Split votes, Shafie factor and possible KDM swing make Sabah one to watch

Julia Chan, Malay Mail Online

Long considered Barisan Nasional’s (BN) “fixed deposits”, Sabah and Sarawak are again set to give the coalition a significant number of parliamentary seats, but observers believe the ruling party will be made to work for it this time around.

In Sabah where long-standing problems linger on, political experts expect voters to demand firm undertakings from BN to deliver on Sabah’s call for more autonomy and resources to tackle rising cost in the state.

With a largely rural voter base, analysts also said bread-and-butter issues will be key and returning in a slow-but-steady BN government to power will be seen as less risky than an unpredictable Opposition.

“But it’s not as simple as it used to be anymore, where parties hand out blue water tanks, household staples touting the BN logo, and more cash handouts. Opposition parties are now teaching the rural voters to take whatever is given by BN but to vote for change,” said political observer Datuk Dr Johan Ariffin Samad.

Improving voter education and sophistication will require more complex politics and here are some factors that any party hoping to win Sabah must navigate.

More Opposition, more problems

Split votes were clearly the Opposition’s downfall in the 2013 general election, costing the defunct Pakatan Rakyat up to five Parliamentary seats and about eight state seats, to hand BN an easy albeit smaller win.

The same is expected this year, as the Opposition field has only become more crowded, but BN’s rivals have at least wisened up and are trying to negotiate and avoid another Mexican standoff.

Pakatan Harapan and Warisan had been circling one another and fired the occasional barb, but ultimately said they have a “done deal” that just needed “fine tuning”, to supporters’ relief.

“Although PH and Warisan, the two biggest Opposition forces, have finally publicly pledged a pact not to contest each other, word is that it is a loose pact, and they’ve ominously left out Amanah, who is no doubt unhappy,” said UMS lecturer Prof Lee Kuok Tiung.

Even if the PH-Warisan pact holds, there is still the matter of Gabungan Sabah, another local pact of four local parties with two state seats, Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan’s Bingkot and Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin’s Klias.

They and former chief minister Datuk Yong Teck Lee, who heads Sabah Progressive Party, have their own loyal following and will appeal to hardcore Sabahan nationalists.

Then there is the latest pact to emerge — Parti Cinta Sabah and Parti Kerjasama Anak Negeri — that also control two state seats, plus a handful of other parties and independents which have yet to come out of the woodworks till nomination day.

“That means, we are looking at a four-corner fight, at least,” Lee said.

“It seems easy to dismiss the smaller parties as irrelevant and not able to win any seats but they may have some impact by taking away votes that could otherwise hand the BN an easy win.”

The Shafie factor

Arguably the biggest challenge for BN here is former Umno vice president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, who holds court in the east coast town of Semporna, famed for its beautiful islands but also a spate of kidnappings in the early 2000s and again in 2013.

A longtime nemesis of caretaker chief minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman, five-time Semporna MP Shafie is a formidable opponent who won with a 20,000-vote majority in 2013, among the biggest margins in the country.

Worryingly for Umno, Shafie has intimate knowledge of his former party’s inner workings, its strengths and, of course, its weaknesses.

When he left Umno in 2016 and formed Warisan with PKR vice president Darell Leiking, Shafie did not hide his intention to take over the state.

The party started strong with a lineup of new leaders and is well on its way to become a force to be reckoned with as new members stream in each month, usually from BN component parties, although Warisan concedes that these may not translate to actual votes.

Still, its draw cannot be trivialised, having attracted former BN leaders and ministers, some of whom previously held senior positions before being cast aside.

“Warisan is now the party to watch, as it gives hope to Sabahans who want change and the implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). Warisan events start with detailed explanations of the clauses in MA63 and the rights of Sabahans that were said to be taken away by the federal government,” said Johan, who is also a member of the G25 pro-moderation group.

“His soft-spoken demeanour is well received by the people, and he seems to draw crowds wherever he goes. It helps that he has the inside scoop, and offers a viable alternative to the BN government.”

However, Shafie must battle uphill despite this seeming popularity. His Bajau roots are regularly mocked by Umno rivals, who use it to label him a “pirate”, in reference to the seafaring Bajau Laut people. They also ask what he has really done for Sabah in all his years as a minister.

While PH is profiting from the association with Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the same cannot be said of Shafie here. In Sabah, the former prime minister is still reviled as the man responsible for the controversial “Projek IC” that caused the state’s illegal immigrant issues and resulting social upheavals.

Shafie is also linked to an ongoing RM1.5 billion embezzlement case from his former Rural and Regional Development Ministry that is being prosecuted by the Malaysian Anti Corruption Commission.

Still, Shafie is putting on a brave front, saying he is focused on winning the state with Warisan.

His conviction and personality is such that, despite heading a fledgling party, he was able to secure a deal with DAP and PKR for Warisan to contest the most seats in the state, squeezing out Amanah and abandoning a possible pact with Parti Cinta Sabah in the process.

“I know what I am doing. I am a seasoned politician,” Shafie said recently.

However, Lee cautioned the party and supporters to temper their expectations, reminding that BN has enjoyed better attendances at its events, before being defeated at the polls.

The KDM vote

In Sabah, voters are grouped as KDM (the acronym for Kadazandusun Murut) that refers to those of Kadazan, Dusun, Murut, Rungus and others along the Momogun racial lines, while Muslim Bumiputera consist of Bajau, Suluk, Brunei Malays, Bisayas and Malays among others.

The latter could have a slight numerical advantage over the former while there is also a sizeable Chinese population, mostly in urban areas, which limited the impact of their predicted swing in 2013.

In that election, it was the KDM that delivered a surprise, showing their unhappiness with BN by serving up several losses and narrow wins for the coalition’s two main KDM parties.

Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Sabah’s oldest KDM party headed by its longest-serving elected representative Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan, contested 13 state seats and lost six.

United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (Upko) lost two.

“The KDM are fed up of being trampled on by their ‘Malayan’ counterparts and complain that their BN leaders cannot make their own decisions on key state affairs without the approval of their Putrajaya bosses,” Johan explained.

He said east Malaysians generally laud Sarawak’s leaders for keeping Umno and its brand of communal politics out of the state where racial politics and sensitivities are still rarities.

Johan cited the recent spat between Umno deputy president Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and PBS as example of how the Malay party dominates the local Sabah outfits. In Kota Marudu on April 9,  Zahid suddenly proposed that PBS “lend” the Matunggong seat to Umno so that it can be returned to BN.

The move was seen as a public put down of Pairin and deputy president Datuk Maximus, which drew rebuke from Sabahans and prompted PBS to toy with the idea of leaving BN.

“Social media users were up in arms, saying Umno should be kicked out of Sabah as the party had shown no respect to their ‘Huguan Siou’. I don’t think Pairin will leave but the younger ones are pushing for it,”said Johan.

“But like it or not, Zahid may be right in being worried that PBS won’t carry its weight in GE14. This election is going to be for the coalition and may be the last that Pairin sees,” he said, adding that PBS’s glory days were now past and the party was in decline.

Key to the KDM support is a convincing resolution of the state’s perennial immigration issue, which the group believes is weighing down the community’s prospects.

Pairin, who heads a task force to collect feedback and propose a solution to the illegal immigrant problem, has not made any apparent success.

Objectively, however, the KDM seats account for just a third of the state’s 60 seats and 10 of the 25 federal spots, meaning that a major swing vote may still not be enough to cost Umno and BN control of the state.

Instead, what is on the line here is the remaining clout that PBS will have over the community.

“PBS must bite the bullet and plod on as this will likely be its last election with their Huguan Siou’ at the helm. If it loses big as it did in GE13, it will be the end of the road for PBS and the Kadazandusun hopes of maintaining status quo in Sabah politics,” Johan said.