10 years on, whither the spirit of March 8, 2008?
Kuasa chief executive Praba Ganesan said other reasons that may contribute to the doldrums surrounding PH was because the direction that they choose to go with no longer resonated with the people.
ANITH ADILAH AND EMMANUEL SANTA MARIA CHIN, MALAY MAIL ONLINE
The momentum that drove the Opposition to deny Barisan Nasional (BN) its parliamentary supermajority in 2008 and 2013 seems to have dissipated ahead of the 2018 election, political pundits said.
Democracy outreach organisation Kuasa said this time around, voters have lowered their expectations towards Pakatan Harapan (PH), successor to Pakatan Rakyat that contested the 12th and 13th general elections, possibly because they grew tired of dreaming that the group could take over Putrajaya.
“One of the reasons why it may seem that people are tired is because in 2008, people thought it could have happened. Opposition could have taken Putrajaya. But it didn’t materialise,” Kuasa chief executive Praba Ganesan told Malay Mail.
Praba said other reasons that may contribute to the doldrums surrounding PH was because the direction that they choose to go with no longer resonated with the people.
“Now there is no central theme that people can wrap their heads around. There are things repeatedly talked about by Pakatan leaders like their anti-GST (goods and services tax) stance and freeing Anwar but the theme of the core fight is unclear,” said Praba, referring to PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
“There is no sentiment that can be shared with voters.”
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) geostrategist Prof Azmi Hassan said although PH painted a rosy picture with its manifesto by centring it around the rising cost of living, voters were sceptical that PH could deliver its promises.
“By looking at their manifesto, there is one common theme that is fighting against high cost of living, but can they guarantee these changes? Voters seem like they are wavering because they don’t have the confidence that these promises are deliverable,” he said.
He added that the personal problems surrounding its leaders like Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azmin Ali’s Ijok land deal and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng’s Penang tunnel project — both of which are under corruption investigations — have also affected voters’ confidence.
“I would not say that the support has fizzled out completely, but it cannot be denied that the momentum is going down, compared to the previous polls, what with scandal-ridden PH leaders,” he said.
On March 8, PKR Youth chief Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad spoke about recapturing the spirit of the 2008 polls on March 8, 2008. BN lost its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority in that election for the first time since 1969 and bagged even fewer seats in 2013.
Ibrahim Suffian felt voter sentiments against the current establishment continued to expand after the scandal surrounding 1MDB and the implementation of the GST in 2015
PAS splitting Opposition vote
Political analysts offered mixed opinions on general voter sentiments.
Merdeka Center programmes director Ibrahim Suffian felt voter sentiments against the current establishment continued to expand after the scandal surrounding state investment firm 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) and the implementation of the GST in 2015.
The fragmentation within PH, coupled with the departure of PAS, could translate to a loss of a sizeable Malay voter count, said Ibrahim.
“The big question is whether or not Tun Mahathir [Mohamad] and (his party) PPBM (Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) can help make good of the loss,” he explained.
Ibrahim predicted that PH would lose more votes with PAS’ announcement that it would compete in more than 130 seats in the upcoming elections.
However, he said this would not automatically mean more votes for PAS, as some might still gravitate towards PH or Barisan Nasional (BN).
“Given that undecided Malay votes are not partisan, it is likely many will vote for pragmatism and choose candidates who can bring development and solve problems.
“This will spell almost certain doom for PAS, while being a boost to BN,” he said.
Asia Strategy and Leadership Institute Senior Advisor on International Affairs Dr Oh Ei Sun said he felt momentum for the Opposition has been deflating since the “Blackout 505” rally that was held days after GE13 in 2013.
He believed this was due to many voters who saw futility in trying to change the government, even after Pakatan Rakyat clinched the popular vote during the last polls.
“Many did not have the stamina of going the extra mile, seemingly preferring to lessen their enthusiasm in voting, which will benefit BN,” he said.
Dr Oh admitted the inclusion of PAS candidates participating as a third party in several critical seats would end up being spoiler votes.
“This would serve more to split the Opposition votes, and won’t be hard to see a huge win for Umno, but not necessarily other BN component parties,” he elaborated.
PKR communication chief Fahmi Fadzil said it makes sense that the people are not as vocal as they were 10 years ago because they are somewhat tired.
Pakatan still has support
PKR communication chief Fahmi Fadzil said it was untrue that interest among the people has waned.
The potential PKR candidate for Lembah Pantai said, however, it makes sense that the people are not as vocal as they were 10 years ago because they are somewhat tired.
“The support is still there. I spoke to people in Bangsar. Although they may think Umno candidates, for instance, are good, they still would not support them because they are still attached to the same big boss Datuk Seri Najib Razak, whose baggages are a dealbreaker.
“Even if we do have people who grew disinterested, this group of people may be those who expected personal gains out of joining or supporting PKR and left when they didn’t get what they wanted,” he said.
Fahmi said although PAS has left the main Opposition coalition, there was still some support from PAS fanatics who were with the ‘movement for change’ since 1998 and disagreed with the Islamist party’s withdrawal.
“Although they are hardcore PAS supporters, they have been with Pakatan Rakyat and subsequently Pakatan Harapan since day one. Some are frustrated and do not understand PAS’ departure, especially when Putrajaya is within our reach. These are the people that still support us,” he said.
Countering BN’s ‘Musashi’ technique
Amrita Malhi, a political analyst based in Australian National University, said the ‘quieter’ vibes could be a tactic chosen by the Opposition pact to counter BN’s ‘Musashi’ techniques, as theorised by some quarters.
She explained that the Musashi technique is a reference to a mixed martial arts fighter, whose signature moves involve dragging out fights in an attempt to throw off their opponent.
“In a recent conversation with a BN campaigner, I heard one excellent observation that the government is using the Musashi technique with PH.
“The move involves dragging out the fight and turning up late so that its opponent gets tired and angry from swinging wildly and jumping around, joining the fray only to finish them off.
“So perhaps Pakatan can sense this tactic and is conserving its resources, adding to the impression that nothing much is happening,” she said.
Amrita said although Malaysian voters, politicians and commentators seem to be giving the impression that they are bored with the present election campaign, it is still difficult to quantify momentum.
“I have found that underneath their initial bored appearance, everyone I’ve spoken to is actually interested in the contest.
“Malaysians are sophisticated voters and they can imagine a range of possibilities arising from the election because they sense that both sides are uncomfortable and neither can be certain of a simple or straightforward victory.”
