Malaysia, China and Vietnam in ‘dangerous, ongoing game of chicken’ in South China Sea

(SCMP) – A fresh stand-off over energy exploration in the disputed South China Sea that involves Malaysia, China and Vietnam has been brewing for weeks out of the public eye, a Washington-based think tank said on Saturday, as it questioned why the two smaller countries were confronting each instead of putting up a united front against Beijing.

This follows the highly publicised stand-off between Indonesian and Chinese vessels near the Southeast Asian country’s Natuna islands in December.

In a report on its website, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) offered a blow-by-blow account of what it termed “a dangerous, ongoing game of chicken” involving navy vessels, coastguard boats, militia vessels, a drill ship called the West Capella, as well as offshore supply ships that stretches back to October last year.

The West Capella – contracted by the Malaysian state energy firm Petronas – is at the centre of the stand-off.

AMTI, which is affiliated to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it made its findings based on the vessels’ automatic identification system (AIS) broadcasts and commercial satellite imagery.

The three countries have not publicly commented on this stand-off, even though Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah this week said Kuala Lumpur was seeking an agreement with Vietnam to stop “encroachment” of deep-sea fisherman from the Indochinese country into Malaysia’s territorial waters off its east coast.

Malaysia and Vietnam are among the Southeast Asian nations that are challenging Beijing’s claim of almost the entirety of the South China Sea through its so-called nine-dash line boundary.

The two countries in 2009 made a joint submission for a part of their continental shelf in the southern part of the oil- and gas-rich waters, and Kuala Lumpur made a further claim for the northern section of the sea late last year. That latest move drew condemnation from China, which has long maintained that it has “historical rights” to the waters.

Counter claimants however argue that the nine-dash boundary is antithetical to their rights to territorial waters as set out by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Taiwan – viewed by Beijing as a renegade province – has a similar claim as the mainland.

The AMTI said the latest findings reiterated “the new normal in the South China Sea”.

“New energy development by Southeast Asian states anywhere within the nine-dash line will be met by persistent, high-risk intimidation from Chinese law enforcement and paramilitary vessels,” the think tank said.

The current stand-off was continuing at the time of publication of the report, the AMTI report said.

“The West Capella and its offshore supply vessels continue to operate in block ND1,” it said, referring to a Malaysian oil and gas block in the area for which Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur had submitted a joint claim.

The events of recent weeks have occurred in ND1 and an adjacent block, ND2.

“Vietnamese militia vessels remain on-station monitoring and likely demanding [the West Capella] halt its work,” the AMTI said.

“Chinese militia and law enforcement ships continue to approach dangerously close to the rig and supply vessels, creating risks of collision as they have during other oil and gas operations over the last year.

“So far, the Malaysian government appears determined to continue the exploration. But China’s response sends a message that actual production of oil and gas in blocks ND1 and ND2 would be prohibitively risky for any commercial actor, including Petronas,” it said.

While the motivations of China and Vietnam “seem clear”, the AMTI questioned the motivations of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s government.

“The biggest question is why the Malaysian government chose to ignore the spirit of the 2009 joint submission with Vietnam and, in so doing, undermine whatever solidarity Southeast Asian parties might hope to build in their oil and gas disputes with Beijing.”

The think tank said Petronas “appears to be disregarding” the 2009 accord between Kuala Lumpur and Hanoi to make a joint claim “without prejudice to its eventual delimitation”.

Among the Chinese Coast Guard vessels that were that involved in the stand-off was the 5,000-tonne Zhaolai-class 5403 – which AMTI described as “one of the most intimidating ships in the Chinese Coast Guard arsenal”.

On the Malaysian side, the navy sent the guided missile destroyer KD Jebat to guard and patrol the area where the West Capella was operating from January 5-9.

Based on AIS data, Malaysia also sent the patrol vessel KD Kelantan between late January and early February, as well as the maritime enforcement vessel Bagan Datuk later in February.

The AMTI said its report was “necessarily an incomplete picture” as it only captured data about ships that broadcast AIS, or which happened to be in the area when a satellite image was captured.

“It is entirely likely that additional naval, air, law enforcement, and militia assets from all sides have been involved over the last two months,” the think tank said.