Can PAS retain Kelantan?
The myth that PAS could be a national spoiler, as a third force, particularly to Pakatan Harapan, in GE14 needs to be examined closely.
Liew Chin Tong, Free Malaysia Today
Is PAS really strong in Kelantan? Is Umno ready to retake the state? Or will there be a new government in Kelantan in the form of Pakatan Harapan and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) in the next general election (GE14)?
In my more than 20 visits to Kelantan since 1993, including several extended field research trips for my honours degree thesis on PAS between 2002 and 2004, I have been always amazed by the political sophistication of the people of Kelantan.
Kelantanese elected successive PAS administrations between 1959 and 1978, and since 1990 till today. A strong sense of Kelantan regional sentiment vis-à-vis the federal government is an important factor, then and now.
In all elections since coming back into power in 1990, the confident yet humble Tok Guru Nik Aziz was a constant positive factor for PAS. Alas, the wise ulama is no longer with us, since 2015.
The uniqueness of Kelantan includes the strength of its people to reject the ridiculous “Chinese bogeyman” fear mongering tactic created by Umno. In fact, the “fear of DAP” storyline that often works in favour of Umno in many Malay-majority constituencies, has never worked in Kelantan because Kelantanese are more secure with their identity.
However, with PAS being seen closely aligned to Umno in recent times, and with Umno being bogged down by Prime Minister Najib Razak’s unpopularity, PAS is slowly losing its regional/anti-federal party streak in the eyes of many Kelantanese.
Kelantan boosts a large diaspora of people living in the Klang Valley who continue to vote back home. Some researchers believe that more than 20% of Kelantan voters reside outside Kelantan.
Most of the time, they vote according to the national mood swing which currently does not favour Najib and whomever is associated with him.
Therefore, the myth that PAS could be a national spoiler, as a third force, particularly to Pakatan Harapan, in the upcoming general election needs to be examined closely.
Also, many political pundits have taken PAS’ strength in Kelantan for granted without much scrutiny.
A closer look reveals a very different scenario, perhaps even shocking to some people.
In the battle for the Kelantan state assembly in GE14, PAS may not be able to maintain its third force ambiguity. The fact is PAS may be compelled to form an electoral pact with Umno in Kelantan, whether by choice or expediency.
Assuming Amanah can pose a serious challenge to PAS in 10 of its 33 incumbent state seats while PPBM is able to do so in five of Umno’s 12 incumbent state constituencies, PAS and Umno may not have the luxury of contesting against each other in Kelantan.
Also assuming Amanah, PPBM and PKR does not contest against each other but form a formidable coalition – battling either PAS or Umno, or even both, in three or four corner fights – the major losers won’t be Pakatan Harapan and PPBM.
