Sg Besar, Kuala Kangsar polls defining moment for future of Umno & Malay politics
Baradan Kuppusamy, The New Straits Times
The twin by-elections in Sungei Besar and Kuala Kangsar that entered their final lap with voters going to the polls on Saturday, are a defining moment for the future of Umno and Malay politics.
The outcome of the polls will decide the future of two new players in the political landscape – Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) and its ally DAP and former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad with his ‘save Malaysia’ campaign.
Ironically, Dr Mahathir has managed to rope in his arch enemy DAP and even worse, parts of PKR, to support his campaign which aims to topple Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
Dr Mahathir’s success in getting PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and his supporters to support his campaign has sparked fierce opposition from within PKR.
Even PKR ketua umum Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has tried to influence the outcome by writing letters from prison warning PKR leaders against working with to Dr Mahathir.
The two opposition parties – PKR and DAP – are participating because they are seeking to ride on Dr Mahathir to further their similar aims – to dethrone Najib also.
While he has been successful in getting their support Dr Mahathir’s natural allies in Umno have forsaken him in the twin by-elections.
Former deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, his son and former Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir and former minister and incumbent Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, who were all vocal have suddenly gone silent.
Not only they did not campaign like Dr Mahathir in the by-elections, but Shafie has made a u-turn turning up in Sungai Besar on nomination day, in support of BN.
All these events indicate that Najib has managed to have his way in Umno, of which he is president. Only a few Umno branch leaders are protesting against him.
If BN wins big in both by-elections it will indicate that Dr Mahathir’s campaign has lost steam.
“It will be difficult for him to revive his campaign after such defeats. It will indicate that the people have rejected him,” said a political analyst who declined to be named.
“Dr Mahathir must face up to the consequences of defeat,” he said adding any positive outcome for BN will come out as negative for Dr Mahathir.
“It will show that Umno, Malays and the people have rejected his message,” he said.
The two by-elections also sees Pas fighting for its political life against a determined onslaught from newcomer PAN.
Pas is fighting hard to emerge as runners-up behind BN.
“It does not want to end up last. It wants to show its supporters that Pas, hudud and its Islamic agendas are all very relevant,” said a Pas leader who added if Pas is defeated and emerges third, than it is very likely that more Pas members might defect to PAN.
As it is now, PAN has about 20 per cent of former Pas supporters as members, although it can attract some “fence sitters”.
If Pas is defeated in its race with PAN the possibilities remain that Pas would be forced into its “backwater” status, its Islamic message effective only in the Malay heartlands states.
It is undeniable that Pas expanded dramatically after cooperating with Pakatan Rakyat from 2008 but strangely, the new coalition Pakatan Harapan, has evicted Pas, the biggest Malay party after Umno.
Pas is now is a dance with Umno.
Another message of the twin by-elections is the relevance of hudud for Malay society.
Will Malays rally to the hudud banner as envisaged by Pas and vote for the party or will they vote for BN that stands for pragmatism, moderation, consensus and justice for all races?
Hudud had captivated conservative Malays for some five decades and the twin by-elections provide an ideal chance for Malay voters to make a clear choice – between Islamic syariah laws or the current legal set-up which has worked well, warts and all.
And the by-election would also indicate whether Chinese voters, who are 31 per cent in Sungai Besar and 24 per cent in Kuala Kangsar, buy the MCA and Gerakan argument that PAN and Pas have the same DNA – they both support hudud.
Since PAN is relying heavily on Chinese voter support, their campaign aims to draw away Chinese voters from PAN.
In this they tussle with their traditional enemy DAP, which created PAN.
A lot is thus riding on these by-elections – for BN, Pas, PAN and DAP – and above all for Dr Mahathir.
