Consequences Umno will have to face

When elected reps are compelled to take sides based on their religious affiliations, what we are going to have is no longer a political rivalry but religious rivalry which will eventually tear up the Malaysian society.

Tay Tian Yan, Sin Chew Daily

The reactions of Chinese Malaysians as well as other non-Muslim communities in the country have far exceeded Umno’s presumptions.

Already six MCA, Gerakan and MIC ministers have expressed their determination to relinquish their cabinet posts if Hadi Awang’s private bill on hudud gets passed in the Parliament.

Chinese Malaysians and the local Chinese associations have strongly protested the bill in a rare occasion in recent years, as it has encroached on community rights bottomline.

Some BN parties based in Sabah and Sarawak have also stated their stand, with Joseph Kurup, the Sabahan minister in the PM’s department, threatens possible separation of Sabah and Sarawak from Malaysia were the bill passed.

Kurup is voicing the will of majority of East Malaysian parties.

Of the 25 parliamentary seats of Sabah, 11 are non-Umno seats while all 31 parliamentary seats of Sarawak are non-Umno. Adenan has pledged to reject hudud and further religionization of the country.

If Umno insists to go ahead with its endorsement of hudud, the first consequence it will have to face will be the disintegration of BN and the resulting shaky administration.

Other multiracial and non-Muslim component parties in BN feel that they have been betrayed as they have not been consulted at all. If Umno were to insistently go on its way, it is a matter of time BN will eventually collapse.

Unable to answer to their supporters, BN component parties will have to draw a clear line between themselves and Umno, forcing the coalition to fall apart.

If this were to happen, an imminent danger will be the collapse of the federal administration. It’s impossible for Umno to form a coalition government with PAS alone, as its 86 seats plus PAS’ 14 will not even make a simple majority in the 222-seat Parliament.

The only thing that can be done is to dissolve the Parliament to pave way for an early general election which will not necessarily give Umno an upper hand.

The second possible consequence Umno will have to face is deepened communal and religious confrontation that will eventually tear the country apart.

If Umno and PAS want the private bill passed in the Parliament, they must first secure the cooperation from Muslim reps on both sides of the political divide, including Amanah, PKR, PBB and DAP.

Amanah’s stand has been ambiguous. Its president Mat Sabu has on the one hand expressed his support for hudud which “could solve human problems and bring happiness” but on the other hand insisted more propaganda and discussions are essential.

That could best be interpreted as approval with some reservations depending on the needs and situation. Such an attitude will not win the favor of the Muslim community while triggering increased wariness among non-Muslims in the country.

PKR has so far not stated its official stand. The party needs to face the political reality. As it can neither support nor reject hudud, all it can do is to avert the problem as far as possible. But, there is no way the party can shun the reality when it comes to the time to debate and vote on the bill.

Given the fact that PKR is beginning to experience a split within the party without a leader that can effectively unite all factions, the most likely development is for its reps to vote at their free will according to their individual needs.

When it comes to a critical moment to force through the bill in a vote, Umno and PAS will invariably force the other Muslim reps to vote in favor of the bill in the name of religion, and even might mobilize the Muslim community to exert pressure on them.

In the meantime, MCA and other non-Muslim parties on both sides of South China Sea will have to firmly guard the defense line and not to compromise to the least.

When elected reps are compelled to take sides based on their religious affiliations, what we are going to have is no longer a political competition but religious rivalry which will eventually extend to the whole Malaysian society, entrenching religious emotions and conflicts to a degree far beyond our imagination.

Shaky administration and national division are two grave consequences Umno will have to face. The price is way beyond what the party can bear.

The crisis is still in its rudimentary stage at this moment, and we still can nip it in the bud. To be a responsible leader of the country, it is imperative that Najib decisively withdraw his support for Hadi’s private bill and stop colluding with PAS on the issue of hudud.