Will Azmin force his ways on PKR, or will he walk away with his generals?

Umar Mukhtar

Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali needs to be politically nimble to survive the rough seas ahead. But his party, PKR, seems quite set in maintaining its place in the Pakatan Harapan coalition, Parti Amanah Negara (PAN), which had replaced PAS with its splinter group. This would still be alright for Azmin if PAN and PH can deliver the seats he needs to continue helming the Selangor state government. So far, PAN is nothing more than an upstart party.

Without PAS support, PKR is sure to lose some seats come PRU14. That means DAP will win the most seats and will lead the state government with its token Malay candidates placed in safe Chinese areas. With PAN seen as DAP’s Malay stooge, Azmin and PKR will play second fiddle to DAP. And if on the other hand PAS is able to maintain its number of seats, PKR and PH will be left out high and dry. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t, PKR!

Realising this, Azmin is seeking to be PAS’s friend perhaps even at the expense of breaking up PH. PKR may lose some seats, too, as a result of not being DAP’s friend but, in these cases, the winner of the seats will either be PAS or UMNO. And if PKR is PAS’s friend and Azmin becomes UMNO’s friend, the seats can be negotiated to please the three parties at the expense of PH. And they can easily form the state government and the palace, just as it is now, will favour Azmin as MB.

That is why Azmin is not burning his bridges with PAS and UMNO. But is this ad hoc arrangement in Selangor also workable in other parts of the peninsular? Obviously, PKR president Wan Azizah Ismail (KETUM’s proxy) doesn’t think so. And so far she seems intent on staying in PH. So things have come to a head. Either Azmin overrides his president or he leaves with his generals, leaving PKR its frail self, with its de facto numero uno in prison.

The bulk of PKR’s elected representatives are with Azmin while those depending on non-Malay votes like Johari Abdul (Sungai Petani) and Surendran (Padang Serai) being examples of PKR MPs now shitting in their pants for fear of the possible success of Azmin’s gambit. Control of a political party is supposedly dependent on the support of its divisional leaders at grassroots level. Here, the support for Azmin is still untested but do not underestimate his tentacles.

The thing with PKR is it has only about 50,000 card-carrying members nationwide, in spite of the boasts by party leaders that it exceeds ten times that. The members vote at party elections, but PKR’s real support is during general elections from the fence sitters who are not bothered with party politics. For Azmin to round up this small handful of members is easy meat. The dwindling number of Anwarinas may stay loyal to Wan Azizah for sentimental reasons.

Will Azmin dare to go against Anwar Ibrahim, his old boss to whom he owes his political career? If possible, Azmin personally will choose not too. But ‘hulubalang istana’ like Saifuddin Nasution, Rafizi Ramli, Johari Abdul, Nurul Izzah Anwar and Wan Azizah herself are such a pain to deal with that Azmin may just decide to sacrifice them all in order to save PKR and himself. A lot can happen while Anwar is in prison, and remote control is not the answer.

Anwar will stick with his wife just as she has stuck with him through thick and thin. Otherwise, Anwar would do as Azmin would if he was in Azmin’s place. It would be different if Wan Azizah had a mind of her own and a little bit of political acumen to boot. As it is, PKR is not a party in which political nimbleness is appreciated and nourished. PKR must grow to be beyond the bridging party it is, and hold its own as a force not dependent on others.

Time will wait for no one and Azmin knows that it is time to move on.