Guess who else gains from a stronger DAP

The Lim family’s political legacy in Penang may be abruptly ended if a conviction comes without a prior election, as a by-election need not be called.

Tay Tian Yan, Sin Chew Daily

I was at a hawker stall in Penang’s Macallum Street Ghaut last weekend that saw customers queuing up for cold drinks in a sultry afternoon.

Shredding the ice, the stall owner chatted with his customers — most of whom regulars — largely around the heated topic of a possible snap election in Penang.

“Will a snap election really be called?” I interrupted.

The Chinese uncle on a motorcycle replied, “Of course, the CM will announce tomorrow.”

When the big shots of Penang’s ruling team were gathering in a public briefing the following day, no one touched on the future of Penang, talking mainly on two issues: LGE’s bungalow case and 1MDB.

While these two topics were sizzling hot in the country, the audience that evening was more concerned about an announcement of early polls by CM Lim.

CM Lim showed up at about ten, targeting specifically at 1MDB before arriving at the awaited state election. He first thanked the support of Amanah and then said PKR had yet to make a decision.

The snap polls will not be called without the nod of PKR.

DAP is adamant to carry on with the state election. LGE’s case needs mass participation and election is seen as the most effective way.

The more seasoned observers see things in a different light. Once the conviction is passed, LGE’s political career will be terminated prematurely. But given the fact that it is more than three years since the last state election was held, a by-election cannot be held and the Lim family’s political legacy in Penang may have to be abruptly ended.

As the state DAP chairman, Chow Kon Yeow will naturally take over the CM post.

Nevertheless, if a state election is called before a court decision is made, even if LGE were to be convicted later, a by-election can still be called for the seat he has won, and this gives rise to other possibilities.

This is by no means a brainy tactic but is absolutely helpful. The same goes for a jailed Anwar Ibrahim where Kak Wan was fielded in Permatang Pauh to take over her husband’s political heritage.

From the perspectives of family politics, indeed Penang is a veritable political resource and fortress not to be easily relinquished.

For instance, if Lim Kit Siang insists to take the top post, given his lofty position in party, there is no way for Penang DAP to say no; nor will the predominantly Chinese Penangites. Alternatively it will be seen as a norm if Betty Chew desires a more pivotal role than being a first lady.

New developments of 1MDB will invariably impact on PM Najib and the BN, providing an excellent opportunity for DAP and the bungalow-gate and land conversion controversies will get instantaneously overrun.

DAP believes that majority of Chinese in Penang are still on its side. While the party may not secure a larger majority this time, capturing all the contested seats will not be an issue.

That said, its Pakatan ally PKR is well aware of the drained support rate among the Malay voters. The further DAP distances itself from the Malay community, the more will the voters lean towards the BN.

It doesn’t matter even if all the Malay voters go for the BN because DAP needs only the votes of Chinese. However, PKR’s seats are mostly mixed constituencies, some with over half Malays. A small percentage of Malay voters swinging to BN is enough for PKR to lose in places like Sungai Bakap, Batu Maung and Seberang Jaya.

The more the Chinese support DAP, the more will the Malays rally behind Umno. Some of the parties that play a balancing role in such polarization like PKR, Gerakan, MCA and MIC will be slowly rendered irrelevant.

In the case of Penang, there is little prospect for MCA and Gerakan while PKR is suffering from a bottleneck. PKR has no confidence and will not want a snap election, which is understandable.

The same spells a gridlock in Malaysia’s politics.