BN to win both seats, Politweet predicts

The social media researcher says the multi-cornered fights and uncertainty among Chinese voters over voting for PAS or Amanah favours the BN.

(FMT) – The Barisan Nasional will take both the Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar parliamentary seats in the June 18 by-elections, Politweet predicts.

Politweet attributes this to the multi-cornered contests, saying it will divide the votes. A Politweet study also shows it is unclear whether Chinese voters, who were the main factor behind Pakatan Rakyat’s performance in GE13, will support PAS or Amanah.

Also, there is a small positive swing of Malay voters to the Opposition in Sungai Besar. However, it is the reverse in Kuala Kangsar where there is a move by Malay voters away from the Opposition.

Politweet is a non-partisan research firm analysing interactions among Malaysians using social media.

It made its findings based on estimated figures from the 2015 Q4 electoral roll. It said the number of postal voters was too small to significantly affect the expected support levels.

It’s method of predicting election results is based on voting patterns in previous elections and it relies on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. Politweet admits that its predictions are not 100 per cent accurate.

There are 1,049 Twitter users in the Sungai Besar constituency while there are 660 users in the Kuala Kangsar constituency.

Politweet said in the 13th General Election, Chinese voter support and swing to PR (PAS) was good in both seats. However support from Malay voters was below 50 per cent in both seats, particularly Kuala Kangsar.

It said the negative swing in Kuala Kangsar suggested that Malay voters would be harder for PAS to win over in the by-election

There is some evidence to suggest increasing support from Malay youth in Sungai Besar. This may serve to PAS’ advantage in the by-election.

Based on GE13 results, Politiweet said, in Sungai Besar, support from Chinese voters was close to or above 60 per cent, with support reaching 70 per cent for voters below 42 years old. Support from Malay voters was below 50 per cent, with the highest support from voters aged 34 years and below.

In Kuala Kangsar, support from Chinese voters was close to or above 60 per cent in GE13. Support from Malay voters was below 50 per cent, with a downward trend starting at 47.5 per cent from 22 year-olds and dropping to 34 per cent and below for voters aged 62 years and above.

In Sungai Besar, prior to GE13, BN had a clear lead with 68 per cent of the voters leaning towards BN. After GE13 PR increased their share of support by 17 per cent while BN lost 17 per cent. The proportion of fence-sitters remains the same at 14 per cent.

It said about 75 per cent of Malay voters in Sungai Besar leaned towards the BN and that Malay voters have been largely pro-BN before and after GE13.

In Kuala Kangsar, prior to GE13, BN had a slim lead with 52 per cent of the voters leaning towards BN. After GE13 BN increased their share of support by 6 per cent while PR gained 2 per cent. The proportion of fence-sitters has reduced by 8 per cent.