The states onslaught that will change Cash is King to PAS is King-maker

Umar Mukhtar

With so many procedural obstacles to attempt a vote of no confidence in the federal parliament, the anti-Najib forces have abandoned that approach. Now it seems that the second-liners are attempting a novel gambit at the state assemblies. No, not votes of no confidence against the various MBs, but acts that may have the same effect.

It involves the states that Barisan Nasional have marginal majorities like Terengganu, Kedah, Perak and even Negeri Sembilan. The gambit is that a few ADUNs say, one to four from BN, will declare themselves as independents, thus turning these states to be under BN minority governments after losing their majority.

These ADUNs will take great pains to say at press conferences that they love the BN and are only doing this as their protest against ‘Najib’s BN’. The effect on the ground is that they will not join the opposition but will vote against the state governments to paralyse them. They will not ask for a vote of no confidence against the state MB who will be allowed to continue holding office.

How long will this situation persist? For as long as Najib is PM, it seems. A warning of things to come. They will call for his resignation and will start the ball rolling for rebellions among the BN ADUNs in all states.

If the four states were to fall, BN will only be ruling six states: Perlis, Pahang, Melaka, Johor. Sarawak and Sabah. While the opposition will also control the remaining seven state assemblies: Terengganu, Kelantan, Penang, Kedah, Perak, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. This doesn’t include the federal territories that do not have state assemblies, but where the opposition is overwhelmingly influential judging by its parliamentary seats huge majority.

The pertinent fact, if this were to occur, is that UMNO controls only five state assemblies: Perlis, Pahang, Melaka, Johor and Sabah. An obvious minority. Where does that place Najib as leader of the powerful UMNO? More than embarrassing, the states will not be able to operate properly. The deserting ADUNs may vote against the supply bills and annual budgets of those states if it comes to that.

Will this approach be successful in removing Najib as PM and UMNO party president? Will this approach be undertaken successfully in the first place? Well, with the right inducement there are anti-Najib ADUNs willing to risk not being chosen as candidates the next time around if Najib wins this caper. Money is no object for the anti-Najib forces, and if Najib digs into his huge war chest to compete, that’s a huge number ADUNs to please nation-wide.

Subject to not having incriminating PDRM or MACC files, these game ADUNs do not have much to lose, especially those who already have an inkling that they won’t be chosen as candidates for PRU14 for various reasons. Furthermore, they will be looked upon as self-sacrificial heroes brave enough to take drastic steps to save UMNO. Retire with a huge pension fund! But this windfall may not happen.

How will Najib counter this move? Sure, cash is king, but there’s a limit even to apparently bottomless donation boxes. Najib will have no choice but to talk to PAS to help defend his state governments but PAS has the choice of not talking to Najib! Would PAS deal with Najib? Hmm, with offers that they can’t refuse, why not? After all, there’s not too much love lost between PAS and the other opposition parties.

How about some breaks that PAS needs from Najib? Like their Hudud agenda which requires federal parliamentary votes for amendments to restrictive statutes? How about ‘wang ehsan’ for Kelantan’s oil, which the federal government is exploiting? Many others. But Najib’s capitulation in the Hudud issue may drive non-UMNO BN ADUNs especially in Sabah to switch camps. So, damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.

These threats are supposed to take place during the Sarawak state elections, which are coming soon. Quite a plateful for Najib to handle then but he can depend on excellent advice from his brilliant PMO boys. How do you counter this back-door listing, boys?