BN could enjoy another landslide victory in the twin by-elections

BN would have the best platform for its political strategists to secure a major victory in the 14th General Election despite being tainted by a few major financial scandals and abuse of powers.

Dominic Chia

The Election Commission had announced the by-election date for Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar as 18th June. The commission also set the date for early voting as 14th June, and 5th June for nomination. The twin by-elections are also touted as the best litmus test for the upcoming 14th General Election in year 2018.

Weakening opposition coalition   

While opposition parties are suffering growing rifts, BN is expected to gain an advantage from it. The recent spat between DAP and PKR over seats during the Sarawak’s State Election is stark evidence of their weakening coalition. The contest over seats had drawn heavy criticisms – even among the die-hard supporters of opposition parties.

Last year, PAS and DAP traded barbs over Hudud and ended their relationship. Eventually, on the 16th Sept 2015, Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) was formed by a group of progressive PAS members lead by Mat Sabu – who oppose PAS’s stance to not cooperate with DAP. Despite projecting itself as BN friendly, PAS teamed up with Ikatan Bangsa Malaysia (Ikatan), another political party led by Tan Sri Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir, former Information Minister, on the 16th Mac 2016. This new unlikely team is now seen as the third political block after BN and Pakatan Harapan.  

Past election results

If we look at the past election results for Sungai Besar: the late Noriah Kansan won the seat with only 399- majority votes – defeating PAS’s Mohamed Salleh M Husin in a two-cornered fight; whereas in Kuala Kangsar, the late Wan Mohammad Khairil won the seat with 1,082 majority votes – defeating Khalil Idham Lim Abdullah of PAS and Kamilia Ibrahim, an independent contender – in a three-cornered fight.  

However, based on the current affairs among the opposition parties, it is almost confirmed that both constituencies will face at least three-cornered fights this coming 18th June. And of course, the loosened ties between the oppositions will contribute to a rise in majority votes comparatively for BN.

Adding to this, the recent landslide victory of BN in Sarawak’s State Election is a classic example, where many of its constituencies witnessed three-cornered fights which verily favoured BN and also increased the majority votes comparatively. BN also managed to win big in the state election despite opposition parties’ efforts to smear its image with the 1MDB-scandal and GST issues.

On the other hand, the Opposition blamed Sarawak’s state government’s barring of a number of key opposition political leaders from entering the land of the Hornbill and the widespread money-politics for their worst ever performance in the state election.

Spat between PKR and PAS

Adding salt to the wound, Azmin Ali, Menteri Besar of Selangor, had also urged PAS to give way for PKR to contest in Sungai Besar. However, PAS is adamant in contesting the seat. Other than PAS, AMANAH’s leader Mat Sabu , is also eyeing the Sungai Besar seat to prove AMANAH’s strength following its embarrassing defeat in Sarawak’s state election. In Kuala Kangsar, the situation would be almost the same, where PAS and PKR will definitely compete with BN for the seat. And AMANAH is most likely to join the hunt.   

Sympathy votes

Since both seats were occupied by the late BN leaders without any major flaws in their track record, their untimely deaths are expected to draw overwhelming sympathy votes. So I would say that it is not an exaggeration if BN manages to repeat its landslide victory in the coming twin by-elections.

Litmus test

Should this weakening of the opposition coalition continue, BN would have the best platform for its political strategists to secure a major victory in the 14th General Election despite being tainted by a few major financial scandals and abuse of powers. Having said this, it is indeed the twin by-elections which is going to be the litmus test for BN and the rest of the political parties to define their future in the upcoming General Election.