A vote for MCA is a vote for Umno-PAS, says DAP

Hence DAP’s propaganda in the Tanjung Piai by-election is backfiring. It does not matter whether the Chinese voters are united. What matters is that the Malay voters are united. In places like Penang where more than 70% of the voters are Chinese, it may make a difference. But in places where the Malays are more than 50% of the voters, Malay unity is more important than Chinese unity.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

There are 32 state seats and 8 parliament seats in Terengganu. The 8 parliament seats are “Malay” seats while out of the 32 state seats, 31 are “Malay” and 1 is “Chinese”. The 1 “Chinese” seat of “Bandar” or “Kampung Cina” (in Kuala Terengganu) is MCA.

MCA won this “Chinese” seat in the 1959, 1964, 1969, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1995, 2004 and 2008 general elections (a total of 10 general elections).

MCA lost that seat in the 1990, 1999, 2013 and 2018 general elections.

MCA’s Wong Foon Meng was supported by the Malays but rejected by the Chinese in Kuala Terengganu

In the 1990 general election, Umno was split between Umno Baru and Semangat 46. So, MCA lost because the Malay voters were split.

In the 1999 general election, Umno was split between the Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad faction and the Anwar Ibrahim Reformasi/Parti Keadilan faction. So, MCA lost because the Malay voters were split.

In the 2013 and 2018 general elections, Umno was split between the Mahathir faction and the Najib Tun Razak faction. So, MCA lost both times because the Malay voters were split.

When MCA was split in the 1982, 1986 and 2008 general elections, MCA did not lose the Kuala Terengganu seat, they still won it. Only when Umno was split in the 1990, 1999, 2013 and 2018 general elections did MCA lose the seat.

The MCA candidate for the 1990, 1995 and 1999 general elections was Wong Foon Meng. Wong lost in 1990 and 1999 because Umno was split. But Wong won in 1995 not due to Chinese votes, because the Chinese voted PAS. Wong won because of the Malay votes. So, while the Chinese of Kampung Cina voted PAS, the Malays of Losong and Hiliran voted MCA.

Umno and PAS won 100% of the seats in Terengganu and Kelantan while Pakatan Harapan got totally wiped out

Hence to say Malays vote Malay and Chinese vote Chinese is not entirely true. In the Malay heartland states of Terengganu and Kelantan, party sentiments sometimes override racial considerations depending on the situation then. And when MCA is split it has no bearing on Chinese candidates in the Malay heartland. Only when Umno is split will it affect Chinese candidates in places such as Terengganu and Kelantan.

So, is Umno united in Tanjung Piai? More importantly, are Umno and PAS united in Tanjung Piai?

There are a total of 99 state and parliament seats in the Malay heartland states of Terengganu and Kelantan and, in the 2018 general election, 100% were won by Umno and PAS (one-third: two-thirds respectively). Pakatan Harapan — or PPBM, PKR, Amanah and DAP — won zero.

Hence, Umno+PAS=100%.

In fact, had Umno and PAS formed a “Penyatuan Ummah” or “Muafakat Nasional” for the 2018 general election, they would have won Kedah and Perak as well where it is Malay and not Chinese votes that matter more.

The Malays consider Pakatan Harapan a Chinese-dominated coalition and a threat to Malay-Muslim interests

DAP proudly boasts that almost 100% of the Chinese support Pakatan Harapan (or rather DAP). If that is true then DAP and Pakatan Harapan have already reached the peak and there is nowhere more to go. For Pakatan Harapan to go higher it has to be on the non-Chinese votes.

But then Pakatan Harapan has also already peaked for the Malay or non-Chinese votes. Pakatan Harapan cannot go any higher than it did in the 2018 general election. The only direction to go from here on is down.

The 2018 general election was the best ever for Pakatan Harapan. At best Pakatan Harapan can maintain its 2018 general election performance. It cannot do better than that. If DAP or Pakatan Harapan cannot improve its performance (meaning the economy) and deliver its election promises, the almost 100% Chinese support would erode to 70-75%.

The Malays know that Dr Mahathir Mohamad needs Lim Kit Siang and DAP to be able to stay in power, and if the support shifts to Anwar Ibrahim, then Mahathir is out

The Malays see Malay interests and Islam under threat from the non-Malays, in particular from DAP. A vote for PPBM, PKR or Amanah is a vote for DAP. Hence the Malays would rather give their votes to MCA or MIC (which DAP says is a vote for Umno-PAS) than give their vote to Pakatan Harapan.

DAP’s propaganda that a vote for MCA (in the Tanjung Piai by-election) is a vote for Umno-PAS, which is supposed to frighten the Chinese voters, actually works in favour of MCA. While this propaganda (that a vote for MCA is a vote for Umno-PAS) may or may not frighten the Chinese, it gives the Malays motivation to vote for MCA. In essence, MCA wins more Malay votes than it loses Chinese votes.

Hence DAP’s propaganda in the Tanjung Piai by-election is backfiring. It does not matter whether the Chinese voters are united. What matters is that the Malay voters are united. In places like Penang where more than 70% of the voters are Chinese, it may make a difference. But in places where the Malays are more than 50% of the voters, Malay unity is more important than Chinese unity.