Mahathir finally met his match in Najib

It took less than three years for Mahathir to topple Pak Lah. It is now more than three years and still Najib cannot be toppled. That is why Mahathir changed tactics and formed his new Pribumi party so that he can now try to topple Najib from the outside. But then that is precisely what Najib wanted him to do and Mahathir fell for it.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah once described Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as a beruk (Pig-tailed Macaque). The reason Razaleigh called Mahathir a beruk is because, as he explained, the stronger the gale the stronger the beruk would grip the coconut tree and will not fall. However, bila takde angin takde ribut, the beruk will fall by itself. Hence the way to bring down Mahathir, said Razaleigh, is to leave him alone and not fight with him. Then he will eventually just fall all by himself for no apparent reason.

Of course, Tengku Razaleigh was just being cheeky and the audience loved his wit. But then Pak Wan, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s father, who used to work for Mahathir, said that the old man loves controversy and loves to fight. And if there is no controversy or no fight he will get bored and will start one. Mahathir cannot go on for long without engaging in some sort of skirmish.

Yes, that is Mahathir, what we would call back in the old days, a fighter-cock (which still exists in some parts of Malaysia — cock fighting, that is). And who has Mahathir not taken on?

Mahathir quarrelled with the Chinese in 1969 (and lost the general election that same year when the Chinese voted for Yusuf Rawa of PAS to teach Mahathir a lesson). Mahathir quarrelled with Malaysia’s First Prime Minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman, who got ousted in 1970. Mahathir quarrelled with Malaysia’s Third Prime Minister, Tun Hussein Onn, and took over as the Fourth Prime Minister. (Malaysia’s Second Prime Minister, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, died in 1976 before Mahathir could start a quarrel with him — so he is quarrelling with Tun Razak’s son instead).

Mahathir quarrelled with the Americans, the British and the Australians, just like Idi Amin Dada did when he was ruling Uganda. In fact, many referred to Mahathir as Malaysia’s Idi Amin, which is no compliment considering that Idi Amin was said to be an utter lunatic second only to Adolf Hitler.

Mahathir quarrelled with the Lord President (Chief Justice) and his fellow judges. Mahathir quarrelled with His Majesty the Agong and his nine fellow state rulers. Sigh…I think it would be easier and a shorter list if we talk about whom Mahathir did not quarrel with rather than whom he quarrelled with.

One pet enemy of Mahathir is Singapore. He regards Singapore as the Israel of Asia and Singaporeans no different from the Jews (yes, Jews, another group of people who Mahathir hates to pieces). So anyone who is seen as friendly or accommodating to Singapore automatically becomes Mahathir’s mortal and life-long enemy (all the Prime Ministers after him included).

But above all else, more than anything in this world, what Mahathir hates the most is losing. He must win at all costs, never mind what it takes to win, by fair means or foul. And if he losses he will literally as well as figure of speech die. Losing is worse than death in Mahathir’s playbook.

And that is what is happening today. Mahathir is losing. And he just cannot take that. And Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak knows this. Hence Najib knows the right buttons to push to upset Mahathir. And every time Najib pushes these buttons Mahathir will melenting and his heart would flutter.

When he decided to oust the Fifth Prime Minister in June 2006, it took Mahathir less than three years to topple Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. But now it is more than three years and Najib is still in office. Worse than that, not only is he still in office, Najib is in fact stronger now than when Mahathir’s proxies first made their move on him two years ago in 2014.

Mahathir has been hammering away the 1MDB issue for the last two years since 2014 and still Najib will not fall. Najib was supposed to have fallen a year ago in July 2015 but that did not happen. And it looks like it may never happen, never mind how hard Mahathir keeps hammering the 1MDB issue.

Maybe Mahathir has not heard what Albert Einstein was supposed to have said: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.”

Yes, if the 1MDB issue could not bring Najib down by now that means it is never going to bring him down. Surely the Sarawak state election and the twin by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar would be very clear by now that 1MDB cannot do the trick that Mahathir hopes it can. So is it not insane for Mahathir to do the same thing over and over again while expecting different results?

Mahathir is worried that this may be the end for him. Realistically speaking, Mahathir does not have the luxury of time due to age and health issues and it would need time for his new Pribumi party to prove itself — if it is ever going to be viable in the first place.

Tengku Razaleigh’s Semangat 46 had a far better chance of success but even after eight long years it still could not go farther than just capture the state of Kelantan. Finally, after eight years of being neither here nor there, Tengku Razaleigh closed down his Semangat 46 and rejoined Umno together with many of his supporters. And Tengku Razaleigh’s Semangat 46 was stronger than Mahathir’s new Pribumi party by far.

Actually, Mahathir’s anxiety as to whether this may be the end is misplaced. The beginning of Mahathir’s end actually came about in 2013 when his son Mukhriz failed to win an Umno Vice President’s post. Mahathir should have realised then, but he did not, that Mukhriz’s failure reflected on the fact that the era of Mahathirism had come to an end.

Of course, Mahathir blames Najib for Mukhriz’s defeat. If Najib had instructed his cousin, Hishammuddin Hussein, to stand down then Mukhriz would have won third position instead of fourth. But then if someone needs to offer Mukhriz a walkover before he can win, that just means the Mahathir name no longer carries any weight.

And this is the reality check that Mahathir should have done but did not. Instead, he blamed Najib for Mukhriz’s defeat rather than accept the reality that Malaysians would like to move on and leave Mahathirism behind as a footnote in history.

Due to Mukhriz’s 2013 defeat, Mahathir began to plot an attack on Najib just like how the Japanese plotted the attack on Pearl Harbour. And Mahathir was going to use 1MDB as that sneak attack. And the plan was simple. Sabotage the IPO and block the loans that 1MDB needed. No company anywhere in the world would survive this type of onslaught.

That was probably the mistake that Najib made, just like the mistake the Americans made in December 1941 by not anticipating betrayal from the Japanese. Najib did not expect to be betrayed by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), the Special Branch (SB), his own Deputy Prime Minister (Muhyiddin Yassin), Shafie Apdal (an Umno Vice President), the Attorney General (Gani Patail), T. Ananda Krishnan (who was doing a deal with 1MDB, which included the IPO), and so on.

But after that sneak attack — just like after that Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 — Najib consolidated and counter-attacked. For example, Khairuddin Abu Hassan, at Mahathir’s behest, made a police report against 1MDB in December 2014. Within a month Khairuddin was declared a bankrupt and his house was auctioned off. He then lost his position in the Umno Batu Kawan division.

This slap was not so much on Khairuddin’s face but was meant for Mahathir. It was to demonstrate that Mahathir was not really that powerful after all and that he could not protect his people. Later Najib also moved against Muhyiddin, Gani, Shafie, Mukhriz, and many more. In the end all of Mahathir’s ‘foot soldiers’ got taken out one after another with Mahathir just looking on and not being able to do a thing about it.

When Mahathir realised the fight was going to get bloody and it may not actually be Najib’s blood that is going to be spilt, on 20th January 2015 he secretly sent word to Najib that he would like to call for a ceasefire. Najib agreed although his Boffin Boys felt that the ceasefire was just playing for time so that Mahathir can plot his next move.

So expect more acts of betrayal, said Najib’s Boffin Boys, but in the meantime let us humour the old man and see what he does. Mahathir did not want open warfare. He wanted a guerrilla war where he can throw stones but his hand would not be seen. Mahathir wants to slap Najib but he does not want to be slapped back. That was why he needed a ceasefire and buy time to plot his next move.

Mahathir realised that the attacks need to be covert and not overt. When he attacked Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi he did it openly. But he cannot do this a second time. First he attacks Abdullah and now he attacks Najib. People will say the problem is Mahathir and not Najib and Umno will support its President cum Prime Minister instead. So Mahathir’s hands must not be seen and he needs to use proxies to fight his war.

And even more important would be that it must be seen that Umno wants Najib out. So Mahathir needs people in Umno to attack Najib. If the opposition attacks Najib then Umno would close ranks and rally behind Najib. And the anti-Najib forces in Umno must not be sent to be working with the opposition or be seen to be serving the interests of the opposition. This is very crucial for the plot to succeed.

When Tengku Razaleigh, Musa and practically half of Umno, a.k.a. Team B, opposed Mahathir, the way the old man countered the attacks was to close down Umno, set up a new party (which he also called Umno), and not allow his adversaries to join the new party. Hence Tengku Razaleigh and gang were forced to form their own party and continue to attack Mahathir from outside Umno or as an opposition party in cooperation with other opposition parties.

That is why Tengku Razaleigh failed and after eight years he gave up and rejoined Umno.

Najib, however, played a smarter game. Instead of doing what Mahathir did back in 1987-1988, Najib pushed Mahathir into a corner and trapped him there so that the old man would become so flustered and frustrated he himself will resign from Umno and go join the opposition. Once Mahathir does that he would have committed hara kiri and would no longer be any threat to either Najib or Umno.

And the recent Sarawak state election plus the twin by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar proved that Najib was right. By leaving Umno and by teaming up with the opposition, Mahathir was assured of being on the road to self-destruction. Mahathir practically put a bullet into his own head.

What Mahathir did not realise is that he did precisely what Najib wanted him to do. And that is why Najib remained very silent all this while when he came under attack. Najib’s critics say that Najib must be guilty if he just keeps quiet and says nothing. The truth is silence is Najib’s ally and Mahathir’s enemy. Did the Japanese make so much noise before they attacked Pearl Harbour? They just whacked with no warning.

Mahathir, however, talks too much. He talks even before he acts. In the beginning he pretended he knows nothing about 1MDB. He said what he knows is what he has been told. He said he is acting against Najib because so many Umno leaders have secretly come to see him to ask him to act. Now he appears to know so much and is giving other reasons as to why he is acting against Najib.

Knowing that attempting to topple Najib from within Umno is a lost cause, Mahathir changed tactics and is now attempting to topple Najib from outside Umno, with the help of the opposition, like what Tengku Razaleigh tried for eight years and failed.

First Mahathir courted opposition support by launching the People’s Declaration and the ‘Save Malaysia’ campaign. In the beginning it received a warm reception from the opposition who felt they could use or tunggang (ride) Mahathir to bring down Umno. But when they realised that it was Mahathir who was trying to use the opposition instead, and that it was not really to bring down Umno but just to bring down Najib so that his son could be saved, the opposition lost some of their excitement.

Then the Sarawak state election and the twin by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar proved that Mahathir is a spent force and has lost his ‘pulling-power’. In fact, Mahathir may even end up as a liability if they allow him to join one of the opposition parties.

The opposition then announced that they are prepared to work or cooperate with Mahathir if he were to first form his own party. This was the opposition’s subtle way of getting rid of Mahathir. They knew that to allow Mahathir to join one of the opposition parties would have had an adverse affect.

The opposition wanted to distance itself from Mahathir and yet at the same time still sort of have him around in case they could somehow use him to hit Umno. It is like having the best of both worlds or like eating your cake and having it as well.

The opposition is not too sure whether Mahathir can help bring them up or whether he will slide down a slippery slope and drag them down together with him. So better that Mahathir has his own party than join one of the existing opposition parties. Then if Mahathir’s new party does not work out they can safely jettison it just like what they did to PAS not too long ago.

And this is precisely what Najib wanted. If Mahathir and his merry men join one of the opposition parties that would be an entirely different ball game. That would mean he has gained acceptance. But if Mahathir and gang are not accepted into the opposition but instead need to form their own party, that works better for Najib and Umno. The Semangat 46 saga has proven this and one cannot argue with history.

Mahathir’s new party is a single-purpose party. All it wants is to oust Najib. The question then remains: what do they do if and when Najib is ousted? Since the purpose of Mahathir’s Pribumi party is to oust Najib does that party still need to exist or will they close it down (like Semangat 46 did in 2006) if and when Najib is ousted?

Pribumi hopes that it will survive by taking away the votes from Umno. However, even Lim Kit Siang does not think this will happen. Pribumi is actually fishing in the same opposition pond, not in the Barisan Nasional pond. So every vote that Pribumi garners would be one less vote for the opposition.

The trouble is Pribumi is merely a political party just like Semangat 46 before and PKR now. Umno, however, is more than just a political party. It is a Malay institution. And that is the difference between Umno and the other Malay parties or parties with a Malay support base.

At least when Semangat 46 and PKR were formed they managed to attract many Umno members and leaders. Pribumi, however, is depending on opposition support. But then there are seven main opposition parties also fishing in the same pond. And therein lies the problem.

Mahathir is no longer the threat that he was, say, three years ago back in 2013. His new Pribumi party has ensured that Umno would now close ranks against what is considered an external enemy. Even more important is the fact that Mahathir or Pribumi do not really have any issues to use against Umno.

Mahathir and Pribumi are a single-issue party. The only issue is 1MDB. They hope that issue can bring Najib and Umno down. But if it could it would have already happened during the Sarawak state election or the twin by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar.

This is reminiscent of the Mata Lebam strategy in 1999. That strategy was good for only one year or for one election. By 2004 that issue was already basi (expired shelf life). And PKR was warned about it in 2001 but they did not listen. So in 2004 they got wiped out because they still talked about Mata Lebam when the voters were tired of that issue.

Are Mahathir and Pribumi going to learn from that? Or are they, together with PKR and DAP, going to continue flogging the dead horse called 1MDB and suffer what they suffered in 2004, the worst general election for the opposition in Malaysia’s history?

Mahathir needs to realise he cannot keep singing the same song and still be number one on the hit parade. Sometimes hit songs stay only a week as number one on the hit parade. A month is a rarity. But Mahathir is like a dog with a bone that bites and never lets go even when the bone is dry (and growls when you try to take that bone away).

Normally, if you want to know the possible outcome of any election, you ask the bookies. Since way back in the 1980s the odds the bookies are taking is a good indicator of any election. The recent Sarawak state election and the twin by-elections were accurately predicted by the bookies. And the odds the bookies are giving on Mahathir’s new Pribumi party are not good. And that says a lot about its future.

And with the Nika Gee divorce case coming up that involves Muhyiddin, I would not place my money on Mahathir’s Pribumi doing great guns in future. Pribumi is actually being bombed as its taxis on the runaway before it can take off.