Study shows Selangor redelineation may increase non-Malay support for DAP
(MMO) – The DAP will likely not only be unaffected by the proposed redelineation exercise in Selangor by the Election Commission (EC), but also stand to gain an even bigger non-Malay vote base there, a report by Politweet said.
According to the research outfit’s analysis, the proportion of non-Malay voters in DAP seats in the state was 74.26 per cent, but will shoot up to 77.42 per cent after redelineation, although the size of the seats is expected to grow by 26.13 per cent.
“DAP seats represent a larger, more non-Malay population of voters,” said Politweet in the report made available to Malay Mail Online.
In comparison, PAS’s seats will be reduced in size by 17.04 per cent but will have a higher percentage of Malay voters, while PKR seats will still represent a mix of ethnic groups, albeit a slight increase of Malay voters and decrease in Indian voters.
As a result of redelineation, Politweet said the transfer of voters will result in DAP seats having a higher percentage of Chinese and Indian voters, while Barisan Nasional (BN), PKR and PAS will have a higher percentage of Malay voters.
Five DAP seats are expected to lose a total of 31,952 voters as they are moved to PKR and PAS seats ― whereby 22,918 voters (72 per cent) are Malays, 5,688 voters (18 per cent) ethnic Chinese, and 2,288 voters (7 per cent) ethnic Indians.
Despite that, nine DAP seats will gain a total of 167,238 voters from PKR and PAS seats. From this, 37,142 voters (22 per cent) are Malays, 89,067 voters (53 per cent) Chinese and 39,262 voters (24 per cent) Indians.
“While DAP gained more Malay voters than it lost, the larger increases in the number of Chinese and Indian voters resulted in an increase in the proportion of Chinese and Indian voters,” Politweet noted in its report.
It added that BN state seats in Selangor will see little change and still represent a Malay-majority electorate.
According to Politweet, 443,484 voters will be transferred between existing seats due to the redelineation, changing the number of voters and ethnic composition in each seat.
Of those, 37 per cent of them are Malays, ethnic Chinese 44 per cent, and ethnic Indians 18 per cent.
According to its 1,000 simulations of the next state elections, BN has increased its chances to retake the state following the redelineation, especially if there are three-cornered fights involving the ruling coalition, Pakatan Harapan, and either PAS or Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
