The Azmin-Rafizi fight: Still too close to call

It’s surprisingly not a straightforward fight in the PKR party polls as Team Azmin and Team Rafizi slog it out. 

Philip Golingai, The Star

ON paper, it looks like an easy fight for a federal minister to defend his PKR deputy president post against a challenger without the trappings of power.

Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali is Economic Affairs Minister, two-term PKR deputy president and Gombak MP while Rafizi Ramli is a PKR vice president.

And yet after voting in Penang, Johor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Federal Territories and part of Selangor, Azmin, the incumbent, is leading only by 747 votes in the straight fight with Rafizi. Azmin has 50.65% (28,972 votes) of the total votes while Rafizi has 49.35% (28,225 votes).

Bridget Welsh, a political science lecturer and Southeast Asia expert at John Cabot University in Rome, is surprised that the PKR deputy president contest is close.

The projection was that Azmin would be leading because he holds positions and he is the incumbent while Rafizi is the challenger, Welsh said. However, Rafizi was able to capture so much support despite not having any resources or position. The contest is close, Welsh surmised, because Rafizi has successfully promoted himself as being more of a reformer than Azmin and that he is outside the system.

“There’s also the question of the relationship between Anwar and Rafizi. Rafizi is seen as portraying himself as very close to Anwar and vice versa,” she said, referring to PKR president-elect Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

The deputy president contest, said Welsh, is implicitly connected to the Anwar’s leadership and the PKR succession plan.

“Anwar is seen to be close to Rafizi. They need each other, in the sense that Rafizi has no other position besides his party position. Azmin, in contrast, is already a minister and previously the Selangor Mentri Besar.

“His power comes from the resources he has and he is seen as potentially being an alternative direction for the party,” she said.

The 700-plus votes gap between the two leaders, said political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, is because Rafizi is not an ordinary leader in PKR.

Although the former Pandan MP did not contest in GE14, Mazlan said, he brought up issues which got the support of voters.

Also, he added, the public perception that Anwar has “blessed” Rafizi as the deputy president candidate has given him an edge.

To political researcher and former Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Associate Professor Abdul Latiff Mohd Ibrahim, the close fight between Azmin and Rafizi shows that both candidates have their respective support base.

“Considering how PKR has developed since its inception, two quite obvious trends can be discerned – one rooting for ‘reformasi’ and the original principles of the party as opposed to the other that developed later that did not stress the reformasi part so much as embracing newer realities in politics,” he said.

“The small margin (between the two) shows that these trends seem to have quite similar support.”

Abdul Latiff added: “In politics, while government positions help elevate a person’s standing in the party, it is not a guarantee. Party people usually have other concerns as well.”

Selangor, which will be holding part of its polls today and on Oct 28, is a crucial state for the PKR deputy president contenders, said Mazlan.

On paper, Azmin’s influence in Selangor is strong as it is the political base of the Gombak MP and Bukit Antarabangsa assemblyman. However, in the Selangor polls last week, Rafizi managed to win three divisions out of nine which went to poll.

If Azmin narrowly wins in Selangor today and next week, it will give an edge to Rafizi as he can cover his lost in other states like Sabah and Sarawak, said Mazlan.

“I see the momentum of Anwar (after winning the Port Dickson by-election) helping Rafizi as it might influence PKR members observing the political change as they think that Anwar will be the next Prime Minister.

“Rafizi has an edge because party members might want a No 2 who is seganding (match) with the president.”

All states are crucial when a party election is held, said Abdul Latiff.

“It is just like the general election because one could win with just a sliver of votes. Considering that the (deputy president) contest is so close, every vote will count. With the results in for most of the states, the remaining states become even more crucial for the contenders,” he said.

Sabah and Sarawak, said Welsh, will be very important in part because of the number voters in the two states where members will be voting on Nov 3 and 4 in Sabah and Nov 10 in Sarawak.

“It is towards the end of the campaign so the members know that they can influence the result. The loyalties of the members in these states have been comparatively less fixed which make them very important campaign arena,” she said.

She added that Sabah was too close to call while Azmin would have a lead in Sarawak but with “lots of new voters in the state, we don’t know exactly where that’s going to lead.”

Abdul Latiff said Azmin was leading and if it persists – even by the smallest margins – then he should retain his deputy president post.

“But in the interim, some of the results have been challenged on allegations of vote buying. If the playing field is level, Rafizi would probably win,” he said.

“This contest has been mired in controversy with allegations of fraud due to vote buying. So, if one has the political and material clout, this would definitely be advantageous.”

Mazlan expects that Rafizi has a chance to win the deputy president post as the challenger’s momentum was building up.

“I’ve noticed that there are many new PKR members who have been given the chance to vote and they could be voting for Rafizi. The sentiment among them – especially the fence sitters – is to give their support to the candidate that the president-elect trusted,” he said.

Rafizi might be breathing down Azmin’s neck in the deputy president race, however, his team – except for vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar are trailing against contenders from Team Azmin. Team Azmin is also leading in the party’s women and youth contest.

In the contest for the four vice-president post, Nurul Izzah is leading the pack while Team Azmin’s Ampang MP Zuraida Kamaruddin, Tian Chua, Hang Tuah MP Datuk Seri Shamsul Iskandar (the trio are incumbents) and Kuala Langat MP Dr Xavier Jayakumar are in second to fifth position.

Team Rafizi’s Sungai Petani MP Datuk Johari Abdul, Selayang MP William Leong and Sungai Siput MP S. Kesavan are way behind in the vice-president race.

“Nurul Izzah crosses both camps to a certain degree. Plus, she’s an incumbent so she’s in a stronger position than some of the others and of course she’s related to the Anwar family which the party has been very closely tied to,” she said.

Abdul Latiff said the other candidates from Team Rafizi were trailing probably due to their not-so-high profile in the party.

“Though Johari Abdul’s situation seems a bit odd. He should have done better,” he noted.

Mazlan agreed, pointing out that Zuraida, Xavier and Tian Chua were iconic PKR leaders who have been well-known since the Reformasi days and they were consistent in their struggle to defend Anwar and to just politics.

Today, some of the Selangor PKR divisions will go to poll. It is Azmin’s political base, and to nail the deputy president post, he needs to win big.