Can Malaysia’s Opposition Win?
“If, say, somehow the opposition scrapes enough votes to win the next election… I think they will govern for about two years before they get literally, rioted out office”
Nithin Coca, The Diplomat
Despite the massive 1MDB scandal, Malaysia’s ruling party might be in an even better position than in 2013.
The word on the street is that elections in Malaysia will be called this year, ahead of the end of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) five year term. On the surface, it seems like an odd decision. The last election saw BN lose its two-thirds majority in Parliament, along with the popular vote, although a gerrymandered system in which rural Malay votes held more sway than more mixed urban areas kept BN and Prime Minister Najib Razak in power. The nearly four years since have seen scandal after scandal; relentless crackdowns, the fracturing of the opposition, and a massive, international money laundering scheme that implicates even Najib himself.
With everything that’s happened, it’s hard to believe the BN would want to call elections early. But dive in deeper and the on-the-ground reality is starkly different from what one perceives from a distance. BN and its dominant member, the United Malays National Organization (UNMO) are stronger, and more entrenched, today than any point since 2013. Conversely, the Malaysian opposition is more fragmented, and weaker than four years ago. When you factor in everything in BN’s favor, it is unlikely – but not impossible – that this election will see the world’s longest ruling democratic party finally lose power.
A Firmer Grip
The first step that the BN-controlled government took after the shock results in the 2013 election was to resume court proceedings against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, resulting in his five year imprisonment on charges of sodomy – charges many believe were politically motivated. This soon became a trend, as others followed Anwar to court, or jail.
“Two years after his second conviction, opposition leader Anwar continues to be held behind bars, on politically-motivated charges, while countless under opposition parliamentarians have been charged or convicted for Sedition and other repressive laws in order to weaken the opposition,” said Josef Benedict, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for Campaigns for Southeast Asia
While this crackdown was ongoing, the Wall Street Journal broke the story about massive corruption at 1 Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). The deep web of deceit leads all the way up to Najib himself, who many believe is the “Malaysia Official 1” referred to in an ongoing investigation being conducted by the United States Department of Justice.
The government’s reaction to the 1MDB scandal was to clamp down even harder, shutting down any chance of an independent investigation, and harassing journalists or activists who spoke up. Though not unprecedented in Malaysia’s one-party history, which, many forget, saw many waves of oppression, it was a marked shift from the opening up in Malaysia early in the millennium.
For BN, the easiest path toward maintaining power was to make the opposition untenable. Hence the focus on Anwar, as he was the glue that held the unwieldy opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, together. With member parties ranging from those the left-leaning, ethnic Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party to the conservative Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, it was Anwar’s will, not ideology, that kept them in line.
