What history tells us: Voter turnout and BN’s performance at the polls

Ida Lim, Malay Mail Online

How important is voter turnout and is it linked to how the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition or its predecessor Alliance performed in general elections?

Looking back at past elections, it may not be so straightforward.

In some of the previous general elections since 1978, an increase in voter turnout for federal polls saw BN recording poorer electoral performance in terms of percentage of popular vote and federal seats won, and vice versa.

For example, voter turnout in 1978 went up slightly to 75.3 per cent from the previous 75.09 per cent in 1974. This corresponded with BN getting a slightly reduced popular vote of 57.23 per cent and a slight dip in percentage of parliamentary seats won to 84.42 per cent.

The 1982 elections saw a slightly lower voter turnout of 74.39 per cent but BN got a higher vote share of 60.54 per cent. However, the 1986 elections showed both a reduced voter turnout of 69.97 per cent and a reduced BN vote share of 57.28 per cent.

The trend appeared to resume in the 1990 elections with both a higher voter turnout of 73.01 per cent and a lower BN vote share of 53.38 per cent. The 1995 elections had a lower voter turnout (71.37 per cent) and higher BN vote share (65.15 per cent) while the 1999 elections had a marginally higher voter turnout of 71.95 per cent and a lower BN vote share of 56.53 per cent.

There are several other factors that may possibly explain these results, such as the political mood during a particular election and allegedly unfair redelineation exercises that are seen by the Opposition as boosting BN seat counts.

For example, in 2004, with a voter turnout rate of 73.9 per cent, BN won a high share of the popular vote at 63.81 per cent and achieved a landslide victory. BN won 91 per cent or 199 of the 219 parliamentary seats.

The 2004 election result was partly credited to BN’s Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Known as “Mr Clean”, he took over from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who retired in 2003 after 22 years as the prime minister.

A redelineation exercise in 2003 — which increased the number of federal seats in states favouring the BN — had been cited by some analysts as contributing to the coalition’s 2004 clean sweep of federal seats.

As voter turnout climbed in 2008 to 76 per cent — the highest since the 1964 elections — BN’s popular vote share fell to 51.38 per cent and its win of federal seats was slashed to just 63 per cent or 140 out of 222 parliamentary seats.

The 2008 polls was the first time since 1969 that the BN or the Alliance had failed to secure a two-thirds majority. In ceding 82 seats, the BN was eight seats shy of the 148 required for a two-thirds majority.

For the 2013 elections or the 13th general election (GE13), the voter turnout rate shot to a record high of 84.84 per cent, causing the BN’s popular vote share to fall to its lowest since 1969 with 47.37 per cent.

Amid the higher voter turnout rate, BN again failed to gain a two-thirds majority and ceded even more seats to the federal Opposition, winning 60 per cent or 133 out of the 222 federal seats.

The 2013 results came on the back of a record-high of 2.3 million Malaysians signing up as first-time voters, with most of them young voters. Analysts have also attributed the results to urban and ethnic-based swings away from BN towards the federal opposition.

Back to the present

For GE14, the Election Commission is targeting a voter turnout of 85 per cent — which was the actual turnout five years ago for GE13.

Penang Institute’s research fellow Wong Chin Huat claimed the EC’s fixing of the May 9 polling date — a Wednesday — was clearly aimed at pushing down voter turnout to around 70 per cent.

“But looking at the voters’ angry response and solidarity action, the EC has only challenged voters to go out to vote. I think turnout may reach 75-80 per cent,” he told Malay Mail when contacted, adding that the GE14 turnout was not likely to reach 85 per cent like in GE13.

“High turnout means on-the-fence and normally apathetic voters decide to go to vote,” he said, adding that such voters in today’s context would vote against BN.

“An 85 per cent turnout will make the end of Umno rule likely,” he said, adding that a 70 per cent turnout would very likely reward BN with a two-third majority, saying that this was possible even if BN’s vote share were to drop to a figure like 40 per cent.

Wong said BN would in GE14 likely lose majority votes nationwide and by a substantial margin in Peninsular Malaysia, while East Malaysia and particularly Sarawak may give the coalition more votes.

He said BN would lose its majority vote even with a lower turnout, but said the coalition would still win a comfortable margin in seats.

The weekday factor?

Research firm Ilham Centre executive director Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar said that an ideal voter turnout rate for GE14 would be around 80 per cent.

He noted that the choice of a week day for the GE14 polling date and the current situation would likely result in around 70 per cent of registered voters turning out to cast their ballots, while a weekend polling date could see the voter turnout exceeding 80 per cent.

The midweek choice would cause Opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) to suffer more as compared to BN, owing to the typical demographics and location of these voters, he said.

Hisomuddin pointed out that university graduates and youths who are usually inclined to vote for the federal Opposition due to their age, education levels and exposure to information are usually located far from their polling location.

“Their failure to come out to vote due to logistics factors will affect or reduce the vote to the Opposition/PH,” he told Malay Mail when contacted.

He contrasted this with BN and Umno’s traditional support base of Malay voters, Felda settlers and rural voters, whom he said usually live where they are registered to vote.

“Polling on a working day and midweek will not affect this voter segment much. So the party that will benefit is certainly BN. Although young voters from BN supporters will also reduce, but the percentage is not as big as the segment of Opposition/PH supporters,” he said.

Even with May 9 declared a public holiday, Hisomuddin said the midweek date could still hamper turnout rates in several states such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah which have a high percentage of voters staying in other states and who will need more than a day to comfortably travel.

Hisomuddin said voter turnout rates would be a key factor to determine electoral victory for both PH and BN.

“If the percentage fails to reach 80 per cent, it will be difficult for PH to deny BN,” he said, adding that voter turnout rates would affect results in both marginal seats and seats won with a big vote majority.

A high voter turnout rate would enable a big swing in seats won with a big majority, he said.

Universiti Malaya’s Amer Saifude Ghazali said the voter turnout rate for GE14 could go up to as high as 80 per cent, noting that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s joining of the federal Opposition could encourage more voters to vote due to the increased competitiveness of the electoral fight between PH and BN.

“If the voter turnout rate is high, 80 per cent, it is possible that the contribution to the Opposition will increase,” he said, adding that a high voter turnout rate would widen the gap in popular vote won by BN and PH.

A voter turnout rate of less than 80 per cent would likely result in “status quo” for BN and the federal Opposition, he said.

For GE14, Amer said it was possible that the Opposition would improve on the number of seats won previously and may again win the popular vote, but with the BN still retaining power and with no two-thirds majority achieved by either side.

As for the May 9 voting day, Amer Saifude said it was EC’s right to fix the date.

“The date is not important, what is important is our responsibility as a voter. Whether it is a holiday or not, they will turn out to vote if they want to turn out to vote. To me, it’s not a problem, the government has declared a holiday, employers have given leave, it depends on voters,” the senior lecturer in UM’s Geography Department who has analysed past elections told Malay Mail.

The EC had also pointed out that polling had previously been held on weekdays during past general elections held in 1959 (GE1), 1982 (GE6), 1995 (GE9) and 1999 (GE10).

Dr Mahathir, who now chairs the federal Opposition Pakatan Harapan, had said at least 85 per cent of voter turnout is required for the pact to have a chance of winning.