Can Shafie manage to do a Pairin?
Philip Golingai, The Star
CAN Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal do a Pairin in the next Sabah polls?
After Shexit (the suspended Umno vice-president quit the party on July 4), one of the questions on the minds of Sabah political observers is whether Shafie can galvanise the Opposition to bring down the Barisan Nasional state government.
(In the 1985 state election, Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan led his one-month-old Parti Bersatu Sabah to defeat the mighty Berjaya, a Barisan party, to form the state government.)
The Opposition in Sabah is fractured. In GE14, it looks like it will be Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Harapan versus United Sabah Alliance versus PAS versus Gabungan Rakyat Saksama. In order for the Opposition to overthrow the state government, it needs to break Umno’s hold on the Muslim-majority seats.
So far, since the Umno-led Barisan coalition took over Sabah in 1994, no credible Muslim opposition leader has emerged. Opposition supporters hope Shafie will be that Muslim politician.
To get an understanding of whether Shafie could emulate Pairin’s success, I contacted Datuk Mohd Noor Mansoor. He was a state finance minister in the Berjaya government. Now, the 74-year-old Mohd Noor is the chairman of United Sabah Alliance, a Sabah-based opposition coalition comprising Sabah STAR, Sabah Progressive Party and Parti Cinta Sabah.
“Can Shafie do a Pairin?” I asked Mohd Noor.
“It is too early to say,” he said. “He has the sympathy of people in Semporna, Kunak and Lahad Datu (seats in the east coast of Sabah). Shafie’s family is influential in these areas.”
Mohd Noor said he had been asked to attend a Shafie roadshow in Kota Belud.
“It is my kampung, so I will go. Whether there will be an exodus of Umno Kota Belud members leaving the party, I don’t know,” said the former Tempasuk assemblyman.
(Tempasuk is one of the three state seats under the Kota Belud parliamentary constituency held by Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan and the stronghold of Datuk Seri Dr Salleh Said Keruak.)
“Is the political situation in Sabah conducive to do a Pairin?” I asked.
“The situation then was different. During those days there were tangible errors committed (by Sabah Chief Minister Tan Sri Harris Salleh). For example, the Tambunan issue (after Pairin won a by-election in Tambunan, the Berjaya government abrogated the district), Labuan issue (the Berjaya government gave away Labuan island to become a Federal Territory) and Sandakan issue (the Berjaya government switched off the street lights in Sandakan town when DAP won the Sandakan parliamentary seat),” said Mohd Noor.
“There was enmity between the people and Harris. The sentiment was strong for PBS.”
In 1985, said Mohd Noor, support for Pairin was spread all over Sabah.
“But for Shafie at the moment, it is only in the east coast of Sabah. I have to gauge the support for his roadshow in Kota Belud and Tenom.”
“What’s your political advice to Shafie?” I asked.
“He has to play on the sentiment of his race, the Bajau and Suluks, and he has to get the support of the KDM (Kadazandusun and Murut),” he replied.
“Is he the Muslim leader who can break Umno’s hold on Muslim-majority seats?” I asked.
“He can play that role as far as the east coast of Sabah is concerned. But he won’t be as strong as Tun Mustapha Datu Harun (former Sabah Chief Minister) and Harris,” he said.
“Can Shafie do a Pairin?” I asked Ansari Abdullah, a veteran retired politician who was a Berjaya supreme council member when PBS swept into power.
“I don’t think so,” said the 61-year-old lawyer, who quit politics after PKR suspended him during GE13.
“Pairin had a strong network in the form of KDCA (Kadazandusun Cultural Association, of which Pairin is the president), he got support from the United Sabah Dusun Association, ex-Berjaya MPs and assemblymen and grassroots, and the United Pasok Nunukragang National Organisation (a Kadazandusun-based party),” he said.
“The people were not happy with Harris and Pairin managed to unite the anti-Harris people.”
Meanwhile, Shafie’s network is that of his former party Umno, according to Ansari.
“I’m told Shafie is a member of the United Sabah Bajau Organisation. However, Salleh (Kota Belud Umno head) controls Usbo,” he said.
To break Umno’s hold on Sabah, which has 60 state seats, Ansari said Shafie had to win the 32 seats allocated to the party.
(In GE13, only Datuk Lajim Ukin managed to defeat Umno in Sabah. The Muslim Bisaya leader had quit Umno and joined PKR as he had issues with Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman.)
The backbone of Sabah Umno are east coast Bajau and west coast Bajau, said Ansari.
“The leaders of west coast Bajau are Salleh, Rahman, Datuk Yahya Hussin and Datuk Hajiji Mohd Noor (all from Umno). At the moment, no big Bajau leader from the west coast has rebelled to support Shafie,” he added.
“How about east coast Bajau? Since Shafie is from there, does he have their support?” I asked.
“It has yet to be seen if he has the support of the Tun Sakaran Dandai faction,” he said, referring to Shafie’s uncle.
“He has to neutralise the warlords in the east coast of Sabah to get support in his power base Semporna and surrounding seats.”
So far, Sakaran’s son Datuk Nasir – who is Senallang assemblyman –has remained loyal to Umno. Sulabayan assemblyman Datuk Jaujan Sambakong, who is Shafie’s uncle, had earlier quit Umno, citing the suspension of Shafie as unfair.
Shafie’s Semporna parliamentary seat is made up of three state seats – Senallang, Sulabayan and Bugaya.
Shafie’s brother Datuk Mohd Yusof, the Lahad Datu assemblyman, has not resigned from Umno.
To win the Muslim-majority seats in Sabah, said Ansari, Shafie must win over the Muslim warlords and small warlords.
“The Muslim society in Sabah is very feudalistic. We have our own relatives who are leaders. These small warlords have pockets of 500 to 1,000 voters,” he said.
“Meanwhile, the Kadazandusun and Murut voters are not feudalistic. They will vote out their leader once they decide he is a stumbling block.”
“What’s your political advice to Shafie for him to do a Pairin?” I asked.
“He has to talk to these small warlords as they will organise for him to reach the grassroots. Most of them are not happy. Shafie needs to give them an offer that they will be better off supporting him,” he said.
“It is not an impossible task if he has the energy and I’m sure he has the money. He can’t win over the warlords like Salleh but he can try the small warlords.”
Sabahans wait to see whether Shexit will be a game changer in the state’s politics.
