A 50/50 chance in Rantau

Philip Golingai, The Star

THE Rantau town in Negri Sembilan is practically a one-street town where almost everybody knows everybody.

A day after the nomination for Rantau state by-election, I visited the small town to get a feel of who among the four candidates was popular among the locals.

Incumbent Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan of Barisan Nasional/Umno is facing Dr S. Streram of Pakatan Harapan/PKR and two independents, Mohd Nor Yassin and R. Malarvizhi.

“Who do you think will win?” I asked a 40-something Indian coffee shop owner.

“How about Dr Streram?” I said.

“He is a newcomer. He is not from here. He is from Nilai (in Negri Sembilan). We do not know his track record. He also has muka garang (a fierce face),” said the shop owner.

Mohamad, according to him, has a 55% to 60% chance of winning. He predicted that about 80% of the total Malay voters, 20% of Chinese and 50% Indians would pick the acting Umno president.

A few shops away was a 50-something Chinese tending a stall. I posed the same question to him.

He pointed at a two-metre poster next to him. It was Mat Hasan in the blue shirt of Barisan. Interesting, I thought, as he was one of the rare Chinese supporting Barisan.

“How about the Chinese community? Who will they vote for?” I said.

“Lima puluh-lima puluh (fifty-fifty). Older Chinese will vote for Mat Hasan as dia ada buat budi (has done good deeds). The young Chinese will not vote for him. But they are in KL and they might not come back to vote,” he said.

The stall owner said the Malays would vote for the Umno candidate and therefore the Indians would decide who wins Rantau.

“Whoever wins, it will be the same,” he said as a matter-of-factly.

Next door was a 7-Eleven store and I asked a Malay youth who would win.

“Tok Mat,” the 20-something shop assistant said. “He is orang sini (someone from here).”

On Friday night, I called Dr Streram to get his assessment.

“I’m the underdog. But I am going to win,” he said.

On the man-on-the-street survey that I did which favoured the incumbent, Streram said that they don’t know him yet. He believed once these voters get to know him, they would be voting for him.

“They say I’m garang, so they should get to know me as I’m very friendly and approachable,” he said with a laugh.

The PKR politician felt that the Rantau voters are swinging towards him.

The Rantau state seat is in Rembau parliamentary constituency which is sandwiched between Seremban and Port Dickson.

The Rantau state seat and the Port Dickson parliamentary seat are almost similar demographically. Rantau has 54% Malay voters, Indian (27%) and Chinese (19%) whereas Port Dickson has 43% Malay, 33% Chinese and 22% Indians.

In terms of voter demographic, it is the type of seat PKR usually wins.

However, while PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim winning Port Dickson was a foregone conclusion, it is not so for Rantau.

Like Rantau, Port Dickson saw a former MB contesting in its by-election.

However, Universiti Utara Malaysia political lecturer Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said Datuk Seri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad, who contested as an independent in Port Dickson, was a spent force while Mohamad is the acting Umno president.

“Umno will not allow its acting president to lose,” he said.

Mohd Azizuddin also said that Port Dickson was a stronghold of PKR while Rantau was the home ground of Mohamad.

When I did a man-on-the-street survey a day after nominations for Port Dickson, it was obvious that Anwar would win the seat, as many said they would support the government of the day. Fishermen there who were die-hard Umno supporters were still in shock that Umno had lost the Federal and state government. They were also not enthusiastic with the by-election as Umno was not contesting.

The mood is different in Rantau.

If the blue Barisan posters and flags could vote, Mohamad would win Rantau hands down. The Umno members and supporters are at a high especially after Barisan’s two victories in Cameron Highlands parliament and Semenyih state by-elections.

In the Port Dickson by-election, the euphoria of Pakatan winning the Federal and state government was at a high. It was a honeymoon period for the coalition of hope.

But with Pakatan’s many U-turns and undelivered promises, the rakyat’s mood has changed.

For many Malays, there is also a post-Icerd (International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination) mood against Pakatan. Plus, PAS and Umno now have a united front unlike in Port Dickson, where PAS candidate received little support from Umno.

However, Mohd Azizuddin did not think that PAS would contribute significant votes for Barisan in Rantau as the Islamist party was not a big force in the constituency, unlike in Semenyih.

Ibdilillah Ishak, who is the special aide to Rembau MP Khairy Jamaluddin (Umno), has a different view.

Firstly, Ibdil said Rantau and Port Dickson by-elections were different in a sense that PD was a parliamentary seat and Rantau is a state seat. At the same time, they have two totally different demographics, he said.

“In PD, the total non-Malay votes is more than the Malay votes, while in Rantau it’s about 57% for the Malay. Rantau is also located in the federal constituency of Rembau that has always been a BN stronghold while PD, which was formerly Telok Kemang, fell in 2008 when the Indian and Chinese Tsunami happened,” he said.

“The PD by-election was a forced move by PKR in an effort to consolidate Anwar as MP and ensure that he could be PM straight away in case something happened to Tun (Dr Mahathir Mohamad).

“PD was also not contested by BN, which is PH’s only direct rival. It was contested by PAS, which lacks support in Port Dickson, a non-Malay majority parliamentary constituency. “

Rantau is a mixed seat, Ibdil added.

“It’s a chance for us to see if Umno is still relevant among the non-Malays and if Umno and PAS’ collaboration is accepted by them,” he said.

Secondly, Tok Mat is Umno acting president. Someone who has proven to be a force to reckon with, he said.

A loss for him in Rantau would end his political career but a win, with support from all races, would prove to be the evidence or the “blessing” Umno needs to continue their partnership with PAS.

Thirdly, said Ibdil, this by-election was also a referendum on Pakatan’s performance, unlike the Port Dickson by-election.

Rantau is a place where Barisan and Pakatan had everything to lose, he noted.

“BN would be losing their acting president if they lose, whilst PH would be losing their third straight by-election, proving that their performance as government has been nothing but disappointing.”

For Mohd Azizuddin, it was not a given that Barisan would win Rantau.

He said PKR, especially Anwar, was campaigning hard to ensure the victory of its candidate. Umno, he added, had lost the advantage of being the Federal and state government.

Who wins the seat, the academician said, would depend on voter turnout.

He predicted that if it was below 70%, Barisan was likely to win and if it was above 70% Pakatan was expected to win.

“Will you go to vote?” I asked the Chinese stall owner.

“It depends if someone brings me to vote. If not, I will not,” he said.

Surely in a small town where almost everybody knows everybody, someone will bring him to the nearby polling station.

It is 50/50 in Rantau with a slight edge for orang lama (veteran) Tok Mat. It all depends on the voter turnout.