So what is the value of the Chinese vote in GE14?
(MMO) – The ethnic Chinese community’s votes will still be crucial in the 14th general election (GE14), despite the expected decline of their percentage in the future.
What is the value of the Chinese vote?
Previously, Malay Mail wrote on how votes from the ethnic Chinese community would have reduced significance for the securing of Putrajaya, due to the low number of Chinese-majority seats (30 out of 222, based on GE13 figures) and its relatively small proportion of over 20 per cent of Malaysians.
But the true value of the Chinese vote can be seen when it comes to mixed-ethnicity seats. These are seats where no single ethnic group dominates, or at times are seats won by relatively small margins over rival candidates.
Wong Chin Huat, a research fellow with think-tank Penang Institute, said Chinese voters are “very relevant” and “very important” in determining the outcome in marginal seats and mixed seats, noting that GE13 figures showed the Chinese community accounting for at least 20 per cent of voters in each of the 35 marginal parliamentary seats then.
“Low Chinese turnout may see 16 marginal seats change hand from PH to BN…PH needs them to turn out to win. BN needs them to stay home to win,” he told Malay Mail, having also noted that Chinese-majority seats are “burial grounds for BN”.
He concluded that a low Chinese voter turnout in GE14 by itself may cause PH to lose one-third of the 222 seats up for grabs, while a scenario of a very high Chinese voter turnout coupled with a swing in Malay votes towards PH may result in a change of government.
Social media analytics firm Politweet’s founder Ahmed Kamal Nava said that Chinese votes can make a “big impact” in the mixed seats depending on their percentage, including in scenarios involving multi-corner fights where the Malay voters’ support are divided.
“There is also the PAS factor to consider. They are most likely going to split the Malay vote. So a party that depends on non-Malay support can benefit from this split,” he told Malay Mail.
