Kit Siang’s dream shattered with Mahathir heading for a fall

Mahathir is going down fast and is dragging Kit Siang down with him. That is what happens when you hitch yourself to a drowning man. Kit Siang’s plan is to march into Putrajaya with the help of Mahathir. Now Mahathir cannot even help himself let alone help DAP. This is probably the biggest miscalculation in Kit Siang’s more than 50 years political career.

PAKATAN’S GAME OF THRONES

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Azmin Ali took over as the Selangor Menteri Besar on 23rd September 2014, eight months after Lee Chin Cheh’s resignation on 27th January 2014. Lee’s resignation triggered the Kajang by-election on 23rd March 2014, infamously known as the ‘Kajang Move’.

The ‘Kajang Move’ was actually in the wind seven months before that since soon after the general election of 5th May 2013. Even before December 2013 Lee already knew he was going to be sacrificed to make way for Anwar Ibrahim to take over as the new Kajang State Assemblyman — and thereafter the new Selangor Member Besar.

Rafizi Ramli had earlier announced the ‘Kajang Move’ and said that this is a preemption against the very strong likelihood that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak would be ousted by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The question is how did Rafizi know in early 2013 that Mahathir was plotting to oust Najib? And why was Mahathir going to oust Najib? What was the reason or excuse for Mahathir to oust Najib?

Rafizi revealed the plot to oust Najib in 2013, long before Mahathir made his move

Rafizi did not explain that part and no further details were offered — other than in the event Mahathir ousts Najib then Selangor needs to be protected: hence the need to replace Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim with Anwar. Why is Selangor going to fall if Najib is ousted and how would replacing Khalid with Anwar prevent Selangor from falling?

Only Rafizi knows that answer and he is not sharing it with us. So we have to take his word for it that soon after the 5th May 2013 general election Mahathir was plotting to oust Najib, and if this happens then Selangor is going to fall, and to prevent Selangor from falling Anwar must replace Khalid as the new Selangor Menteri Besar.

So, around November-December 2013, Lee was told to resign, which he did on 27th January 2014. The Kajang by-election was held on 23rd March 2014. Khalid was ousted as Menteri Besar on 23rd September 2014 and was replaced with Azmin. In December 2014, Mahathir made his move on Najib by asking Khairuddin Abu Hassan to make a police report against 1MDB (more than one-and-a-half years after the ‘Kajang Move’ was mooted).

So that was how Mahathir was going to oust Najib: by using 1MDB as the excuse. And that means Rafizi was right after all about Mahathir plotting to oust Najib. And that also means Rafizi knew more than one-and-a-half years before it happened that Mahathir was plotting to oust Najib.

But how did Rafizi know one-and-a-half years before it happened that Mahathir was plotting to oust Najib? Simple, because Tony Pua told him. Tony Pua and Lim Kit Siang were aware of Mahathir’s plot to oust Najib since early 2013 because they were part of the plot. In fact, the move to sabotage 1MBD and ensure that it failed was mooted as early as 2012.

Khalid refused to give PKR and DAP the funds needed to finance the 2013 general election

1MDB did not fail. It was made to fail. And it was made to fail because this was going to be the catalyst to get rid of Najib. They needed something big and explosive, so they engineered 1MDB’s failure for this very purpose. And Tony Pua and Kit Siang were in this plot from the very beginning, as was Rafizi. In short, 1MDB was the sacrificial lamb in the plot to oust Najib.

Everything was going well and according to plan all the way from May 2013 to January 2014. Then things began to go wrong. Anwar Ibrahim’s Sodomy 2 case was brought forward (I was told at the behest off a certain State Ruler so as to block Anwar from contesting the Kajang by-election) and it was now impossible for Anwar to contest the March 2014 by-election. They then replaced Anwar with his wife, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

So, instead of Anwar, Dr Wan Azizah was now going to replace Khalid as the new Selangor Menteri Besar. But why, in the first place, do they even need to replace Khalid? They said he was the best, most hardworking, most honest, etc., Menteri Besar in Selangor history. So why the need to replace him?

The answer was actually accidentally revealed by Saifuddin Nasution, which he was not supposed to reveal. Khalid had refused to provide the funds to finance the 2013 general election. They had wanted RM100 million each for PKR and DAP but Khalid would not give them the money. And for that Khalid needed to be ousted. PAS, however, was opposed to Khalid’s ouster and they openly said so.

PKR and DAP wanted Dr Wan Azizah to take over from Khalid but PAS refused to go along with it

After Dr Wan Azizah won the Kajang by-election they told HRH the Sultan of Selangor they wanted her to replace Khalid as the new Menteri Besar. DAP and PKR both sent the Sultan a letter naming Dr Wan Azizah as the new Selangor Menteri Besar. PAS, however, refused to do the same. Kit Siang then met the PAS President, Abdul Hadi Awang, to inform him that if Dr Wan Azizah takes over as the new Selangor Menteri Besar then PAS, DAP and PKR would each get RM100 million.

DAP needed that RM100 million to face the Sarawak State Election in 2016 and with that money they were confident that DAP can take the state. PAS can use its RM100 million to retain Kelantan and take Terengganu, giving them two states. PAS, however, refused to play ball. The issue is not that PAS does not need the RM100 million. It is that by naming Dr Wan Azizah as its choice for Menteri Besar, PAS will have to go into conflict with the Sultan, like what DAP and PKR were doing.

So, Dr Wan Azizah did not become the new Selangor Menteri Besar and DAP did not get its RM100 million for the Sarawak state election. And in 2016 DAP failed to take Sarawak, as the results below show.

Sarawak State Election
2016: BN 72, DAP 7, PKR 3 (total 82)
2011: BN 55, DAP 12, PKR 3, Independent 1 (total 71)
2006: BN 62, DAP 6, PKR 1, SNAP 1, Independent 1 (total 71)
2001: BN 60, DAP 1, Independent 1 (total 62)

Mahathir is supposed to help DAP form the new federal government

Meanwhile, Kit Siang was playing another game at national level. It is not enough they aim to retain Penang, share Selangor with PKR, and take Sarawak. DAP must also take power in Putrajaya.

DAP has a potential to take around 55 or so parliament seats. But they need at least 115 seats to form the new federal government. So that means they are short of about 60 seats. And the 60 seats must come from PKR and the mainly Malay-majority seats. So that means these seats must be ‘stolen’ from Umno and contributed by PAS.

But PAS is no longer a member of the opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan. So that means PAN a.k.a. Amanah must ‘steal’ the PAS seats while PPBM a.k.a. Pribumi must ‘steal’ the Umno seats. In short, PKR, PAN and Pribumi combined must provide the balance 60 seats so that, together with DAP’s 55 seats, they can form the new federal government. But with PKR’s, PAN’s and Pribumi’s combined 60 seats against DAP’s 55, that would mean DAP would be the leader of the new Pakatan Harapan federal government and it would be DAP who will decide who becomes the Prime Minister like in the case of Perak in 2008.

PAS has more or less decided not to have anything to do with PAN and DAP — plus all those who are collaborating with them: which means PKR and Pribumi included. So the new Pakatan Harapan alliance of DAP, PKR, PAN and Pribumi cannot depend on the PAS seats. PAN, however, cannot pull in the seats — or ‘steal’ the PAS seats. And that would mean Mahathir’s Pribumi has to deliver the bulk of the 60 Malay seats if they want to march into Putrajaya.

PAS is no longer going to serve DAP’s agenda of grabbing federal power

But how is Mahathir going to get the bulk of these Malay seats? They would do that by attacking Najib and by using 1MDB to attack Najib. They hope that by bringing down Najib Umno would also be brought down. But now 1MDB is no longer the time-bomb that Mahathir had planned for it to be. There is an even bigger time-bomb. And that time-bomb is the RM44 billion Bank Negara FOREX scandal that by today’s value is about RM77 billion.

Yes, Bank Negara lost RM77 billion in 1992 at today’s value. And Mahathir’s hand in this whole scandal is going to be revealed very soon. So Mahathir can no longer talk about 1MDB. Worse still, Kit Siang can no longer keep quiet and pretend it did not happen. After all, the Bank Negara scandal was a secret until Kit Siang exposed it in 1993 and 1994. And it was Kit Siang who had demanded that a RCI be set up to investigate this matter.

Kit Siang has to now tread very carefully in dealing with Mahathir. Mahathir is going down and if Kit Siang sails too close to Mahathir he is going to be dragged down as well. The safest thing would be for Kit Siang to sail away and let Mahathir sink all on his own. But then with just 55 seats DAP cannot march into Putrajaya. Najib must be falling off his chair and rolling on the floor laughing watching Mahathir and Kit Siang cling to one another and pull each other down.

Pakatan was pushing for a RCI to be set up to investigate the FOREX scandal and now it is going to happen