Twin polls an acid test for Amanah, pundits say

(MMO) – Whether or not Parti Amanah Negara can prove itself a significant political party at the next general election will be known on June 18 when Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar vote, analysts said.

The fledgling party of Malay-Muslim moderates who split from PAS last year has yet to provide a distinct ideology and must compete for votes in a political arena against far more established foes who have gained loyal supporters within their set racial and religious demographic group.

Though Amanah president Mohamad Sabu managed to sway 20 per cent of PAS members to join him, analysts said the new party has a high wall to surmount to escape the conservative Islamist party’s shadow without stepping into the urban base of its Pakatan Harapan ally, PKR.

“By virtue of being the new party your ideology, your message is pretty unknown. It’s not well communicated as yet and enable people to understand. But what is worst is that there are already other parties who might be championing the same cause,” Professor Datuk Mohamad Abu Bakar of Universiti Malaya told Malay Mail Online.

“If you talk about Islam, PAS has gone quite far with it; and if you talk about anti-establishment you have PKR… so much of the ground that could be covered by Amanah has already been covered by other parties. This means there is less room to manoeuvre,” he added.

The kingmakers

Amanah has thrown its hat into the ring for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar, two suburban parliamentary constituencies on the west coast of peninsular Malaysia where the voter population is over 60 per cent Malay Muslim.

In Sungai Besar, Amanah local boy and election newcomer Azhar Ab Shukur is up against PAS’s Meru assemblyman Dr Abdul Rani Osman and Umno’s Sungai Panjang assemblyman  Budiman Mohd Zohdi while its Kuala Kangsar hopeful Dr Ahmad Termizi Ramli, a nuclear scientist is engaged in a four-way battle against Umno’s Datin Mastura Yazid, widow of the deceased incumbent, PAS’s Dr Najihatussalehah Ahmad and independent candidate Izat Bukhary Ismail Bukhary, a Kelantan-born.

Although Amanah’s brand of progressive Islamic politics may appeal to urban Malay Muslims, PKR has already staked a claim in those parliamentary constituencies.

Professor Jeniri Amir, also from Universiti Malaysia, said Amanah has a strong chance of dominating ethnic Chinese voting streams in the two seats, but was doubtful that the minority support would help the party.

He said Amanah would still need to infiltrate the Malay ground, including wooing PAS supporters.

“PAS have stronger base there… because they have been there for a long long time and even a good track record. But they might win a lot of support from the Chinese.

“However, I believe the Malays will continue to support PAS,” Jeniri told Malay Mail Online.

Mohamad said Amanah’s best bet is to try and capitalise on the prevalent anti-establishment sentiment concerning bread-and-butter issues like inflation.

“It could ride on the current anti-establishment mood. But whether it is good enough, it is hard to say for the simple reason that those within PAS will still stick with PAS, meaning they would stick and sink with PAS,” he said.

A gamble

The Chinese make up about 30 per cent of the total Sungai Besar electorate and 22 per cent for Kuala Kangsar. These voters are likely to reject PAS due to the party’s growing hardline Islamic tendencies, and particularly its push for the implementation of hudud laws.

And there is a chance that the minority community’s support can help Amanah edge out PAS in a popularity race, if not the by-elections, independent analyst Khoo Kay Peng said.

“I think there is only one thing that Amanah is trying to prove [by contesting] is that who is more popular, and how much Amanah is able to take away the core support from PAS… this by-election is a chance for them to gauge.

“I think if they can perform better than PAS, this is something worth celebrating. That is a possibility because they are mixed seats,” he told Malay Mail Online.

Khoo added that if Amanah could tap 30 per cent of PAS’s core supporters, it would be good enough to indicate its potential as a real threat to its parent party.

The two Universiti Malaya professors shared the view that Amanah has a lot riding on the twin by-elections and will have to go all out to show it is capable of shaping the national political landscape or be relegated to the backseat when the 14th general election swings by.

“Whether or not they can be around for the future will partly depend on the by-elections. If the party is able to acquire a large following, then the party can gain some momentum in the general election. But that too won’t be longstanding,” Mohamad said.

“But if the party does not do well, it is going to fade away sooner than later,” he added.