Probable scenarios of GE14

If as we have unfortunately expected, just as BN was being greatly hit by HINDRAF in the 2008 election, in this coming election Pakatan Harapan will probably be quietly hit by the Indian community.

Ooi Heng, Elijah & Yasmin

While talking about the General Election (GE) results in the past, we would usually treat Barisan Nasional (BN) as a whole. However, as the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is facing a significant political split, it is necessary to take UMNO’s parliamentary election results out of BN for further assessment.

Whenever UMNO faced a political split that has more meaningful impact, their Malay votes would drop, and their parliamentary seats would be subsequently reduced as well.

Before the 1990 General Election, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah parted ways with Dr Mahathir Mohamad and splintered off from UMNO to form a new party, Semangat 46. As a result, the parliamentary seats won by UMNO dropped by 12 seats, from 83 seats in 1986 to 71 seats in 1990.

Before the 1999 General Election, Anwar Ibrahim was brutally persecuted, leading to the Reformasi political movement, thus party leaders and followers as well as civil society activists joined hands to form a new party, Parti Keadilan Nasional (KeADILan). As for the electoral result, the parliamentary seats won by UMNO dropped by 17 seats, from 89 seats in 1995 to 72 seats in 1999.

Later, on 3 August 2003, Parti Keadilan Nasional officially merged with Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (KEADILAN).

During both of the political splits mentioned above, Mahathir was the President of UMNO and also the Prime Minister. This time, Mahathir is a former UMNO President and a former Prime Minister, after he split with Najib Razak, who is the current UMNO President and also the current Prime Minister, he formed a new party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM or BERSATU).

In this coming election, how many parliamentary seats will UMNO lose is crucial to determine the election result.

There are two scenarios.

The first scenario. This time UMNO’s seat will lose 15 to 20 seats, out of 88 seats in the GE13. Therefore, in this election UMNO will be left with 68 to 73 seats.

This scenario is assuming that every “meaningful split” being faced by UMNO would result in a more severe split than before, and translates into a kind of electoral result. This would mean that UMNO’s performance in 1999 as compared with 1995 was worse than their 1990 result as compared with 1986.

Based on this, their result in the GE14 as compared with the GE13, will be relatively worse than the GE10 (1999) as compared with the GE9 (1995), or comes close to that.

The second scenario. This time UMNO will not only perform worse than before, but also demonstrates the worse fall in history, reducing by 25 to 30 seats. If this is the case, in the GE14 UMNO will be left with 58 to 63 seats.

This scenario is considering the fact that out of the former UMNO leaders who have led the opposition coalition in the past to challenge UMNO, the highest ranking one was a former Deputy Prime Minister. This round, Mahathir is a former Prime Minister who was in office for 22 years, and the two elections before this – the GE12 (2008) and the GE13 (2013) – have successfully changed the political landscape, and also shake up the one-party dominant system which used to be unchallengeable.

Based on this scenario, other than UMNO showing a definite loss of parliamentary seats, the overall result of BN in the GE14 will not repeat the situation in GE10 (1999) where “the Malay voters opposed but the non-Malay voters did not oppose”, or a result where “BN saved UMNO”.

In the 1990 and the 1999 elections, even though UMNO faced splintering, the one-party dominant system had not been thawed. Today, after experiencing the change in political landscape through the 2008 and 2013 elections, the one-party dominant system has loosened. Based on this, this time there shall not be a result where “BN saved UMNO”.

Is the situation in that way?

Let us take a look at the ethnic Chinese votes. BN’s Chinese votes in 2008 dropped by about 30%, and this did not stop falling in 2013 where it dropped further by 22%. Basically, the BN Chinese votes had dropped to its lowest. In the GE14, we shall expect an increase in Chinese votes by BN.

If BN gains Chinese votes by 5% to 10%, it will not be sufficient to result in “BN saving UMNO”. While Pakatan Harapan is fighting aggressively for Malay votes, they also need to manage their loss of Chinese votes, and also the percentage of votes regained by BN.

What Pakatan Harapan cannot underrate the most is the ethnic Indian voters. After BN lost Indian votes in 2008 by about 49%, they have regained 10% in 2013.

According to the electoral map in 2013, there were altogether 60 parliamentary seats with more than 10% of Indian voters, where 52 seats have 10% to 20%, and the remaining 8 seats have 21% to 30%. Even though upon the 2013 election results Pakatan Rakyat had only 10 Indian Members of Parliament (MP), these 60 constituencies with more than 10% Indians would also affect the chance of winning for the non-Indians in these constituencies.

Out of the 60 seats, other than the 10 seats with Indian MPs, Pakatan Rakyat had also 28 seats with non-Indian MPs, who were also affected by the Indian voters. In order to prevent the situation of “BN saving UMNO” from happening in the GE14, Pakatan Harapan should work more on addressing the Indian community’s needs and their issues of concern, and propose an effective policy for it.

The Indian community has a high proportion of lower middle class and lower class families, and they are also under pressure of high goods prices and high cost of living in this goods and services tax (GST) era, just as you and us. Other than this, many of them are having hard times getting a low salary and being insufficient in unemployment protection.

If we only focus on the 30 seats with more than 50% of Chinese voters, and being in delusion of controlling the backflow of the Chinese votes, thinking that these would be sufficient to make use of the splinter in UMNO to obtain a good result, we are afraid that BN will be able to obtain a greater proportion of Indian votes in the GE14.

If as we have unfortunately expected, just as BN was being greatly hit by HINDRAF in the 2008 election, in this coming election Pakatan Harapan will probably be quietly hit by the Indian community. Can the political elites in their comfort zone feel the movements within the marginalized groups?