The road to GE14

It looks like Najib is fortifying his position ahead of a push to the next general election.

Scott Ng, FMT

Prime Minister Najib Razak may not be the most popular prime minister Malaysia has had, but he has proven to be as cunning a political operator as his former patron and current chief opponent, Mahathir Mohamad, was in his prime.

As Mahathir’s influence weakens, Najib is showing that he is firmly in control of his position and his party. He can even cheekily raise his eyebrows at questions about GE14, which may well turn out to be the election that solidifies his power, especially with the opposition fractured and without a figurehead. Azmin Ali is too damaged a brand, PKR hovers at the brink of civil war, DAP is too toxic to the conservatives and Amanah is too new to have the following and loyalty commanded by PAS.

And let’s not even get started on PAS.

With analysts predicting that GE14 will be held next year and not in 2018, we’re beginning to see the election shaping up in rumours about Najib’s next big move – a Cabinet reshuffle. Veteran journalist Kadir Jasin sees the reshuffle as Najib’s chance to move against certain elements that may have been positioning themselves for a run against him, and after Umno has successfully spent a year defending the Prime Minister’s actions, there seems little that these elements can offer in terms of opposition.

Najib will likely seek to capture his strongest mandate yet in GE14, meaning he will want to sweep the board much like Mahathir did in his prime, which is a proposition made entirely possible by three cornered fights.

Reports suggest that Najib will first look towards addressing the rising street inflation and the general weakening of the economy.

While he still has a trust gap to overcome, even rough economic headwinds will in fact mean voters are less likely to vote opposition, especially given the fractured state of Pakatan Harapan and PAS’ current rogue agent role. All the PM has to do is continue mending his image quietly and focus on protecting the economy from the worst of the coming recession, and he will have set a legacy as the man who revolutionised public transport in the Greater Klang Valley and guided the country through the recession that inevitably follows the end of a bull rush.

That being said, he must strike while the iron is hot. First, the economy must be strengthened and inflation brought under control, and the opposition parties must be kept occupied with their own little dramas. Then, the bulwark in Umno must be strengthened, and any element who gets ambitious must be smacked down. With a little more of the same cunning and political gamesmanship he has shown thus far, Najib could solidify his position for years, if not decades to come.

While the overseas investigations into 1MDB affairs are still ongoing, the silence coming out of the agencies doing the investigating for the time being can only be waited out. Of course, there must be some worry that something might actually turn up from the probes, but that is out of the PM’s hands and as such extraneous to his plans for the march towards the next GE.

There remains the possibility that the investigations will produce, before the election, a bombshell that Najib cannot ignore. But it would be unwise for his opponents to hope for such a convenient turn of events. They must take the time between now and the GE to engage in self-reflection and regroup if they are to have any hope of a decent showing. The opposition parties have to work on the assumption that everything Najib does from now on will be aimed at the next GE, and if they are late to the ballgame because of their disunity, they may even see what little they have won slip out of their hands.