The end is near

Karamjit Gill

The frenzy of predictions for soccer games as the weekend approaches is nothing compared to the zeal that’s buzzing nationwide for the upcoming general elections. Termed the ‘Battle of Titans’, it would be interesting to see if GE14 lives up to the hype created.

Merdeka Center is back with its Nostradamus-like prophecies. Malaysia’s independent pollster predicts that Barisan Nasional will prevail in GE14 despite losing grounds of popular support. Their survey predicts that Harapan would win 43.7% of the popular vote while BN would obtain 40.3% of the popular vote. In the last general elections, the opposition coalition had 3.49% more of the popular votes compared to BN. In predictions for GE14, the difference in predicted popular vote is 3.4%.

A Selangor government-owned think-tank, Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE), predicted that Harapan would retain Selangor’s legislative assembly but could lose their 2/3 majority, as BN is expected to win more seats in the state. Can we draw anything from these predictions?

In 2013, Merdeka Center ran their surveys too. Prior to the elections, they estimated Pakatan Rakyat to win 89 seats and BN 85 seats. 46 parliamentary seats were labeled a “toss-up” that could have gone any way, and another 2 would fall to parties aligned to neither BN nor PR. What was the final result? They were spot on with regards to the number of seats won by PR, as PR did indeed obtain 89 seats. However, BN outdid the predictions by obtaining 133 seats.

Despite the large turnouts in rallies for Harapan and Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad’s revelation that he is optimistic judging from attendances, how is it the predictions speak a different story?

Firstly, this is because most of Harapan’s rallies are held in areas they triumphed at the previous poll. People in those areas are not going to add to the existing tally anyway. Remember, the huge turnouts were there even during the last elections that everyone thought BN was going to be washed away.

Secondly, one has to consider the fact that PAS is not part of Harapan. Say as we want, but it would be foolish to assume PAS is insignificant. Less crowd turnouts in street rallies after DAP divorced PAS cannot be taken for granted. While it is true that PAS would stand no chance in urban areas, why not take a drive to the rural areas and witness for yourself whether PAS boast more support or Harapan.

Thirdly, the redelineation exercise that recently concluded will only favour BN. In the 1999 general elections under Mahathir’s leadership, BN lost its 2/3 majority and only obtained 56.5% of the popular votes; a drop in over 8% compared to the previous elections. Following a re-delineation exercise prior to GE11, BN got back their 2/3 majority in the 2004 polls, which is also partly due to people rejoicing Mahathir’s resignation.

In the past, we saw rowdy behaviours from BN supporters. Unruliness and lack of respect in their mannerism disgusted us. Today, we are seeing the same kind of individuals supporting Harapan. The slanders and disparaging remarks made on social media to anybody that speak a different language to Harapan has turned many BN supporters to be sleeper cells.

Even national icons like Datuk Lee Chong Wei and Tan Sri Tony Fernandes are being personally attacked. It is disgusting to see individuals who have attributed absolutely nothing to the glory of the country personally slandering those who continuously flutter our flag internationally. These people completely lack the finesse the opposition once boasted.

Mahathir’s lack of apathy towards those who are not in his favour will work against Harapan too. Frstly, Mahathir’s visit to the former PAS President’s grave 16 years after his demise has not worked out well. Especially in the Malay heartland. Subsequently he wanted to visit the grave of Tok Guru Tuan Nik Aziz.

After slandering the faith and ways of the late Tuan Guru Nik Aziz in the past, it came as no surprise that the family pulled down the shutter on Mahathir. Dr. M is a political chameleon that would go to any extent to win.

The youth of today may not know him, but those of us who lived through his tyranny will never cast the ballot to favour him. In less than 48 hours, we shall see if Merdeka Center’s prediction is right again. I am sure many of the older generation are eagerly awaiting to celebrate Mahathir’s first defeat, rather than Prime Minister Najib’s victory.