Reality bites in by-elections

For the past few years, it appeared like DAP had emerged as the party that could put Umno in its place. What DAP failed to appreciate was that they were able to do that partly due to the back-up from PAS.

Joceline Tan, The Star

LIFE in Sekinchan felt good in the cool breeze of the late afternoon. The sun was about to sink behind the horizon and the rice fields rippled like a sea of gold.

Several tourists were eagerly posing for pictures by the rice fields, holding stalks of rice. They must have thought that rice comes from the supermarket shelves going by their thrilled body language.

Across the narrow country road from the fields, a pair of middle-aged ladies with tattooed eyebrows and amber-coloured hair were lounging on the benches outside the Nan Thien Gung or southern celestial temple that is devoted to the Nine Emperor Gods.

The ladies giggled when asked whether they had come to pray at the temple. They are locals and the temple rest-stop was apparently part of their daily exercise routine to reduce their generous waistlines.

The Nine Emperor Gods are associated with the Hokkiens and it is obvious that Sekinchan has a sizeable Hokkien population going by the rather grand temple featuring an elaborate roof and twin pagodas.

The ladies were quite forthcoming about life in this rice-growing village, talking freely about their love for mahjong and karaoke and gossiping about the owners of the some of the newly renovated homes in the vicinity.

But the moment the conversation turned to the by-election, the shutters came down on their expression. They were clearly reluctant to share their political preferences or to talk about who they intended to vote for.

The local folk seem guarded, even secretive, about their vote. Three years ago, these very same people would have eagerly volunteered their political opinion and pressured others to vote for the opposition even if the candidate was from PAS.

What is going on with these people and why have they retreated from that in-your-face politics?

These ladies hail from a part of Sekinchan known for its hardcore DAP supporters and it is unlikely they are preparing to switch their support.

“It’s a by-election, they can feel everybody looking at Sungai Besar. They don’t want to offend any particular party,” said Datuk Andy Lim, a businessman residing in Pekan Sungai Besar.

This is a Malay heartland seat and the Chinese, who make up 31% of the 40,000 voters, are basically surrounded by a Malay hinterland.

Three years ago, the Chinese voice had occupied centerstage in Malaysian politics. But that is no longer the case, given the significant shift in Malay politics and sentiment.

The Chinese are free to support who they want, but their days as kingmaker in national politics seem to be over.

It has taken some time for the reality to sink in. The outcome of the Sarawak election drove home the point, and the twin by-elections will underscore the reality.

Umno will never return to the kind of supremacy it enjoyed during those golden years of Malay politics, but it is now at its most confident and stable since the 2008 political tsunami and is set to remain in power.

A great deal of the political shift has to do with the fact that PAS is now out of the opposition coalition.

The Islamist party brought with it the Malay numbers as well the moral clout. Without the PAS presence, DAP and PKR have been left floundering and ever more dependent on the Chinese.

The situation is further compounded by the fact that PAS and Umno seem to be closer than ever before.

For the past few years, it appeared like DAP had emerged as the party that could put Umno in its place. What DAP failed to appreciate was that they were able to do that partly due to the back-up from PAS.

Now, without a strong Malay/Muslim party behind it, DAP’s attacks against Umno becomes perceived as racial and even anti-Islam.

Unseemly incidents veering on sensitivities have erupted in the course of the campaigns.

A few days ago, a DAP ceramah in Kuala Kangsar was forced to stop temporarily following complaints from people carrying out terawih prayers in the nearby mosque.

If Pakatan Rakyat was still around, PAS would have come to DAP’s defence.

“The fasting month is special to us. You can see that the Malay campaign is quite toned down. We have to avoid attacks or harsh words,” said Kapar Umno division chief Datuk Faizal Abdullah.

Faizal, who is overseeing two voting areas in Sungai Besar, said the Barisan campaign revolves around sahur, breaking of fast, terawih prayers and the late night or supper session.

The focus is also on house-to-house campaigns and walkabouts by the candidate Budiman Mohd Zohdi.

Some relatives of Amanah candidate Azhar Abdul Shukur had wanted to come out to voice their disapproval of him contesting on the Pakatan Harapan platform.

But Faizal said the Umno team did not want to go in that direction and had to calm down the relatives.

Azhar’s father used to be an Umno strongman having been Tanjung Karang division chief as well as an MP and assemblyman in his time, and his relatives thought he had besmirched his father’s legacy in the area.

It is a touchy issue but it is a sign of changing times.

Azhar was picked in the hope that he would be able to draw away fencesitters who might otherwise have voted for Umno. But his campaign thus far seems to be moving largely in the Chinese areas.

There has been no clearly defined campaign message giving the people a strong reason to go for Amanah over PAS.

Moreover, Azhar’s PAS opponent Dr Rani Osman is quite well-known given his standing as the Meru assemblyman. Despite his stern face, he has a sense of humour and would sometimes joke to Indian reporters, “call me Rani Mukherjee,” a reference to a well-known Bollywood figure.

Meanwhile, journalists in Kuala Kangsar are still getting used to a campaign where the candidate cannot campaign.

Barisan candidate Datin Mastura Mohd Yazid is still observing the Muslim mourning period, and her four sons have been campaigning on her behalf.

Mastura was an active and supportive political wife but the death of her husband has left her looking sad and sombre. Her posters show a mournful-looking lady with deep laugh lines.

The PAS candidate Dr Najihatussalehah Ahmad is a pleasant-looking lady who speaks Chinese. If this was 2013, the medical doctor with a mouthful of a name could have made it past the tape but, again, the wind has shifted.

“The PAS machinery in Kuala Kangsar beats that of Pakatan Harapan hands down,” said one journalist.

Perak Amanah deputy chief Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin’s penchant for controversy has not helped.

His ceramah remarks about the helicopter tragedy being “divine retribution” for the way Barisan took over Perak was so politically incorrect.

DAP and Amanah are also struggling to find their way around because they have no established network in Kuala Kangsar.

Unisel vice-chancellor Prof Redzuan Othman has predicted a low voter turnout of between 60-65% in Sungai Besar.

Almost 40% of Sungai Besar voters do not live in the area and there will be an impact if not all of them return to vote.

The foregone conclusion of the polls means that outstation voters who stay far away may not bother to make the effort.

Another likely deterrent is that many younger voters who do not support Barisan have also given up on Pakatan Harapan.

The two by-elections could not have come at a worse time for the troubled Pakatan Harapan.

It has laid bare their lack of unity and the big hole left by the exit of PAS.

Without PAS, the coalition is limping along on one leg and nowhere is this more obvious than in Sungai Besar.

“Selangor is supposed to be a Pakatan Harapan stronghold and there is a lot at stake here,” said political analyst Khaw Veon Szu.

Banners of Datuk Seri Azmin Ali are strung along the main roads but the handsome Selangor Mentri Besar has not been seen in Sungai Besar since nomination day.

The Pakatan Harapan people have been asking each other: “Where is AA?”

On nomination day, he made a surprise appearance at the nomination centre, looking unperturbed and moving seamlessly among the competing parties, approaching everyone from Amanah to PAS and Umno as though they were his dear friends.

But the fact remains that he has not lent his clout as Mentri Besar to the campaign and that has given rise to speculation about where he stands between his own coalition partner Amanah and frenemy PAS.

There is also talk that Azmin is fed-up and embarrassed by the fact that two partners in his state government are fighting for the seat.

“Imagine if this were a general election. It would be like the Selangor government fighting the Selangor government,” said Khaw.

Azmin is trying to keep a low profile in this super awkward situation.

But the real headache for him lies ahead because the signs are that the political tsunami of 2008 is starting to retreat.

The outcome of the two by-elections will be more than just about claiming the seats. It could be the harbinger of what lies ahead in the next general election.