Prison to deliver the bad news. And the bad news is Mahathir wants Anwar to remain in jail where he would be released in 2020 and can only return to politics in 2025 when he is 78 years old.

And that would mean Anwar can only contest the 2028 general election when he is 81 years old, if he is still alive. In short: Anwar’s political career is totally finished and at best he can just be the de facto this, that or the other and never a really serious player.

That is why his daughter, Nurul Izzah, said that Anwar does not want to be paroled. If he is paroled that would mean he is still considered guilty, said Nurul. What they want is for Anwar to be pardoned.

The reason why Anwar wants a pardon and not a parole is because if he is pardoned then he can immediately contest a by-election (if held before May 2016) or the next general election in 2018. If he is paroled he can only contest the 2023 general election when he is already 76.

That is why Anwar wants a pardon and not to be paroled.

Two other ‘high profile’ politicians have been pardoned before — Selangor Menteri Besar Harun Idris (1970s) and Minister of Youth and Sports Mokhtar Hashim (1980s). However, although they have been pardoned, that does not exonerate them of their crimes. They are still considered guilty.

So Nurul’s argument that a pardon would mean Anwar is not guilty while a parole would mean he is still guilty is not right. Furthermore, Sections 376 and 377 of the Penal Code, which Anwar was charged under, does not allow for parole. He can, however, get pardoned.

But to get pardoned Anwar needs to first apply for it, which he did not do and does not want to do. Then the Home Minister, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, has to recommend that Anwar be pardoned.

The problem with this, however, other than the fact that Anwar refuses to apply for a pardon, is that Mahathir has accused Zahid of being too close to Anwar and that is why even if the ANC can successfully oust Najib, Mahathir does not want Zahid to take over as Prime Minister.

Hence if Zahid supports Anwar’s pardon (in the event that Anwar applies for it in the first place) Mahathir is going to launch an AZC (Anti-Zahid Campaign). So definitely Zahid would not want to upset Mahathir by supporting Anwar’s pardon (in the event Anwar applies for a pardon: which he has not).

So it is Mahathir and not Zahid or Najib who wants to keep Anwar in jail. Najib, in fact, would be quite open to considering a pardon for Anwar if he applies for it. But Anwar would never ask to be pardoned because he does not want to acknowledge that he is guilty (and only guilty people ask to be pardoned). Also he does not want to beg Najib to give him a pardon.

What Anwar wants is to be pardoned without asking for it. The question is: will Zahid agree even if Anwar asks to be pardoned? More importantly, would Zahid agree to grant Anwar a pardon when he did not even ask for it?

In short, Anwar is going to remain in jail until 2020 and cannot return to politics until 2025 and can only contest the 2028 general election. Mahathir will make sure of that and unless Zahid wants the old man to go for him as well, he had better not defy the old man.

And that is why Anwar does not support the Save Malaysia Campaign and the Citizens’ Declaration and Pakatan Harapan working with Mahathir’s ANC to oust Najib. Anwar knows that the whole thing does not benefit him one bit and is only about making Mahathir’s son, Mukhriz, the next Prime Minister.

Anwar is also not too happy with Azmin playing footsie with Mahathir and the Umno dissidents. Anwar told Azmin, “Buat apa main dengan orang gila tu?” To Anwar, Mahathir has gone totally mad and would do anything to get his son installed as Prime Minister, even to the extent of destroying Umno like he did in 1987-1988 and 2006-2008.

Anwar knows that to become Prime Minister you have to do it through Umno. That was why Anwar tried for ten years to get back into Umno after he was sacked in 1998. He even took his case to court.

Hence for Mukhriz to become Prime Minister it also has to be through Umno. And that would mean Mahathir has no plans for the opposition to take over. He is just using the opposition but not to the extent that the opposition must win the next general election.

Of course, the opposition knows this but they are hoping they can use Mahathir to bring down Umno as Mahathir is using them to make his son the Prime Minster. Time will tell whether Mahathir is more successful at using the opposition or the opposition is more successful at using Mahathir. In the meantime, both sides are using the rakyat in their game of thrones.