The 19th November climax or anticlimax

Revolutions are never spontaneous; they are engineered. And revolutions are normally the result of a power struggle between different cliques of the ruling elite. And for a revolution to succeed blood has to first flow. But the post-revolution deaths and turmoil are always worse than during the revolution itself. And those who are using Bersih to oust Najib have to remember the cost that has to be paid.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Saturday, 19th November 2016, is either going to be the climax of the Anti-Najib Campaign (ANC) or it may end up in an anticlimax. In two days time we shall know and we shall also know whether Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would turun padang or whether he would monitor what goes on from afar.

Actually, Khomeini also monitored the goings-on in Iran from afar and came home to Teheran only after the Shah had been deposed and when it was safe to return. If not he would probably have suffered the fate of Benigno Simeon ‘Ninoy’ Aquino Jr. who was shot on arrival in the Philippines.

Leon Trotsky, Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin were also in exile overseas when the Russian Revolution a.k.a. the Bolshevik Revolution erupted in 1917. What many do not realise is that the Russian Revolution (just like the two French Revolutions of 1789 and 1830 was not one revolution but a series of revolutions.

Yes, the famous French and Russian Revolutions (and to a certain extent the Iranian Revolution of 1979) were long-drawn affairs that did not get settled in one swoop but went on and on, taking so many lives, before it settled down mainly because all the revolutionaries had killed each other off and there was no one left to kill.

For example, while history books talk about the Russian Revolution when Tsar Nicholas II was ousted (or rather he abdicated like what Mahathir wants Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak to do) that was not the end of the matter. Even after the Tsar stepped down the fighting between the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks, or the Red and White Russians, continued with many people from both sides of the conflict getting killed.

It was not until 1922 that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was created after 18 years of conflict that started in 1904. So revolutions or Arab Springs, etc., are not easy and straightforward affairs. They go on and on and even after the original target has been removed it does not end there. History has shown that, after the ouster, a power struggle normally ensues between the different factions or partners who, after achieving their objective, now want to emerge in-charge. And more deaths occur in the aftermath of the revolution than during the revolution itself. The Khmer Rouge ‘Killing Fields’ of Cambodia is one example where the post-revolution deaths were worse than during the revolution itself.

Mahathir is hoping that Saturday, 19th November 2016, is the day that Najib is ousted or steps down. But for that to happen the Saturday event must first be successful. It has to be the climax of the ANC. If it turns out as an anticlimax then Najib is just going to laugh in Mahathir’s face since the old man has emerged as the prime mover and mascot of the Bersih demonstration. So what would be the interpretation of ‘success’?

In Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines (and even in the Middle East since the Iranian Revolution of 1979) ‘success’ means chaos and deaths. Anarchy and deaths have to be the order of the day before Presidents and Prime Ministers can fall. There has to be blood on the streets to trigger that explosion which will result in the ouster of the CEO of the country.

But then, after that event, more events will follow. Students of history will know that for every revolution there will be a series of counterrevolutions. And the bloodbath during the counterrevolutions will be far worse and more severe than the bloodbath of the revolution.

Let’s talk about what is currently happening in the Middle East. The west calls it Islamic terrorism. Actually what the west is not telling us is that the Middle East is going through a counterrevolution. The west backed the ouster of various leaders in the Middle East and now they are suffering the backlash of counterrevolutions.

When the west backs the ouster of leaders they call it peoples’ power. When a counterrevolution occurs they call it terrorism. Yes, Americans who fought the British are patriots while the Chinese and Arabs who fought the British are terrorists. And all those who do not support Mahathir and his ANC are also traitors to the country when in 1998 all those who went against Mahathir were traitors and agents of the US (and were detained under the ISA).

Anyway, if you know your history, then you will know you need to fear the post-revolution events more than the revolution itself.

I mean, let’s say on Saturday the Red Shirts and Yellow Shirts clash and a few people die. What do you think is going to happen? Is Najib going to pack his bags and leave the country? The last time something like this almost happened about 30 years ago in October 1987, Mahathir threw sand on the fire by launching Operasi Lalang. In this roundup, 106 NGO activists and politicians from both sides of the political divide were detained without trial (yes many from Umno as well).

Is he Red Shirt or Yellow Shirt?

So Najib can always do what Mahathir did on 27th October 1987. He can launch Operas Lalang 2.0 tomorrow to prevent the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shorts from killing one another. Or he can do like what happened in May 1969 — he can allow the clash to happen and then when people die he can declare an emergency and gantung Parliament until further notice.

Either way Mahathir is going to complain although this is what he did and this is precisely what he would if he was the Prime Minister of Malaysia.

One thing you must always remember is you cannot fry the egg unless you break the shell. That means change does not come without sacrifice. No revolution in history has ever succeeded without loss of life. Even Gandhi’s peaceful rebellion saw loss of life although it was the British and not the Indians who did the killing.

So, is Saturday, 19th November 2016, going to be the climax of the ANC or are we going to see an anticlimax? As it is, with Mahathir leaving the country instead of turun padang that is already an anticlimax. If we want to see the ANC climax then Saturday’s event must result in Najib’s ouster. And that will never happen through a peaceful demonstration.

And once Najib is ousted via blood on the streets, get ready for the counterrevolution that always follows the revolution with a vengeance even worse than the revolution itself. The Yellow Shirts may win on Saturday. But that does not mean the Red Shirts will shake hands with the Yellow Shirts and concede defeat and go home and sleep.

And in response to Mahathir’s video above, see my video below.