GE14: The local tipping points

Praba Ganesan, Malay Mail Online

Tip O’Neill is attributed with the saying, “All politics is local.”

I understand we currently are not fans of meddlesome Americans, but perhaps our country’s politicians might want to reflect on the sage advice from the late Speaker of the US House of Representative.

Tip knew a thing or two about winning, and losing.

As we enter the one-year cycle where an election must be had, the lonely thoughts of politicians must surely be turned toward the electorate. The General Election — a day long snapshot of registered voters who oblige the Election Commission and turn up at their designated voting centre with the appropriate identification — will determine who will inherit the 112 parliamentary seats necessary to elect a prime minister.

The prime minister determines the fate of Malaysia.

But before we get all sanctimonious about change and destiny, it all falls back to the local seat and the specifics of the constituency.

I say it again, it’s all local.

Familiarity to the locality and the locality’s familiarity with the candidate will matter massively anytime; but when compounded with an increasingly demanding electorate interacting with social media, this election will have a huge local tangent to it. There are 222 different elections deciding one prime minister.

But why is that understanding not widespread?

General Elections appear not to be localised because of one thing, coverage.

Local news chapters are rare, like the Ipoh Echo, and therefore specialisations are lacking. The major print companies do have presence in key towns outside Kuala Lumpur providing content for regional editions, but they are limited operations. Add to the politicisation of these publications, local news travels via person to person conversations.

In an election, national news companies would be stretched with even the office accountant liable to be sent out to cover the 222 parliamentary and four hundred plus assembly seats. Local news is not invisible to locals, but it is to the national audience. The exaggerated interest in national leaders, amplifies the value of the national campaign as opposed to the events transpiring within the constituency.

But by how much?

The local effect

Khalid Ibrahim won the Ijok state seat in 2008, after losing a by-election there in 2007 to the same opponent K.Parthiban. Five years later, after completing his first term as the non-Umno mentri besar with state sentiments in support for the-defunct Pakatan Rakyat, Khalid’s hometown Ijok would seem a quintessential safe seat.

It wasn’t, because word was rife that he would lose if he stayed on.

While Khalid ran Selangor, the voters in Ijok mattered more than how the other 55 seats in the state felt about the man.

The mentri besar contested in Port Klang instead.

In Kedah’s Kulim Bandar Baru, PKR Secretary-General Saifuddin Nasution was defeated in 2013.

It was unexpected since he was facing Abdul Aziz Sheikh Fadzir, the loser to the often derided Zulkifli Noordin in 2008. Saifuddin was the national face, and three time candidate in the state. Perhaps the voters in Kulim did not see enough of Saifuddin or cared little about his appearances on the national stage, for they turned their backs on him.

In the same general election, a different Saifuddin — Abdullah — lost in Temerloh to PAS youth chief Nasrudin Hassan Tantawi despite being well-covered as deputy higher education minister, a Twitter celebrity and well-liked by young people across the country. Unfortunately, he failed to muster enough young and old votes in his Pahang constituency to fight off the Islamist firebrand.

Saifuddin Abdullah has since left Umno and now is on the other side as secretary general of Pakatan Harapan.

To top it off, constitutional law expert Dr Abdul Aziz Bari put his name on the ballot in his hometown of Sabak Bernam in Selangor and duly lost to his less regarded opponent Mohd Fasiah Mohd Fakeh.

Several of these races swung awkwardly, even though the candidates appeared in strong stead from the national telescope.

Which is why some of us are left scratching our heads when getting the results.

Sadly for the candidates, politics did end up local.

All Putrajaya, pitchforks too

In the flurry of opposition leaders putting out their analyses on why person A from party X trumps person B from party Y, the local game is steadily falling into a secondary concern.

The imagining that Gerik, Terengganu Hulu, Bentong and Alor Gajah can wait and be served in the short window after dissolution is foolhardy at best. These voters are not carbon copies of their parents, and they are most demonstrably fickle.

Of course in the lead-up to voting day, all candidates discard their business suits and miraculously find worn out shoes. But in 2018, will days be enough?

This belated approach seems out of touch, just like many candidates.

To build consensus on local issues, over an ageing bridge or reinvigorating local activities, it takes time. Issues can’t just be subsumed by an arriving aspirant because there is electoral gaiety.

The locals are invested in the issues, they’d like their champions to be invested too.

There are examples of parachute candidates succeeding, but always these stories are accompanied by evidence that their opponents are new as well or been around but withdrawn from the people.

The overconcentration of interest to the power negotiations will wane efforts in the constituency, which is the ballgame.

This is a timely reminder to those in the game to recalibrate to the 222 contests as individual challenges rather than rely purely on the pull of national issues cutting through all concerns. In a close race, it is almost always the local considerations swaying votes to help one candidate over the finishing line.

Early candidate announcement, constituency service hours clocked and coffees shared in late night sessions may have a larger impact than what many think.

But of all currencies, time is one which is most appreciated.

While all politics is local, the information about it being local is well-documented and discussed. It’s time politicians woke up to the truth in it.